Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

2019-07-27

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2019-07-27

U.S. PMI Chicago Fed NAI, Jan 2006 - July 2019
In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view somewhat.

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How to save humankind (according to James Lovelock) | The Economist

2019-07-26

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James Lovelock, the renowned scientist, is 100 years old. He believes the human race is under threat of destruction—but he has a radical plan for saving it Read more here: https://econ.st/2LKroSQ Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Is the human race under threat of destruction? This man thinks so and he …

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It’s Not Just the News That’s Fake–Everything’s Fake

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
What do we mean when we say corporate media is fake? We mean it's a carefully crafted con, a set of narratives, cherry-picked data and heavily massaged statistics (the unemployment rate, etc.) designed to instill the reader's confidence in a narrative that serves the interests not of the citizenry but of a select few pillaging the citizenry.

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How donuts have benefitted America’s immigrants | The Economist

2019-07-25

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Donuts are the all-American confectionery. They have also helped a group of immigrants from Cambodia pursue the American dream. Read more here: https://econ.st/30Olhk6 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy America has the biggest immigration population in the world. The country has long attracted people in search of a better life. Among …

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Germany Struggles On

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, Jan 2006 - 2019
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike.

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What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

New Home Sales Population Adjusted, 1987-2019
In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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World growth forecast revised down

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

World Real GDP Growth, 1985-2019
Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast.The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy.

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Could solar geoengineering counter global warming? | The Economist

2019-07-22

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Global warming is probably the biggest threat facing humanity. If all else fails, could climate-controlling technology be the answer? Read more here: https://econ.st/2JSpnRm Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This was one of the biggest volcanic explosions in history. It happened on June 15th 1991 in the north-west of the Philippines. …

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Our Ruling Elites Have No Idea How Much We Want to See Them All in Prison Jumpsuits

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Pretax income growth in the United States
Even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they're not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%. Let's posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Turning, a 4-generational cycle of 80 years that correlates rather neatly with the Great Crises of the past: 1781 (Revolutionary War, constitutional crisis); 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (World War II, global war).

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Home Prices Could Crash to 2003 Levels, Housing Bubble Prediction – Charles Hugh Smith

2019-07-21

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USA housing bubble could get ugly. Please subscribe to our main channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXuldJPtmI0x0DVQFsB9cSg This is the back-up channel for Bull-Boom-Bear-Bust financial/economic/investing news channel.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

2019-07-21

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2019-07-21

US High Yield Master 2000-2015
I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Globally Synchronized, After All

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

Retail Sales (ex Autos), NSA 1993-2019
For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered.

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US FX intervention still someway off

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

US Dollar Overvaluation According to OECD Purchasing Power Parity, 1971-2019
The likelihood of active FX intervention by the US authorities remains low but is increasing and the Trump administration can be expected to continue to pressure the Fed to cut rates.The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump.

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Who owns the Moon? | The Economist

2019-07-18

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50 years after the first Moon landing, humanity is getting ready to go back. Countries and companies are planning dozens of lunar missions—for research, for resources and even for tourism, which begs the question: who, if anyone, owns the Moon? Read more here: https://econ.st/2JK0A1O Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Who …

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China: Q2 growth lowest in decades

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Growth in Real Chinese GDP by Sector, 2010-2019
Downward pressure on growth persists amid ongoing trade tensions.Chinese real GDP growth came in at 6.2% year-over-year (y-o-y) in Q2, down from 6.4% in Q1, and the lowest quarterly growth in over two decades.The tertiary sector (mainly services) continued to lead growth, expanding by 7.0% y-o-y in Q2, the same as in Q1.

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Market’s Obsession with the Federal Reserve

2019-07-16

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Click here for the relevant charts and full written transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2019/07/16/fra-the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-markets-obsession-with-the-federal-reserve/

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Market’s Obsession with the Federal Reserve

2019-07-16

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Click here for the relevant charts and full written transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2019/07/16/fra-the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-markets-obsession-with-the-federal-reserve/

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Is the Fed too focused on corporates?

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

US Consumers' Debt Servicing Burden Has Climbed Sharply,1989-2019
Fed dovishness is helping to curb financing costs for corporates but does not seem to be percolating down to the US consumer, whose debt-servicing costs are rising. This could be something to watch. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s leading priority now is to help sustain the US business cycle, hence the concept of ‘insurance’ rate cuts put forward by Fed chairman Jerome Powell, with some echoes of Alan Greenspan’s philosophy in the 1990s.

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As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

China Price Stability, 2007-2019
It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell no matter what happens.

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WARNING!!! ?Charles Hugh Smith – US Economy Collapse: What Will Happen, How to Prepare

2019-07-13

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WARNING!!! ?Charles Hugh Smith – US Economy Collapse: What Will Happen, How to Prepare WARNING!!! ?Charles Hugh Smith – US Economy Collapse: What Will Happen, How to Prepare WARNING!!! ?Charles Hugh Smith – US Economy Collapse: What Will Happen, How to Prepare...

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