Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Why You Should Understand What is Happening with Italian Banks

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Italian banks shares have staged an impressive bounce over the past four sessions from beaten down levels. How Italy's banking crisis is resolved will shape the way the EC responds to banking resolution going forward. As you might expect, there is a German and French interpretation.

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Long Term Market Perspectives

2016-07-12

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2016-07-12

Methuselah Tree When looking for a good theme for this post I pondered for a while and then decided to use a picture of a bristlecone pine, which are widely considered to be the oldest living trees in the world.

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FX Daily, July 11: Dollar Extends Gains

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

The combination of the rebounding US job growth and gains in the S&P 500 to near record levels before the weekend is helping boost the US dollar against the major currencies, while the emerging market currencies are mixed. In addition, indications that Japan will put together another fiscal stimulus package and the Bank of England may cut rates late this week are helping global equities.

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Caixin Monthly Column: Brexit

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

(Here is the latest monthly column I write for Caixin.  It is on Brexit and I wrote it as an email to my mother.  Here is the link.  The text follows) To: Mother, Date: July 4, 2016, Glad to see you figured out how to access your email account. I smiled when I saw your note in my inbox. Thank you, though I am not sure that Thomas Watson felt the same way when Alexander Graham Bell called him.

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New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.

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Cool Video: Whirlwind Discussion; UK, Politics and the Dollar

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

Shortly before I was on Bloomberg TV today, Leadsom withdrew from the Tory leadership context, leaving May, who favored remaining the EU, as the likely successor of Cameron. Leadsom had been trailing May even before her controversial weekend comments.

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FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Movement

2016-07-10

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2016-07-10

Electoral politics remains significant. BOE is likely to cut rates, while BoC may tilt more dovishly. US Q2 earnings season formally begins.

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FX Weekly Review, July 04 – July 08: Further SNB Interventions, Good Dollar Week

2016-07-10

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2016-07-10

In the Brexit month, the Swiss franc index clearly underperformed the dollar index. The major reason is that the dollar is seen as a better safe-haven than the Swiss Franc, possibly because Swiss sales are affected more when British demand falls.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Still Don’t Believe in the Greenback

2016-07-09

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2016-07-09

Commitments of Traders July 05 Speculative Positions
Speculators reduced their Net long CHF position (against USD) from 10.9K contracts to 8.7K contracts. In five of the eight currency futures, we track, speculators covered their gross short exposure and added to their gross long exposure.

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FX Daily, July 08: US Jobs Data, Little Policy Significance, Swiss Unemployment falls

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

Positive job data in the United States are typically positive for both USD and EUR, because the odds of a rate hike are increasing. Consequently the EUR/CHF rose. In the last two days SNB interventions should have been smaller. The Swiss unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.3%.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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FX Daily, July 07: Sterling Bounces Two Cents, but Does not Appear Sustainable

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Amid a better if not strong risk appetite, sterling has rallied two cents from yesterday's lows near $1.28 to poke through the $1.30 level in the European morning. It was helped by an industrial production report that was better than expected. Industrial and manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May. This was around half of the expected decline after a strong April advance (2.1% and 2.4% respectively).

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Plan your trade: A look at the key levels for the EURUSD through US employment report

2016-07-07

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The June US employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are around 180K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.8% from 4.7%. I don’t look to go into a high risk event with a position. There are better times to trade, but after the news is known, …

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Great Graphic: The Yuan’s Weakness

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Don't be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish.

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SIBOR Forex Banking Fraud – another FX rate rigging scandal

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

Forex has been the big banks secret gold mine, supporting their other losing operations (like normal banking business, lending, etc.). To a large extent this has been unraveling, and this SIBOR lawsuit is another attack on their risk free profit center (FX). Read the entire lawsuit released by Elite E Services here in full.

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FX Daily, July 06: Dollar and Yen Advance Amid Growing Investor Angst

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

What a difference a few days make. Many saw last week's equity market advance a sign that Brexit anxiety was overdone. However, quarter-end position adjustments appear to have been misread. Equity markets are falling now. Bond yields in the US, Japan, and Germany, are at new record low. Japan's 20-year bond yield briefly dipped below zero for the first time.

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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FX Daily, July 05: Sterling Hammered to New Lows, Yen Pops, SNB intervenes

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

The British pound has been hammered to fresh lows just above $1.3115. The euro is moving toward GBP0.8500. The immediate catalyst is three-fold. First, one of the UK's largest property funds has moved to prevent retail liquidation. Second, the BOE reversed an earlier decision on the capital buffer for banks, which is tantamount to easing policy by boosting the banks' lending capability by as much as GBP150 bln.

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Forex trading video: EURUSD falls below 200 day MA.What next?

2016-07-05

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The EURUSD has fallen below the 200 day MA in trading today. That is nothing new if you look at recent history. The price has been trading above and below the MA line as traders ponder “Which way next” for the pair… Now yesterday the MA did hold. Today…not so lucky. In fact, the correction …

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