Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Week Ahead: Evolving Investment Climate

2016-05-22

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2016-05-22

The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors. These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning.

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Sentiment Shift Evident in Speculative Adjustment in Currency Futures

2016-05-21

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2016-05-21

Speculative positioning in the currency futures began to adjust before the latest signals from the Federal Reserve about the prospects for a summer hike and the widening of interest rate differentials.  In the CFTC reporting week ending May 17, the day before the FOMC minutes were released speculators mostly reduced gross long currency positions and added …

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Daily FX, May 20: Divergence Reasserted, Extends Greenback’s Recovery

2016-05-21

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2016-05-21

The combination of stronger US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve that it is looking to continue the normalization process helped the dollar extended its recovery.  The dollar posted a significant technical reversal against many of the major currencies on May 3.  The Dollar Index rose for its third week, as the greenback climbed …

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-05-20

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2016-05-20

The Philippine central bank moved to an interest rate corridor Saudi Arabia is preparing to sell its first global bond ever Transport Minister Yildirim, a close ally of President Erdogan, will become Turkey’s new Prime Minister The new Brazil cabinet continues to take shape with a market-friendly bias In the EM equity space, South Africa …

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Forex Trading Education: Take a step back and see what the big picture is saying

2016-05-20

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In this video, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive demonstrates how to look longer term at forex charts. Sometimes we get caught in the minutia of the shorter term swings. Non-trending periods can tend to do that as the focus is on the break. We as traders have to make sure we divorce ourselves from the shorter …

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FX Daily, May 19: FOMC Minutes Extend Dollar Gains

2016-05-19

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2016-05-19

We felt strongly that the FOMC minutes would be more hawkish than the statement that followed the meeting, and we were not disappointed.  However, our caveat remains:  the minutes dilute the signal that emanates from the Fed’s leadership, Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley.  The latter two speak in the NY morning.  Fischer and Dudley’s comment will be scrutinized …

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Cool Video: CNBC Asia–Rare Double Feature

2016-05-18

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2016-05-18

My two week trip to Asia is winding down.  I had the privilege of being on CNBC in Asia earlier today and discussed the markets with Martin Soong from Singapore.     There were two segments.  The first segment (here) is about two minutes long and focuses on about Japan.  The second segment (there) is 3.5 … Continue reading »

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FX Daily, May 18: Greenback Recovers as Rate Support is Enhanced

2016-05-18

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2016-05-18

Apart from GBP, the US dollar is rising against all the major currencies today.  The Australian dollar is retracing a sufficient part of its recent gains to suggest that the current phase of the US dollar’s recovery is not over. Given that the Aussie topped out a week before the other major currencies, it is reasonable …

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Cool Video: Chatting with Bloomberg’s Angie Lau in Hong Kong

2016-05-17

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2016-05-17

As the second week of this Asian business trip gets underway, I am in Hong Kong.  I was on Bloomberg TV in the Asian morning to discuss market developments with Angie Lau. The 4.5 minute discussion covers a number of topics, including the outlook for Fed policy, the BOJ, dollar outlook and game theory.   … Continue...

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FX Daily, May 17: The Meaning of Sterling and Aussie’s Advance Today

2016-05-17

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2016-05-17

The US dollar is mostly weaker today.  It appears to be consolidating the gains scored since the reversal on May 3. Sterling and the Australian dollar are leading the way early in Europe.   The Australian dollar’s gains appear more intuitively clear.  The minutes from the recent RBA meeting indicated that it was a closer decision.  This …

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Forex Trading Education: Attacking Currency Non-Trends

2016-05-17

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Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends focuses on trading non trending markets. What are the characteristics of a non trend? How you can anticipate a non trend? How you can define the non trending ceiling and floor?

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Brief Look at the Start of the New Week’s Activity

2016-05-16

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2016-05-16

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on its highs.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is snapping a two-day losing streak with a … Continue reading...

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Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead

2016-05-16

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2016-05-16

EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week. Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any increase in Fed tightening expectations. Over the weekend,

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Are Dollar Fundamentals Lagging the Technical Improvement?

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar extended its recovery that began on May 3.  Its technical condition remains constructive, even though up until now, the gains are still consistent with a modest correction rather than a trend reversal.   The details of the employment report, if not the headline, coupled with the 1.3% increase in retail sales, have boosted …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Significant Position Adjustments

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar staged an impressive reversal against many of the major foreign currencies on May 3. In the following week, speculators in the currency futures market made significant adjustment in their holdings. We identified a change in the gross position in the currency futures of 10k contracts or more to be significant.  In the week …

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Dollar’s Technical Tone Improves, but No Breakout (Yet)

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance over the period), helped the Norwegian krone turn in a steady performance.  The Canadian dollar’s 0.2% … Continue...

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Forex Trading Education: Managing your trades by listening to the market price action

2016-05-13

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FOREX TRADING EDUCATION: The story can change in your forex trading dependent on a lot of things fundamentally and technicallly. Let’s face it, seeing the distant future can be really difficult. Earlier this week, the EURUSD moved above a key technical resistance level turning the bias higher. The price moved nicely above a few levels …

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Daily FX, May 13: Toward a New Mouse Trap

2016-05-13

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2016-05-13

The Great Financial Crisis has exposed a deep chasm in economics and economic policy.  No single institution is this crystallized more than at the Bank of Japan. The former Governor, Shirakawa brought policy rates to nearly zero to combat deflation. His successor, Kuroda, took the central bank in the completely other direction. He has introduced three …

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Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD finds sellers against the 38.2%

2016-05-11

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What are the technicals saying for the NZDUSD after less dovish comments from the RBNZ Financial Stability Report

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Forex Trading Education: How you can use narrow ranges to your trading advantage

2016-05-11

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If the range is narrow, there is room to roam. The EURUSD is trading at new session highs and also new week highs on the move above the 1.1419 level That extends what has been a very narrow trading range for the week The range coming into the day was only 61 pips. Looking back … Continue...

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