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Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week

2018-10-29

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-29

Global equities have sold off hard. The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year. The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has matched the 11% loss back at the start of the year, but never truly recovering in between.

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FX Daily, October 25: ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama

2018-10-25

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-25

The Dollar Index broke above 96.00 yesterday and is consolidating today. Provided the 96.00 area holds, the next target is the year's high near 97.00. The euro has been confined to a little more than a quarter of a cent. Players seem reluctant to sell it below $1.14 and note there is a 570 mln euro option at $1.1420 that expires today.

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FX Daily, October 24: Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro

2018-10-24

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-24

The US dollar is firmer against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. While the seemingly fragile equity markets are still the center of investors' attention, the weakness of the eurozone flash PMI is disconcerting and has sent the euro closer to $1.14. China's officials continue to unveil initiatives to minimize the disruption of the equity and debt markets while seemingly adding to moral hazard risks.

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FX Daily, October 23: Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen

2018-10-23

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-23

There is one main story today, and that is the resumption of the slide in equities. It is having a ripple effect through the capital markets. Bond yields are tumbling. Gold is firm. The dollar is narrowly mixed, though the yen stands out with almost a 0.5% gain. Most of the large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan were off mostly 2%-3%.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle

2018-10-23

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-23

An assessment of the US economy is an important input into the expectations of the dollar's behavior in the foreign exchange market. As a currency strategist, my views of the US economy are often subsumed in discussions or talked about indirectly by talking about Fed policy. However, in this clip with Alix Steel and David Westin, I have an opportunity to sketch outlook for the US economy.

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2019 Slowdown Will Force Fed to Pause, Chandler Says

2018-10-22

by Marc Chandler

Oct.22 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist and managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the potential for a U.S. recession and looks at the Federal Reserve’s rate path. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

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FX Daily, October 22: Collective Sigh of Relief?

2018-10-22

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-22

After a slow start in Asia, the US dollar has turned better bid. The euro recovered from $1.1430 before the weekend to $1.1550 today, where an option for almost 525 mln euros expires today. There is another option (1.6 bln euros) at $1.1500 that also expires today.

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FX Weekly Preview: What Can Bite You This Week?

2018-10-22

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-22

Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will continue to have a strong influence on other capital markets.

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FX Daily, October 18: China’s Angst Stays Local

2018-10-18

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-18

Asian equities were lower, led by a nearly 3% drop in Shanghai, while European shares shrugged it off and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover. The S&P 500 is off by about 0.25%. Global bond yields were dragged higher by US Treasuries where the 10-year yield is straddling 3.20% after rising four basis points yesterday.

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FX Daily, October 17: Greenback is Little Changed While Stocks Recover

2018-10-17

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-17

Led by a dramatic recovery in US stocks, global equities are moving higher today. Before last week, decline, the US stock market lacked breadth, but not only did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post their biggest advance in several months, but the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had their best day in a couple of years.

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FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-10-16

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-16

Overview: Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week's jump in volatility. Asia and European stocks are also cautiously steadying. Most Asia equity markets advanced with the Nikkei's 1.25% advance most bourses higher. China was a notable exception, The Shanghai Composite recorded new lows for the year and finished uninspiringly on...

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-16

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-16

Fred

The dollar's recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President's criticism to alter the Fed's course.

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FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues

2018-10-15

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-15

Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China and Saudi Arabia threatening retaliation for any sanctions relating to the disappearance of the journalist Khashoggi, and the lack of a breakthrough in UK-EU negotiations.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2018-10-15

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-15

There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger. With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week.

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FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend

2018-10-12

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-12

Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday. As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today's recovery. Most accounts seem to be emphasizing two developments: a report indicating that despite the talk earlier in the week, there is a recognition by the US Treasury staff that China's actions do not reach...

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FX Daily, October 11: Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot

2018-10-11

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-11

There is one story today, and that is the sell-off in global equities. Although the narratives put the US at the center, the fact of the matter is that US equities have been among the best performers this year, despite the rise of interest rates and a President that is not above criticizing the central bank.

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-11

by Marc Chandler

2018-10-11

clouods

Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries, coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers. The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate.

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