Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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US Trade Balance is Deteriorating, Despite Record Exports

2018-02-07

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2018-02-07

The US trade deficit swelled in December, and the $53.1 bln shortfall was a bit larger than expected. It was the largest deficit since October 2008. For the 2017, the US recorded a trade deficit of goods and services of $566 bln, the largest since 2008. The deterioration of the trade balance may be worse than it appears. There has been significant improvement in the oil trade balance. In 2017, the real petroleum balance was just shy of $96 bln, the...

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Chandler Says Yield Curve Is One of the Best Predictors of the Economy

2018-02-07

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Feb.07 — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the bond market and which yield curve he focuses on. He speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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Marc Chandler Says BOE Is Comfortable on Hold

2018-02-07

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Feb.07 — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the upcoming Bank of England rate decision. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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FX Daily, February 06: Recovering US Equities Puts Floor Under Europe after Asia Tanks

2018-02-06

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2018-02-06

After the dramatic fall in US equities, Asian equities followed suit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.4% following Monday's slide of 1.7%. European bourses gapped lower and spent most of the morning moving higher, though large gaps remain. At its worst, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off about 3.3%, and at the time of this writing, it is half as much. US equities initially extended yesterday's losses, but the S&P 500 has turned higher in the...

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Great Graphic: European Equities Lead Move

2018-02-06

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2018-02-06

SPX Index, Dec 2017 - Feb 2018
European equities peaked earlier and have fallen the furthest. MSCI EM equities faring the best, and as of now, they are still up on the year. MSCI Asia Pacific fell 3.4% today and is now down 0.33% for the year.

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FX Daily, February 05: Dollar Consolidates while Equity Rout may be Ebbing

2018-02-05

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2018-02-05

Asian equity markets were weighed down by losses in the US markets ahead of the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was off 1.4% after the 1.0% pre-weekend loss. The Nikkei gapped lower and shed 2.5% and has fallen in eight of the past nine sessions. The notable exception in Asia was the Shanghai Composite. The 0.75% was led by the financial sector amid talk that a report later this week will show a strong jump in yuan lending from banks, which...

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FX Weekly Preview: Changing Fortunes in the Capital Markets or Long Overdue Correction?

2018-02-05

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2018-02-05

The chief development in the capital markets has been the sharp drop in equities after a significant rally since late last year and the rise in yields. The dollar had fallen alongside the exuberant appetite for risk assets. Anecdotal evidence supports the idea that the greenback was used as a funding currency to purchase those risk assets.

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FX Daily, February 02: A Note Ahead of US Jobs Report

2018-02-02

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2018-02-02

The US dollar is sporting a firmer profile against all the major currencies after weakening yesterday. Frequently, it seems the Australian dollar leads the other currencies, and we note that it is making a new low for the week today. Briefly, in Europe, it slipped below its 20-day moving (~$0.7985) average for the first time since December 13.

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FX Daily, February 01: Fed’s Hawkish Hold Keeps Dollar Consolidation Intact

2018-02-01

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2018-02-01

The Yellen Fed ended on a high note. She took over the reins the of Federal Reserve an implemented a strategic normalization process monetary policy, and helped engineer not only the first post-crisis rate hikes but also the beginning of unwinding its balance sheet. Most reckon she has done an admirable job at the Federal Reserve, not only in terms of the economic performance on her watch but also the nimble execution policy.

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FX Daily, January 30: Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet

2018-01-30

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2018-01-30

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild Turn Around Tuesday but suggests that the market psychology that has driven the dollar lower and yields higher persistently since mid-December have not been broken.

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FX Daily, January 29: A Brief Word

2018-01-29

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2018-01-29

The US dollar is modestly firmer, but nothing to suggest a outright correction rather than consolidation. However, have a dramatic drop over the past month, much more than we think is justified by macroeconomic developments and interest rates, we think the dollar may have overshot.

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FX Weekly Preview: Market Confusion and New Inputs

2018-01-29

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2018-01-29

Many investors are confused, and the official communication only fanned the confusion. Before turning to next week’s key events and data, let's first spend some time, working through some of the confusion. There was no change in policy last week. The US did not suddenly become protectionist. It did put tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

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Initial Thoughts on Draghi

2018-01-27

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2018-01-27

ECB President Draghi was unable to arrest the US dollar's slide and euro's surge. But he did not try particularly hard. While many investors are a bit stumped by the pace and magnitude of the dollar's slump, Draghi seemed to imply that it was perfectly understandable given the recovery of the eurozone economy.

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Did Mnuchin Signal a Policy Shift Today?

2018-01-27

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2018-01-27

Did US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin signal a change in the US dollar policy? Probably not. As Mnuchin and President Trump have done before, a distinction was drawn between short- and longer-term perspectives. In the short-term, a weaker dollar says Mnuchin, is good for US trade and "other opportunities". In the longer-term, Mnuchin explicitly acknowledged, "the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the strength of the US economy."

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FX Daily, January 26: Trump-Inspired Dollar Short Squeeze Fades Quickly

2018-01-26

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2018-01-26

It was dramatic. Following the BOJ and ECB's rather mild rebuke of dollar's depreciation, US President Trump cautioned that his Treasury Secretary comments were taken out of context, and in ant event, he, the President ultimately favored a strong dollar. The dollar, which had continued fall after Draghi's post-ECB meeting comments, shot higher in the US afternoon in response to Trump's comments.

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FX Daily, January 25: And Now, a Word from Draghi

2018-01-25

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2018-01-25

With a backdrop of concern about US protectionism and a possible abandonment of the 23-year old strong dollar policy, and among the weakest sentiment toward the dollar in at least a decade, the ECB takes center stage. What a turn of events for Mr. Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank.

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FX Daily, January 24: Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

2018-01-24

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2018-01-24

North American session sold into the dollar's upticks and Asia followed suit, taking the greenback to new multi-year lows against the euro and sterling while pushing it below the JPY110 level for the first time since last September. US trade action has become latest element of the narrative the seeks to explain the dollar's slide and the decoupling of the greenback from interest rates.

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Great Graphic: Is Aussie Cracking?

2018-01-24

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2018-01-24

AUD BGN Currency, Jul 2017 - Jan 2018
The Australian dollar bottomed in early December $0.7500 after having tested $0.8100 a couple of times in September. Since early December, however, the Australian dollar appreciated by nearly 6.5%. As it tested the $0.8000 area, the momentum faded.

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FX Daily, January 23: Dollar Stabilizes Near Recent Lows

2018-01-23

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2018-01-23

The US dollar has come back better bid in late Asian activity. The session highlight was the BOJ meeting. BOJ maintained forecasts and policy. There was a small tweak to the inflation assessment, noting that prices were skewed to the downside, and said there was no change in inflation expectations. Last time it has said expectations were weakening. It also reiterated that there was no policy implication to the bond operations.

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FX Daily, January 22: Dollar Remains Heavy

2018-01-22

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2018-01-22

The US dollar closed last week on a firm note, but it has been unable to build on its gains to start the new week. News that Germany's SPD agreed to enter formal negotiations with Merkel's CDU/CSU alliance saw the euro open in Asia around a half a cent higher. However, sellers emerged near $1.2275 but seemed to lose their nerve as the pre-weekend low near $1.2215 was approached.

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