Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily 03/18: Dollar Trims Losses Ahead of the Weekend

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies to pare this week's decline.  There are three notable exceptions, and they are all in Asia.  For all practical purposes, the dollar is flat against the Japanese yen near JP...

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FX Daily 03/17: When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

If there was one word Yellen emphasized yesterday it was caution.  The dot plot reflected that as well.  Can one ask if the Fed is being too cautious? Yellen acknowledged that the Fed's assessment of the US economy had not changed much from December.  There is little reason it should.  However, it is difficult to … Continue reading...

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Great Graphic: Dollar Index Retracement, Too Soon To Say Top is In

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground.  We are not convinced.  The macro-fundamental case remains intact.  Divergence between the US and other high income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected a few months ago. This Great Graphic of the Dollar Index, created on Bloomberg, …

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FX Daily 03/17: Dollar Drop Extends Post-Fed, Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Rally

2016-03-17

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2016-03-17

The Federal Reserve's cautiousness has sent the dollar reeling.  The Fed's backtracking to two hikes this year from four is still met with skepticism by the market.  It previously had a June hike nearly discounted but has not pushed that out unti...

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FX Daily 03/16: Fed Pulls Back to Two Hikes, Dollar Drops and Stocks Rally

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

The Federal Reserve halved the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year from four to two.  The market has been moving toward this as well after having thought the would be no hikes this year.  The dollar sold off.  The dollar-bloc currencies and emerging market currencies are have rallied sharply. Risk assets in general …

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Brexit, Cyprus and the EU Summit

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

The EU leaders summit on refugees begins tomorrow.   A conclusive agreement will likely be elusive.   There are three main obstacles.  First, the effort to reinforce the external borders to allow free internal movement requires Turkey's cooperation, but it won't be represented.  Second, that is important because Cyprus is demanding more concessions by Turkey.  Third, others …

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Dollar Firm Ahead of the FOMC, UK Budget Looms

2016-03-16

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2016-03-16

Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates in December, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have eased policy further.  The idea that because they cut rates means that the Fed cannot raise rates is a not a particularly helpful way to ...

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Anticipation of Osborne’s Budget Weighs on Sterling

2016-03-15

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2016-03-15

If UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne wants to position himself to be the next Prime Minister, the budget to be unveiled tomorrow may not be particularly helpful.  There is little room to relax fiscal policy, given the self-imposed constraints. The deficit for the current fiscal year was projected to be GBP73.5 bln, but through …

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Before the FOMC, Another Look at the ECB’s Actions

2016-03-15

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2016-03-15

The market's focus has shifted to the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased with recent developments.  Labor market slack continues to be absorbed.  Core inflation measures continue to edge higher. Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen, and the 10-year breakeven is a little above levels that prevailed before …

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FX Daily, 03/15: Dollar and Yen Firmer

2016-03-15

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2016-03-15

The US dollar is steady to firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  Equity markets are heavier, and oil continues to surrender some of its recent gains.  Profit-taking is weighing on eurozone bonds and JGBs while US Treas...

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Is the Oil Correction Over?

2016-03-14

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2016-03-14

The price of oil is seeing its biggest decline today since February 23.   The ostensible reason is that Iran once again reiterated it would only consider capping its output after it reached four million barrels a day, its pre-sanction output.  ...

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One Investor’s Poison is Another’s Windfall

2016-03-14

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2016-03-14

The introduction of negative interest rates in Japan and the subsequent chance for yields has seen domestic investors move further out on the curve.  They have also stepped up their purchases of foreign bonds. In three weeks (through March 4) since the negative deposit rate went into effect, Japanese investors bought JPY4.4 trillion of foreign …

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FX Daily, 03/14: Dollar Firmer to Start the Week

2016-03-14

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2016-03-14

The US dollar is firmer but largely confined to the ranges seen before the weekend against most of the major currencies.  The yen is also firmer as dollar sellers reemerged near JPY114.00.    The dollar is gaining against most emerging market c...

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-03-13

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2016-03-13

EM enjoyed an extended rally last week, and it should carry over to the early part of the week. The Wednesday FOMC meeting poses a risk to EM, especially if markets continue to price in a more hawkish Fed. The dot plots and press conference will be very important. BOE and the Norges Bank also … Continue reading »

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FX Daily 03/14: Five Central Banks Meet as Monetary Policy is Downgraded

2016-03-13

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2016-03-13

Fixed exchange rates limit the degrees of freedom for policymakers.  The breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971 removed this constraint on official action, and the results were larger budget deficit and higher inflation.  The zero bound on interest rates also posed a constraint on behavior. Until this year, despite the long struggle against deflation, the Bank …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Cut Long Sterling Exposure While Adding to Long Aussie

2016-03-12

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2016-03-12

The Commitment of Traders reporting period ending March 8 showed little position adjusting ahead of the ECB meeting two days later.  A little more than 3/4 of the gross positions we track saw less than 5k contract change and only two were above 6k. The gross long speculative sterling position was cut by a quarter …

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FX Daily, 03/12: Greenback’s Tone Sours, Sterling may Shine

2016-03-12

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2016-03-12

The reversal of the US dollar's gains half way through Draghi's press conference has undermined the near-term technical tone.  The risk is on the downside, at least in the first part of the week, ahead of the FOMC meeting.   The US Dollar Inde...

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A Few Thoughts Ahead of the Weekend

2016-03-11

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2016-03-11

The market reaction to Draghi's indication, once again, that interest rate policy has run its course, will be debated for some time.    Draghi delivered the goods that many investors said was lacking last December.  The ECB policy more than an...

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FX Daily, 03/11: Dollar Recovers Against the Euro and Yen

2016-03-11

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2016-03-11

The euro is paring the recovery that began in the middle of the ECB's press conference yesterday. The markets had reacted as one intuitively would expected to broad easing of interest rates and credit conditions.   The market reversed, and viol...

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FX Daily 03/10: Draghi Delivers, but Now What?

2016-03-10

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2016-03-10

Draghi delivered.  He managed to get approval for everything.  Rate cuts, acceleration of purchases, including corporate bonds to the purchase program and new long-term repos were announced.   The knee-jerk reaction was favorable.  The euro fell over 1% and peripheral European bonds rallied. The deposit rate was cut 10 bp to minus 40 bp.  The …

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