Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Forex technical trading (VIDEO): AUDUSD inches higher, but approaches strong resistance

2015-02-17

by Forexlive

The AUDUSD was supported in trading today by minutes from the RBA meeting which were less dovish than expectations. Favorable technicals also played a part in the pairs move to the upside in trading today. Can that momentum continue into the new trading session? Greg Michalowski, director of technical analysis and trader education will outline …

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(2.7) The Most Complete Real Effective FX Rate Comparison

In August 2013 the Bruegel blog offered one of the best comparison of long-term real effective exchange rates (REER). The data is CPI based and therefore not as good as the producer price index (PPI) that reflects tradable goods better. However the data is huge with three different sources - BIS, World Bank, Eurostat, OECD and Bruegel. The data indicates how the real value of the currencies of China and many other Emerging Markets (EM) have...

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ForexLive: A technical look at the forex week ahead (Feb 16th, 2015)

2015-02-16

by Forexlive

What does the technical picture look like for the major currency pairs for the week starting Feb 16th. Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com shows the levels to eye in trading for the week and explains why..

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(3) Inflation, Central Banks and Interest Rates

In this chapter we connect three related concepts: inflation, central banks and interest rates.

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(3.1) FX Theory: Interest Rate Parity

real interest rates euro uk czech us turkey south africa india mexico norway canda hungary japan switzerland israel korea sweden indonesia china new zealand brazil russia poland australia chile

The interest rate parity gives a mathematical explanation for the purchasing power parity and real effective interest rates

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(4) The Main FX Trading Strategies

Currency Intervention and Mean Reversion

Carry Trades, Central Bank Interventions, Fundamental Data, mean reversion, Momentum Trades, Overshooting, trend following

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(5) The Balance of Payments Model

The Balance of Payments is the sum of current and capital account. The Balance of Payments model states that a currency appreciate when the Balance of Payments is positive. We give an explanation in around 400 words, that clarifies the relationships.

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(5.1) FX Theory: The Trade Surplus and the Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion

Trade and Current Account Deficit United States 1980-2012

George Dorgan explains why currencies of countries with trade surpluses must appreciate over the long-term. Thanks to these surpluses, inflation and costs of companies rise more slowly than in other countries. In Forex a mean reversion does not exist, but only an inflation-adjusted reversion to the mean: a real exchange rate mean reversion or in short the "real mean reversion."

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(5.2) FX Rates, the Balance of Payments Model and Central Bank Interventions

We will apply the balance of payments model for determining FX rate movements and FX interventions by central banks.

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(5.3) FX Theory: Penn Effect and Balassa Samuelson Effect

ULC Labor Labour Costs Switzerland vs. Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany

George Dorgan extends the previous discussion on trade surplus countries. Now he explains the Penn and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. He applies these principles to Germany, to Greece and to Switzerland.

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Forex technical trading (VIDEO): AUDUSD consolidation continues. Looking for a break.

2015-02-10

by Forexlive

Greg MIchalowski, director of client education and technical analysis at Forexlive.com, takes a look at the AUDUSD from a technical perspective. The pair has been consolidating in a narrow trading range. Traders are looking for the break and momentum on a break. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► …

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(5.4) The Relationship between Current Accounts and Savings

Private savings finance public deficit and current account surpluses. Important for understanding the euro crisis and the drivers of government bond yields.

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(5.5) FX Theory: Currencies of Countries with High Economic Freedom, Immigration and Savings Must Appreciate

Economic freedom, immigration and high savings are main drivers for strong currencies. Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Sweden and in the future even Germany are examples. Strangely most are in Europe.

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Welcome to the new ForexLive!

2015-02-09

by Forexlive

Welcome to the new ForexLive! We are proud to launch our new ForexLive website. Our goal in creating this new site is to focus on speed, freshen up the look and prepare for the future with the ability to add and serve our growing customer base. We hope you like what you see. Please feel … Continue reading »

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Forex Technical Analysis (VIDEO): A technical preview of the Forex week ahead (Feb 9, 2015)

2015-02-09

by Forexlive

In this video, Greg Michalowski looks at the technicals that are shaping the major currency pairs for the current trading week. Included are technical looks at the following currency pairs. EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD and NZDUSD SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ►...

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(5.6) The Holy Grail of Long-Term Currency Movements: Crowther’s Balances and Imbalances of Payments

The former chief editor of "The Economist" Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to Shakespeare's seven phases of life. The seven stages are: Young debtor nation, Mature debtor nation, Debt repayment nation, Young creditor nation, Mature creditor nation, Credit disposition /Asset Liquidation nation and...

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(6) FX Theory: Carry Trade and Reverse Carry Trade

This page discusses two closely related concepts: the carry trade and the reverse carry trade.

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A preview of the January US employment report

2015-02-05

by Forexlive

Adam Button and Greg MIchalowski of ForexLive.com will preview the January US Employment report and also review the technical levels in play (starting at 2 PM ET).

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Talking Forex with Adam Button and Greg Michalowski (February 4th, 2015)

2015-02-04

by Forexlive

Adam Button and Greg MIchalowski from ForexLive.com will share their views on the recent forex moves and what they think might happen ahead.

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(6.1) FX Theory: The relationship between Current Accounts Surpluses and the Carry Trade

The EUR/USD is going on its longest winning streak for a long time. Since May 27, it has improved from 1.2850 to 1.3396 and is approaching 1.34. What are the reasons?

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