Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead Excluding Brexit

2019-10-21

by

2019-10-21

I feel a bit like the proverbial guy that asks, "Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" in trying to discuss the week ahead without knowing the results of the UK Parliament's decision on the new deal negotiated between Prime Minister Johnson and the EU.   I will write a separate note about Brexit before the Asian open. However, there are several other developments next week that will help shape the investment climate.

Read More »

Cool Video: With Rick Santelli on CNBC

2019-10-18

by

2019-10-18

I was invited to Rick Santelli's Exchange on CNBC earlier today. There is a 3.5-minute clip of the interview that can be found here. Despite being a dollar bull for nearly a decade (since around the time of my first book--Making Sense of the Dollar--), I do not think a strong or weak dollar is desirable. It is about the level that is appropriate depending on business conditions and the economic cycle.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 17: EU-UK Deal Sends Sterling and the Euro Higher

2019-10-17

by

2019-10-17

Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific is consolidated after gaining for the past four sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 16: Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

2019-10-16

by

2019-10-16

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

2019-10-15

by

2019-10-15

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

Read More »

FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off

2019-10-14

by

2019-10-14

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Same Three Drivers in the Week Ahead but Changing Tones

2019-10-14

by

2019-10-14

Three themes have dominated the investment climate:  US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces.  None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors.  However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little. 

Read More »

Why the China and Brexit deals are getting done

2019-10-11

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks to BNNBloomberg about two deals that are on the cusp of completion and how we got here. He also talks about the next big question in the global economy and foreign exchange. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook â–ş http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter â–ş https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage â–ş http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

Why the China and Brexit deals are getting done

2019-10-11

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks to BNNBloomberg about two deals that are on the cusp of completion and how we got here. He also talks about the next big question in the global economy and foreign exchange. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook â–ş http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter â–ş https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage â–ş http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

2019-10-11

by

2019-10-11

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 10: Setback for the Greenback

2019-10-10

by

2019-10-10

Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to lift European stocks, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near the week's lows.

Read More »

Marc Chandler On The Currency Market

2019-10-09

by

Marc Chandler On The Currency Market

Read More »

FX Daily, October 9: Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

2019-10-09

by

2019-10-09

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 7: Markets Unsettled to Start the Week

2019-10-07

by

2019-10-07

Overview: The global capital markets are uneasy as the risks that have dominated investors' concerns--trade and Brexit--remain front and center today. Expectations are low that this week's talks between the US and China will lead to a breakthrough or will be sufficient to postpone further the next round of tariff increases set for next week. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: China Returns, ECB Record, Fed Minutes and the Week Ahead

2019-10-07

by

2019-10-07

Many high-income countries experienced little growth but strong price pressures in the 1970s. Since the mainstream economics said the two were mutually exclusive, a new term had to be created, hence stagflation.  Fast forward almost half a century later, and mainstream economists are still having a problem deciphering the linkages between prices and economic activity, such as inflation and employment.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

2019-10-04

by

2019-10-04

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

2019-10-03

by

2019-10-03

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 2: Greenback Shows Resiliency, Stocks Don’t

2019-10-02

by

2019-10-02

Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today's activity.  All the markets were lower in Asia Pacific, with China and India closed for holidays.

Read More »