Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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ECB Preview, March 11

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

Christine Lagarde will chair her third ECB meeting Thursday.  She faces growing risks of recession but also widespread skepticism within the ECB regarding the efficacy of negative rates.  Markets have priced in several rate cuts this year.  Here, we discuss what measures the ECB may take this week.

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Low Rates As Chaos, Not ‘Stimulus’

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

UST Yield & Money Alternates, 2007-2009
Basic recession economics says that when you end up with too much of some commodity, too much inventory that you can’t otherwise sell, you have to cut the price in order to move it. Discounting is a feature of those times. What about a monetary panic? This might sound weird, but same thing.

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Is this the Beginning of a Recession?

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the expected outcome. Most observers seem to question only the potential length and depth of the coming downturn.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH Italian Top 3 in the Pandemic Deaths Surge 57% THIS GOES DEEP !

2020-03-10

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH- Italian- Top 3 in the Pandemic. Deaths Surge 57%. THIS GOES DEEP ! CHARLES HUGH SMITH- Italian- Top 3 in the Pandemic. Deaths Surge 57%. THIS GOES DEEP ! CHARLES HUGH SMITH- Italian- Top 3 in the Pandemic. Deaths Surge 57%. THIS GOES DEEP ! https://youtu.be/TPSmBmHLP5E

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Dollar Firm as Global Financial Markets Calm

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

Global financial markets are finally seeing a measure of calm return; local Chinese media is sounding more confident that the situation is now under control. The White House will announce fiscal measures today; five states hold primaries and one holds a caucus with 352 total pledged delegates up for grabs.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: Italian- Top 3 in the Pandemic. Deaths Surge 57%. THIS GOES DEEP !

2020-03-10

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For the full transcript go to: https://www.financialanalysis.tv #Financial News #Silver News #Gold #Bix Weir #RoadToRoota #Kyle Bass #Realist News #Greg Mannarino #Rob Kirby #Reluctant Preppers #The Next Newss #Maneco64 #Mike Maloney #Gold Silver #Eric Sprott #Jim Rickards #David Morgan #Peter Schiff #Max Keiser #Robert Kiyosaki #SilverDoctors #Jim Willie #Clif High #Ron Paul# Pastor Williams #Bill …

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Mangroves: how they help the ocean | The Economist

2020-03-09

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Mangrove forests are vital for the health of the planet, but they’re rapidly disappearing. Meet the the pioneering scientists who are harnessing the hidden power of mangroves to help tackle climate change. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video …

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What the Fed Can Do: Print and Buy, Buy, Buy

2020-03-09

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2020-03-09

Assets: Total Assets, 2019-2020
Everyone with a pension fund or 401K invested in stocks better hope the Fed becomes the buyer of last resort, and soon. Much has been written about what the Federal Reserve cannot do: it can't stop the Covid-19 pandemic or reverse the economic damage unleashed by the pandemic.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-09

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2020-03-09

Risk-off sentiment continues to build as the coronavirus spreads. Fed easing expectations continue to intensify; February inflation readings for the US will be reported this week. The ECB meets Thursday and markets are split; the stronger euro is doing the eurozone economy no favors. The UK has a heavy data release schedule Wednesday; UK government also releases its budget that day.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: Coronavirus, Italian Nightmare – THIS GOES DEEP!

2020-03-08

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EXCLUSIVE REPORTS ON PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE WITCH HUNT! LP(S) – Maga LP(S) – Media LP(S) – Epic LP(S) – Election EDUCATE YOURSELF IMMEDIATELY: LP(S) – Enemy LP(S) – Dead LP(S) – Ratio PREPARE FOR THE BEAR MARKET: LP(S) – Bear Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Charlie Munger And Other Notable Billionaires Have All Focused On …

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Like Repo, The Labor Lie

2020-03-08

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2020-03-08

Federal Reserve Beige Book, 2010-2020
The Federal Reserve has been trying to propagate two big lies about the economy. Actually, it’s three but the third is really a combination of the first two. To start with, monetary authorities have been claiming that growing liquidity problems were the result of either “too many” Treasuries (haven’t heard that one in a while) or the combination of otherwise benign technical factors.

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The Gathering Storm: Could Covid-19 Overwhelm Us in the Months Ahead?

2020-03-07

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2020-03-07

Exponential growth and the expansion of the coronavirus
Either the science is wrong and the complacent will be proven correct, or the science is correct and the complacent will be wrong. The present disconnect between the science of Covid-19 and the status quo's complacency is truly crazy-making, as we face a binary situation: either the science is correct and all the complacent are wrong, or the science is false and all the complacent are correct that the virus is no big deal and nothing to fret about.

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Charles Hugh Smith EXCLUSIVE: Coronavirus PARALYZES Global Economy – RECESSION 100%!

2020-03-06

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EXCLUSIVE REPORTS ON PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE WITCH HUNT! LP(S) – Maga LP(S) – Media LP(S) – Epic LP(S) – Election EDUCATE YOURSELF IMMEDIATELY: LP(S) – Enemy LP(S) – Dead LP(S) – Ratio PREPARE FOR THE BEAR MARKET: LP(S) – Bear Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Charlie Munger And Other Notable Billionaires Have All Focused On …

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Yossi Kaplan and Charles Hugh Smith on the Virus and the New World Order

2020-03-06

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Yossi Kaplan and Charles Hugh Smith on the Virus and the New World Order http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/03/05/the-roundtable-insight-yossi-kaplan-and-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-virus-and-the-new-world-order/

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Take Your Pick of PMI’s Today, But It’s Not Really An Either/Or

2020-03-06

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2020-03-06

PMI's & GDP, 2012-2020
Take your pick, apparently. On the one hand, IHS Markit confirmed its flash estimate for the US economy during February. Late last month the group had reported a sobering guess for current conditions. According to its surveys of both manufacturers and service sector companies, the system stumbled badly last month, the composite PMI tumbling to 49.6 from 53.3 in January.

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The Greenspan Moon Cult

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

US Treasury Curve, 2007-2019
Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events.

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Updated Democratic Primary Timeline

2020-03-05

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2020-03-05

RCP Betting Average
Super Tuesday has come and gone. Bloomberg has suspended his campaign after an extremely poor showing, and Warren is expected to follow suit soon. Here is our updated take on the likely Democratic candidate.

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Election 2020: How do America’s presidential primaries work? | The Economist

2020-03-04

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As the Democratic primary race enters its busiest period, John Prideaux, The Economist’s US editor, gives his essential guide to understanding the process by which America’s presidential candidates are chosen. Read more here: https://econ.st/2IdvpvD Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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A Day For Rate Cuts

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Total Credit Market, 1980-2015
Well, that wasn’t he had in mind. The whole point of a rate cut, any rate cut let alone an emergency fifty, is to signal especially the stock market that the Fed is in the business of…something. The public has been led, by and large, to assume that something good happens when the Fed Chair shows up on TV.

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Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles?

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

All Sectors Debt Securities and loans, 1960-2019
Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it's already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask this question is the entire bull mania of the 21st century has been based on a permanently high rate of expansion of leverage and debt.

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