Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, November 15: Dollar Slides

2017-11-15

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2017-11-15

The euro and yen are extending their gains, casting a pall over the US dollar. The euro is extending its advance into a sixth consecutive session, which is the longest streak since May. It is approaching last month's highs in the $1.1860-$1.1880 area. As was the case yesterday, a consolidative tone in Asia was followed by strong buying in the European morning. There does not appear to be a fresh fundamental driver.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 13/11/2017 – USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-11-15

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2017-11-15

USD/CHF, November 15
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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FX Daily, November 14: Euro Rides High After German GDP

2017-11-14

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2017-11-14

Sterling is trading in the lower end of yesterday's range and has been confined to about a quarter a cent on either side of $1.31. On the other hand, the euro has pushed a bit through GBP0.8950 to reach its best level since October 26. Sweden also reported softer than expected October inflation.

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FX Daily, November 13: Sterling Trounced by Growing Political Challenges

2017-11-13

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2017-11-13

The US dollar has begun the new week on firm footing, without the help of either higher interest rates or increased confidence that Congress will agree on a tax plan. Indeed, over the weekend the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee was explicit that the Senate plan to repeal the federal tax break for state and local taxes will not find support in the House of Representative.

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FX Weekly Preview: Week Ahead Data and Policy

2017-11-13

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2017-11-13

There seems to be a broad consensus on the trajectory of policy in the remaining weeks of the year. Barring a major shock or surprise the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month. The ECB's course is set until at least the middle of next year when the current policy will begin to be debated in earnest.

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Let’s meet in London

2017-11-08

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Adam Button will be at the Finance Magnates London Summit on Nov 14-15 at the Old Billingsgate. If you’re in the industry, come out and meet up. If you haven’t registered yet, register here: http://bit.ly/2zocJqc Check out all the upcoming events at: http://financemagnates.com/events LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+ …...

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week of Digestion

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Quiet week ahead. RBA and RBNZ policy meetings; no change is expected. US tax reform and the newest Fed governor, Quarles speaks. Q3 data renders September data too old to matter much.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 06/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Euro / Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 06
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV on Powell–Heir Apparent

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

BBG London
In London on business and had the opportunity to go to Bloomberg. In this clip, Francine Lacqua discuss the likely nomination of Fed Governor Powell to succeed Yellen at the helm of the Federal Reserve. I make three points. First, that, like others, I recognize a strong element of continuity between Bernanke, who was first appointed by a Republican, Yellen, and now, presumably Powell.

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FX Daily, November 03: Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data

2017-11-03

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2017-11-03

The US dollar is firm but is not going anywhere quickly. The lack of fresh interest rate support and uncertainty over the US tax proposals, which the Brady, the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee hopes to have a revised version out after the weekend so the committee work can begin on Monday.

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FX Daily, November 02: Dollar Pulls Back in Asia

2017-11-02

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2017-11-02

We suggested the market was at crossroads. It is still not clear if the dollar's breakout, supported by higher yields is real or simply the fraying of ranges. Asia has pushed the dollar broadly lower. While the greenback finished the North American session above JPY114.00 for the first time since July, the fact that the US 10-year yield could not push back above the 2.40% level, does not help confidence.

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FX Daily, November 01: Super 48 Hours

2017-11-01

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2017-11-01

This is it: The next 48 hours will be among the busiest of the year. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and it not only gives a verdict on interest rates but also provides an update of its economic projections (Quarterly Inflation Report). And, among the innovations, the MPC minutes will be released. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market will have the ADP private-sector job estimate.

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FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads

2017-10-31

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2017-10-31

Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6% on the month. It is the second monthly advance after a June-August swoon. The benchmark is closing in on the high for the year set in May.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 30/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-10-31

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2017-10-31

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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FX Daily, October 30: Dollar Slips in Consolidative Activity

2017-10-30

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2017-10-30

The markets are mixed, mostly responding to idiosyncratic developments, as the week's large events loom ahead. These BOJ, BOE, and FOMC meetings, eurozone flash CPI and US jobs reports. In addition, US President Trump is expected to announce his nomination of the next Fed chair, and the initial House tax bill will be unveiled.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of the Week’s Big Events

2017-10-30

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2017-10-30

Busiest week of Q4. Fed, BOJ, and BOE, only the last is expected to change policy. Flash EMU CPI and US jobs. Positive developments in Italy, less so in Spain.

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Three Developments in Europe You may have Missed

2017-10-29

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2017-10-29

The focus in Europe has been Catalonia's push for independence and the attempt by Madrid to prevent it. Tomorrow's ECB meeting, where more details about next year's asset purchases, is also awaited. There are three developments that we suspect have been overshadowed but are still instructive. First, the ECB reported that its balance sheet shrank last week. With the ECB set to take another baby step toward the exit, many are seeing convergence,...

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Cool Video: A Tentative Answer to the Low Vol Question

2017-10-28

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2017-10-28

I had the privilege of joining the set of anchors (Julie Chatterley, Scarlet Fu, and Joe Weisenthal on the set of "What'd You Miss"  today. The unrehearsed discussion took an unexpected turn when Joe asked about the low volatility. 

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FX Daily, October 27: Greenback Finishing Week on Firm Note

2017-10-27

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2017-10-27

This has been a good week for the US dollar. The Dollar Index's 1.25% gain this week is the largest of the year. The driver is two-fold: positive developments in the US and negative developments abroad. The positive developments in the US include growing acceptance that the Fed will raise rates in December and that there will be more rate hikes next year. The Fed says three.

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FX Daily, October 26: Draghi’s Day

2017-10-26

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2017-10-26

It is all about the ECB meeting today. The market was hoping for more details last month, but Draghi pointed to today. The broad issue is well known. While growth has been strong, price pressures are still not, according to the ECB, on a durable path toward its "close but lower than 2%" target. The ECB judges that substantial additional stimulus is needed.

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