Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

2019-04-29

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap. However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week. Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday. The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone.

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FX Daily, April 26: Greenback Consolidates Ahead of Q1 GDP

2019-04-26

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-26

Overview: The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week. The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss coming into today where it is a little softer.

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FX Daily, April 25: Equities Waiver, the Dollar Does Not

2019-04-25

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-25

Overview: After closing at record highs on Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped yesterday, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped an eight-session advance. Asia followed suit, with the Shanghai Composite posting its biggest loss (~2.4%) in over a month. It is off about 4.6% this week, which if sustained tomorrow, would be the largest loss in six months.

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FX Daily, April 24: Dollar Bloc in Focus, while Germany’s IFO Disappoints

2019-04-24

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-24

The record high close for the S&P 500 failed to lift global equities. Far East trading was mixed. The Nikkei opened strong and closed weaker, while the Shanghai Composite began softer and closed firmly. Australian shares and bonds rallied on the back of mild inflation, while the Australian dollar tumbled.

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FX Daily, April 23: Oil Extends Gains While Markets Await Fresh Incentives

2019-04-23

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-23

Overview: Financial centers that have been closed for the extended holiday have re-opened, but the news stream is light and market participants are digesting developments and positioning for this week's central bank meetings and the first look at Q1 US GDP. The US decision to end exemptions to the embargo against Iran led to a surge in oil prices, which are extending gains to new six-highs today.

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Cool Video: Discussion of the Deflationary Risks in Japan and Brexit

2019-04-23

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-23

I joined CNBC Asia’s Amanda Drury and Sri Jegarajah via Skype earlier today as the new week was beginning in Asia. In this three minute clip, we discuss the outlook for the BOJ and sterling. Most of the rise in Japan’s inflation is due to food and energy prices. Despite an aggressive balance-sheet expansion effort, the BOJ has missed its target by a long shot.

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FX Daily, April 22: Surge in Oil Punctures Holiday Markets

2019-04-22

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-22

Overview: With many centers closed for the extended holiday, the calm in the global capital markets has been punctuated by reports that the US is considering ending its exemption for eight countries to have bought Iranian oil over the past six months. The waivers were to end on May 2, but previously it was thought that a couple of waivers, like for China and India, would be extended.

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FX Weekly Preview: Six Events to Watch

2019-04-22

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-22

The divergence thesis that drives our constructive outlook for the dollar received more support last week than we expected. A few hours after investors learned that Japan's flash PMI remained below the 50 boom/bust level, Europe reported disappointing PMI data as well. And a few hours after that the US reported that retail sales surged in March by the most in a year and a half (1.6%).

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FX Daily, April 19: Holiday Note

2019-04-19

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-19

Many financial centers are closed today. These include Australia, India, most European markets, and the US. In Asia, equity markets that were open moved higher. The Nikkei, which gapped higher on Monday, rose 0.5% today for a 1.5% gain on the week. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%, lifting the weekly increase to 2.6%.

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FX Daily, April 18: EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

2019-04-18

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-18

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance. The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outlook.

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

2019-04-17

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-17

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

2019-04-15

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-15

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

2019-04-15

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-15

In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies.

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FX Daily, April 12: Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month

2019-04-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-12

Overview: The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index snapped a ten-day rally yesterday and is little changed so far today.

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FX Daily, April 11: Market Yawns at Latest Brexit Extension

2019-04-11

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-11

The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll local shares with the Shanghai Composite, shedding 1.6%, the most in more than two weeks. European bourses are mostly in the red.

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FX Daily, April 10: Be Careful What You Wish For

2019-04-10

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-10

There were only a few formal disputes under NAFTA 1.0. It says more about the adjudication process than the underlying issues. It was not binding. The Democrats want stronger enforcement provisions in what the NAFTA 2.0. It is understandable. Still, without opening up the agreement, which had been already agreed to by three heads of state, it is difficult to see how this will happen.

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FX Daily, April 09: Is the USMCA Dead?

2019-04-09

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-09

The heads of state may have agreed on the modernization of NAFTA, but the necessary legislative approval may not be forthcoming this year. The US legislative process has been complicated by the fact that the Democrats secured a majority in the House of Representatives last year.

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FX Daily, April 8: Brexit, the EU-China, and the Abandonment of the Open Door

2019-04-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-04-08

(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA--NAFTA2.0--for which approval remains elusive. It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US Congress. Mexico is due to pass legislation this week that may meet demands by the some in the US and Canada for stronger labor protections.

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