Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Short Note on US Employment Report

2017-04-07

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-07

The US jobs data is notoriously difficult to accurately forecast consistently. I do not claim to do so now. My intent is more modest. It is simply to point out why I there is risk that the jobs data is disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected ADP estimate.

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FX Daily, April 05: Dialing it Up on Hump Day

2017-04-05

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-05

he dollar is practically unchanged against the euro and yen in the first two sessions of the week. The pace can be expected to pick up starting Wednesday. Although the euro slipped through $1.0650, it was not sustained, and on Monday and Tuesday, the euro finished near its highs.

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Inclusion in SDR Does Not Spur Official Demand for the Yuan

2017-04-04

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-04

China's share of global reserves is in line with expectations prior to its inclusion in the SDR. Three factors influencing allocated reserves - valuation, portfolio decisions, and China's gradual inclusion in allocated reserves. The Swiss franc's as a reserve asset diminished, but the "other" category appeared robust.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Last Reduction of Euro Short Positions?

2017-04-03

by George Dorgan

2017-04-03

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc April 03

Speculators continued to reduce their net short euro exposure until March 28. Apparently they do not understand the difference between core inflation and the headline figure.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Macro Backdrop at the Start of the Second Quarter

2017-04-03

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-03

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year. The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical. The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it may not be several more months.

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

by George Dorgan

2017-04-02

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01

Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks

2017-04-01

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-01

MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance.

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Five Keys to Understand Trump

2017-04-01

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-01

The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many people, even seasoned political observers and astute investors. He failed to win the popular vote but did carry the electoral college, which is how the US elects its chief executive. His victory is a bit of a Rorshcach test, where people project the issues that allowed Trump to succeed, with different observers making different claims.

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FX Daily, March 31: Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

2017-03-31

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-31

The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year. The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.

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FX Daily, March 30: Euro breaks down against CHF and USD

2017-03-30

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-30

The EUR/CHF broke down under 1.07. The euro lost against both dollar and franc.

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Cool Video: “Turn Around Tuesday” Call in Early Asia Yesterday

2017-03-29

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-29

I had time this afternoon, as I prepare for my TMA presentation tomorrow night here in Hong Kong, to find my clip from yesterday on CNBC, where I suggested the risk of a dollar recovery after it lost downside momentum in North America on Monday.

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Cool Video: Brexit, Europe and EU Challenges

2017-03-29

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-29

Earlier today, I had the opportunity to discuss the outlook for sterling and the US dollar on Bloomberg TV with Rishaad Salamat and Haidi Lun. It is a momentous day with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being formally triggered by UK Prime Minister May, nine months after what was, at least initially, a non-binding referendum.

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FX Daily, March 28: Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday?

2017-03-28

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-28

The slide in the US dollar and US interest rates faded in the North American session on Monday. US participants also had a fairly relaxed initial response to news that after years of complaining, the Republicans could not agree on an alternative to the Affordable Care Act.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Continued reduction of Euro Shorts

2017-03-28

by George Dorgan

2017-03-28

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc 27 Mar

Another time speculators reduced their net Euro shorts after the less dovish ECB. But the net short of CHF nearly remains stable. This resulted in an appreciation of EUR/CHF.

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FX Weekly Preview: After US Health Care, Now What?

2017-03-27

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-27

The first quarter winds down. The dollar moved lower against all the major currencies. The best performer in the first three months of the year has been the Australian dollar's whose 5.8% rally includes last week's 1% drop. The worst performing major currency has been the Canadian dollar.

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Brexit is here: How to trade the Article 50 trigger

2017-03-26

by Forexlive

On March 29, Theresa May will trigger Article 50. That sets a two year negotiation period for the UK to leave the European Union — the Brexit is here. The foreign exchange market has built up an incredibly large short position against the pound in anticipation of Article 50. In this video, Adam Button from …

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

by George Dorgan

2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m

In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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FX Daily, March 24: Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend

2017-03-24

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-24

The US dollar has been stabilizing over the past couple of sessions. This broad stability of the dollar is impressive because of the questions of the prospects of US President Trump's economic agenda. Expectations for tax reform and infrastructure spending have bolstered investor confidence and helped boost equity prices despite what appears to be stretched valuation.

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FX Daily, March 23: Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

2017-03-23

by Marc Chandler

2017-03-23

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies. The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. The down draft in the dollar appears part of a larger development in the capital markets that has also seen the US 10-year yield slide 25 bp in less than two weeks. The two-year yield is off 17 bp.

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