Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-23

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2020-03-23

Risk sentiment is likely to remain under pressure this week as the impact of the coronavirus continues to spread; demand for dollars remains strong. As of this writing, the Senate-led aid bill has stalled; the US economic outlook is getting more dire; Canada is experiencing similar headwinds. This is a big data week for the UK; eurozone March flash PMIs will be reported Tuesday; oil prices continue to slide.

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Corona’s Exponential Curve Slope Tracking, March 20

2020-03-22

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2020-03-22

Curve Trends Corona March 20 Slope Derivation
Key for understanding the expansion of the Coronavirus, is the slope (or steepness / derivation) of the curve. This post compares the slope values of different countries.

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Stagnation Never Looked So Good: A Peak Ahead

2020-03-21

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2020-03-21

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2020
Forward-looking data is starting to trickle in. Germany has been a main area of interest for us right from the beginning, and by beginning I mean Euro$ #4 rather than just COVID-19. What has happened to the German economy has ended up happening everywhere else, a true bellwether especially manufacturing and industry.

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The new coronavirus: how should the world respond? | The Economist

2020-03-20

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The new coronavirus is shutting down planet Earth. What lessons can the rest of the world learn from China, Singapore and South Korea? Find all of The Economist’s coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.trib.al/LnKtbv8 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Further reading: Covid-19 interactive web-based map from the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource …

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Charles Hugh Smith warns of Global Collapse⚠️ Market is Broken with Banking System

2020-03-20

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For the full transcript go to: https://www.financialanalysis.tv #Financial News #Silver News #Gold #Bix Weir #RoadToRoota #Kyle Bass #Realist News #Greg Mannarino #Rob Kirby #Reluctant Preppers #The Next Newss #Maneco64 #Mike Maloney #Gold Silver #Eric Sprott #Jim Rickards #David Morgan #Peter Schiff #Max Keiser #Robert Kiyosaki #SilverDoctors #Jim Willie #Clif High #Ron Paul# Pastor Williams #Bill …

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Dollar Firm, Markets Unsettled Despite Aggressive Policy Responses Worldwide

2020-03-20

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2020-03-20

Credit Risk Rising, 2019-2020
Markets remain unsettled even as policymakers worldwide continue to take aggressive emergency measures; the dollar continues to power higher. Fed rolled out another crisis-era program last night; US Senate passed the House virus relief bill by a 90-8 vote. ECB held an emergency call last night and announced an additional bond purchase program to the tune of €750 bln that now includes commercial paper.

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The Global Repricing of Assets Can’t Be Stopped

2020-03-19

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2020-03-19

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding 2008-2019
All bubbles pop, period. The financial elites are pushing a narrative that asset prices, sales and profits will all return to January 2020 levels as soon as the Covid-19 pandemic fades. Get real, baby. Nothing is going back to January 2020 levels. Rather than the "V-shaped recovery" expected by Goldman Sachs et al., the crash in asset prices will eventually gather momentum.

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Charles Hugh Smith – Why Are Things Falling Apart?

2020-03-18

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Charles Hugh Smith, author/proprietor of OfTwoMinds.com explains the self-inflicted pathology that threatens the West’s financial comfort and the liberties we have enjoyed for generations.

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Is GFC2 Over?

2020-03-18

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2020-03-18

TED Spread, 2018-2020
Is it over? That’s the question everyone is asking about both major crises, the answer is more obvious for only the one. As it pertains to the pandemic, no, it is not. Still the early stages. The other crisis, the global dollar run? Not looking like it, either.

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Covid-19 Helicopter Money: Go Big Now or Go Home

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

This is why it's imperative to go big now, and make plans to sustain the most vulnerable households and small employers not for two weeks but for six months--or however long proves necessary. That governments around the world will be forced to distribute "helicopter money" to keep their people fed and housed and their economies from imploding is already a given. 

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All-Stars #97 Jeff Snider: The QE Market Meltdown – Currency Inelasticity

2020-03-16

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Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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Is big tech good for your health? | The Economist

2020-03-16

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Tech giants including Google and Microsoft want to work with hospitals and health-care systems to improve lives. But should people trust them with their medical data? Read more here: https://econ.st/2TVyjf5 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, 1960-2020
Subtract their immense debts and they have negative net worth, and therefore the market value of their stock is zero. To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic lead to global insolvency, let's start with a household example. The point of this exercise is to distinguish between the market value of assets and net worth, which is what's left after debts are subtracted from the market value of assets.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

Market sentiment is likely to open this week on an upswing after the Fed’s emergency rate cut and expanded QE were announced Sunday afternoon local time.  Yet as we have seen time and again this past couple of weeks, added stimulus has had little lasting impact on markets as the virus numbers continue to worsen.  Europe is now reporting more daily cases than China did at its peak.  We remain negative on EM until the global growth outlook becomes...

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Goodbye to All That: The Demise of Globalization and Imperial Pretensions

2020-03-15

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2020-03-15

The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning. Globalization and Imperial Pretensions have been decaying for years; now the tide has turned definitively against them. The Covid-19 pandemic didn't cause the demise of globalization and Imperial Pretensions; it merely pushed the rickety structures over the edge.

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Dollar Firms, Equities Sink Ahead of ECB Decision as US Fails to Deliver

2020-03-14

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2020-03-14

President Trump spoke to the nation last night and did little to calm markets; reports suggest that the Democrats are working on a bill. Fed easing expectations are intensifying. The ECB decision will be out at 845 AM ET; over the past 17 ECB decision days, the euro has finished lower in 11 of them.

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What Happens When Central Banks Buy Stocks (ETFs)? Well, We Already Know

2020-03-13

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2020-03-13

Japan Machine Tool Orders, 2010-2020
Can we please dispense with all notions that monetary policy works? Specifically balance sheet expansion via any scale asset purchase programs. Nowhere has that been more apparent than Japan. Go back and reread all the promised benefits from BoJ’s Big Bang QQE that were confidently written in 2013. The biggest bazooka ever conceived has fallen short in every conceivable way.

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And Then Came the Lawsuits: Pandemic in a Litigious Society

2020-03-13

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2020-03-13

This is the upside of hyper-litigiousness: prevention is prioritized as the most effective means of limiting future liability. Never mind prevention or vaccines; the big question is "who can we sue after this blows over to rake in millions of dollars?" Yes, this is pathetic, tragic, perverse and evil, but that's reality in a hyper-litigious society like the U.S.

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(Almost) Everything Sold Off Today

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

Eurodollar Futures Curve, 2018-2024
The eurodollar curve’s latest twist exposes what’s behind the long end. To recap: big down day in stocks which, for the first time in a while, wasn’t accompanied by massive buying in longer maturity UST’s. Instead, these were sold, too. Rumors of parity funds liquidating were all over the place, which is consistent with this curve behavior.

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Dollar Soft as BOE Surprises Ahead of UK Budget

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

The dollar is stabilizing but remains vulnerable to disappointment as markets await details of US fiscal measures. US reports February CPI; Joe Biden moved closer to clinching the Democratic nomination. BOE delivered a surprise 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and initiated a new lending scheme; UK government releases its budget today; UK reported weak data.

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