Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

2019-04-17

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-17

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

2019-04-15

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-15

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

2019-04-15

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-15

In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies.

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Thoughts on the ‘world’s most frustrating’ currency

2019-04-12

by Forexlive

Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the Canadian dollar’s inability to rally in early 2019 despite higher oil, better economic data and a great backdrop for risk trades. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, April 12: Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month

2019-04-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-12

Overview: The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index snapped a ten-day rally yesterday and is little changed so far today.

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FX Daily, April 11: Market Yawns at Latest Brexit Extension

2019-04-11

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-11

The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll local shares with the Shanghai Composite, shedding 1.6%, the most in more than two weeks. European bourses are mostly in the red.

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FX Daily, April 10: Be Careful What You Wish For

2019-04-10

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-10

There were only a few formal disputes under NAFTA 1.0. It says more about the adjudication process than the underlying issues. It was not binding. The Democrats want stronger enforcement provisions in what the NAFTA 2.0. It is understandable. Still, without opening up the agreement, which had been already agreed to by three heads of state, it is difficult to see how this will happen.

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FX Daily, April 09: Is the USMCA Dead?

2019-04-09

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-09

The heads of state may have agreed on the modernization of NAFTA, but the necessary legislative approval may not be forthcoming this year. The US legislative process has been complicated by the fact that the Democrats secured a majority in the House of Representatives last year.

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FX Daily, April 8: Brexit, the EU-China, and the Abandonment of the Open Door

2019-04-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-08

(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA--NAFTA2.0--for which approval remains elusive. It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US Congress. Mexico is due to pass legislation this week that may meet demands by the some in the US and Canada for stronger labor protections.

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FX Weekly Preview: Important Steps Away from the Abyss

2019-04-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-08

It seems to be well appreciated among by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis. It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could trigger a financial crisis. In practice, it seems like it has worked the other way around. The financial crisis triggered the Great Recession.

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FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

2019-04-05

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-05

Overview: Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents. Although we have argued that the German economy may be past the worst, the sharp drop in factory orders spooked investors.

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FX Daily, April 04: Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments

2019-04-04

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-04

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments. The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal exit goes to the House of Lords today. India cut interest rates by 25 bp, the second consecutive cut.

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FX Daily, April 03: Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets

2019-04-03

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-03

Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor. The connotation is of beautiful harmony. And investors have taken the bit and run with it. Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade. China and Europe have reported better than expected PMIs today.

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Cool Video: Fed’s Independence Challenged and Defended

2019-04-03

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-03

Marc Chandler talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy

I was on the set Fox Business set this afternoon talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy. Payne suggested that both the political left and right are trying to politicize the Federal Reserve to print money for their favorite programs.

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FX Daily, April 02: Herding Cats

2019-04-02

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-02

After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&P 500 to its best level since last October. Most Asia Pacific equity markets advanced. Japan's small losses were a notable exception. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has advanced in four of the last five sessions and is little changed, while US shares are trading with a heavier bias.

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April Monthly Currency Outlook

2019-04-02

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-02

Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis.

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FX Daily, April 01: China Reanimates the Animal Spirits, While Europe Finds New Ways to Disappoint

2019-04-01

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-01

Overview: Better than expected German retail sales ad employments reports at the end of last week has been followed by gains in China's official PMI and Caixin's manufacturing reading. However, the spillover from China was limited in Asia. Japan's Tankan survey and outlook disappointed and South Korea's exports and imports were weaker than expected.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Green Shoots of Spring

2019-04-01

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-01

Investors have worked themselves into a lather. Equities crashed in Q4 last year amid on corporate earnings and concerns about growth. The Fed’s tightening decision in December was made unanimously. The above-trend growth, the preferred inflation measure was near target, unemployment was the lowest in a generation and real rates were historically low.

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