Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FOMC says What it Had To, No More or Less

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy. Added that the downside risks to the economy have diminished. Only George dissents.

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FX Daily, July 27: Yen Falls on Fiscal Stimulus, while Sterling and Aussie Can’t Sustain Upticks

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

Swiss Franc: The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday's rapid rise. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.

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Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

The decline in oil prices is a factor weighing on the Canadian dollar. US premium over Canada is rising, and may continue as the economies diverge. The general risk appetite is supportive for the Canadian dollar.

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Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data.

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FX Daily, July 26: Strange Day: Yen Soars , Swissie Falls

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical.

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Fed to Stand Pat, but Statement may be More Constructive

2016-07-26

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2016-07-26

The Fed's nervousness in June has likely largely eased on the back of better economic data and stable international climate. The Fed may reintroduce its risk assessment. Who are the possible dissents?

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Federal Reserve preview for July 27 2016

2016-07-26

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What to expect from the July 27 Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Some trade ideas for the FOMC from Adam Button ahead of the 2 pm ET decision. What to look for from Janet Yellen and the Fed and what it will mean in the forex and stock market.

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European Banks Bad Loans and Coverage

2016-07-26

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2016-07-26

European banks are worrisome. EBA's stress test results will be out at the end of the week. Nonperforming loans are a separate issue, but also need to be addressed.

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FX Daily, July 25: Big Week Begins Slowly

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly. The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies. Equity markets are mostly firmer following the new record highs on Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain (0.1%), with losses in Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore offsetting gains elsewhere.

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Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

With today's losses the Sept contract has retraced 50% of this year's rally. The oil glut has partly been transformed into a gasoline glut. US rig count is rising and output has increased two weeks in a row.

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European Bank Stress Test: Preview

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

European bank stress test results will be released a couple hours before the US open on Friday. The focus is on Italy, but other countries' banks may also be identified as needing capital. Within the existing rules are allowances for exceptions. Everyone wants to follow the rules.

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FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.

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FX Weekly Review, July 18 – July 22: Will the FOMC Halt the Dollar’s Advance?

2016-07-24

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2016-07-24

The US dollar gained against all the major currencies over the past week. It also rose against many emerging market currencies. A notable exception was the Chinese yuan.

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Weekly Speculation Positions: Bullish on Dollar and Dollar-Bloc

2016-07-23

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2016-07-23

Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July. They are more Bullish on Dollar and on the Dollar-Bloc currencies.

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FX Daily, July 22: Flash PMIs Show Brexit Impact Localized

2016-07-22

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2016-07-22

As the week draws to a close, there are three main developments in the capital markets. First, the profit-taking seen in US equities yesterday has continued in Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe are both off around 0.5%.

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FX Daily, July 21: Monetary Policy Expectations are Driving Foreign Exchange

2016-07-21

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2016-07-21

Monetary policy is said to have lost its impact on the foreign exchange market, as investors scratch their heads at the resilience of currencies with negative interest rates. Yet the price action in the action cannot be understood without recognizing the ongoing importance of monetary policy expectations.

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Three trade ideas to end the week

2016-07-21

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A look at the EURUSD, AUDUSD and the USDJPY The EURUSD, the AUDUSD and the USDJPY are all trading around some technical levels that could set up some low risk trading opportunities. The EURUSD is trading in the most narrow trading range for a week since end of 2014 with one day to go. Will … Continue reading »

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Effective Fed Funds and Money Markets

2016-07-21

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2016-07-21

Fed funds have been trading firmly. There are several reasons and one of them is the shift that is taking place in the US money markets. Still the risk of a Fed hike has increased, just as speculation increases of easing in other major centers.

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Draghi Does not Surprise and Euro Edges Away from $1.10

2016-07-21

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2016-07-21

Draghi does not show the kind of urgency many bank economists do over the shortage of bonds to buy. Draghi kept options open and suggested a review in September when new staff forecasts are available and more data will be seen. The euro firmed, mostly it seemed on sell the rumor buy the fact, and/or possibly some disappointment that no fresh action was taken.

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FX Daily, July 20: Sterling’s Jump Slows Dollar’s Ascent

2016-07-20

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2016-07-20

It is a bizarre turn of events. Just like the Game of Throne's Westeros is a map of the UK put on top of an inverted Ireland, so too do UK events seem to be a strange permutation of the pre-referendum views. Although sterling and interest rates have not fully recovered from the Brexit decision, equity markets have, and fear of contagion has died down.

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