Category Archive: 6b.) Debt and the Fallacies of Paper Money

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Is an Inflation Comeback in the Works?

2017-02-24

LOVINGSTON, VIRGINIA – Amid all the sound and fury of the Trump news cycle, hardly anyone noticed. There is a specter haunting this economy. It is the specter of inflation…

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How to Outperform Hedge Funds with Just a Few Trades

2017-02-23

by Dimitri Speck

2017-02-23

Not everything is simple – but some things actually are.

In their efforts to beat the market, many investors are spending a lot of time searching for rare undiscovered gems or sophisticated trading rules. There is actually a simpler way. I will show below how one could have beaten the market by a sizable margin over approximately the past 90 years – with only two trades per month, while being invested only one third of the time and without employing any leverage.

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When Trumponomics Meets Abenomics

2017-02-11

by MN Gordon

2017-02-11

What will President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talk about when they meet later today? Will they gab about what fishing holes the big belly bass are biting at? Will they share insider secrets on what watering holes are serving up the stiffest drinks? [ed. note: when we edited this article for Acting Man, the meeting was already underway]

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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q1 2017 and Some Additional Reflections

2017-02-09

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-02-09

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Advisory Board was held on January 11, approximately one month ago. A download link to a PDF document containing the full transcript including charts an be found at the end of this post. As always, a broad range of topics was discussed; although some time has passed since the meeting, all these issues remain relevant.

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The Futility of Predictions

2017-02-05

by Evil Speculator

2017-02-05

Back in late 2013 I wrote a piece on human nature which was in part inspired by the bullish exuberance exhibited by a MarketWatch article predicting the DJIA at 20,000 in the near term future. Yesterday afternoon, a bit over three years later, that prediction actually became reality and I’m sure the author of that article as well as many other like minded traders popped some champagne in celebration of their awesome ability to predict the future.

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Don’t Blame Trump When the World Ends

2017-02-04

by MN Gordon

2017-02-04

The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.

There was, indeed, a time when clear thinking and lucid communication via the written word were held in high regard. As far as we can tell, this wonderful epoch concluded in 1936. Everything since has been tortured with varying degrees of gobbledygook.

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With Trump Optimism of Small Business Soars

2017-01-28

by MN Gordon

2017-01-28

“You boys know what makes this bird go up? Funding makes this bird go up. That’s right. No bucks, no Buck Rogers.” - Gordon Cooper and Gus Grissom, The Right Stuff (film). Things are looking up for the United States economy in 2017. You can just feel it. Something great is about to happen.

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Policy Makers – Like Generals – Are Busy Fighting The Last War

2017-01-25

by Chris Hamilton

2017-01-25

The Maginot Line formed France's main line of defense on its German facing border from Belgium in the North to Switzerland in the South. It was constructed during the 1930s, with the trench-based warfare of World War One still firmly in the minds of the French generals. The Maginot Line was an absolute success...as the Germans never seriously attempted to attack it's interconnected series of underground fortresses. But the days of static warfare...

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Donald and the Dollar

2017-01-20

by Antonius Aquinas

2017-01-20

John Connally, President Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasury, once remarked to the consternation of Europe’s financial elites over America’s inflationary monetary policy, that the dollar “is our currency, but your problem.” Times have certainly changed and it now appears that the dollar has become an American problem.

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US Financial Markets – Alarm Bells are Ringing

2017-01-18

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-01-18

When discussing the outlook for so-called “risk assets”, i.e., mainly stocks and corporate bonds (particularly low-grade bonds) and their counterparts on the “safe haven” end of the spectrum (such as gold and government bonds with strong ratings), one has to consider different time frames and the indicators applicable to these time frames.

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Crony Socialism and Failed CEOs

2017-01-15

by Roger Barris

2017-01-15

Whenever a failed CEO is fired with a cushy payoff, the outrage is swift and voluminous. The liberal press usually misrepresents this as a hypocritical “jobs for the boys” program within the capitalist class. In reality, the payoffs are almost always contractual obligations, often for deferred compensation, that the companies vigorously try to avoid.

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Trump’s Trade Catastrophe?

2017-01-15

by Bill Bonner

2017-01-15

It is worse than “voodoo economics,” says former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. It is the “economic equivalent of creationism.” Wait a minute – Larry Summers is wrong about almost everything. Could he be right about this?

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Trump’s Plan to Close the Trade Deficit with China

2017-01-14

by MN Gordon

2017-01-14

Jack Ma is an amiable fellow. Back in 1994, while visiting the United States he decided to give that newfangled internet thing a whirl. At a moment of peak inspiration, he executed his first search engine request by typing in the word beer.

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Regime Change: The Effect of Trump’s Victory on Stock Prices

2017-01-13

by Dimitri Speck

2017-01-13

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Daily

On January 20 2017 Donald Trump will be sworn in as the new president of the United States. On the stock market his victory has triggered a lot of advance cheer already: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by a sizable 7.80 percent between the election and the turn of the year.

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Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle

2017-01-12

by Frank Shostak

2017-01-12

A Difference of Opinions, In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle.

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A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve

2017-01-08

by Bill Bonner

2017-01-08

BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things.

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A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

2017-01-05

by Jim Quinn

2017-01-05

A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project.

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Global Recession and Other Visions for 2017

2017-01-02

by MN Gordon

2017-01-02

Today’s a day for considering new hopes, new dreams, and new hallucinations. The New Year is here, after all. Now is the time to turn over a new leaf and start afresh. Naturally, 2017 will be the year you get exactly what’s coming to you. Both good and bad. But what else will happen?

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Why the Fed Destroyed the Market Economy

2017-01-01

by MN Gordon

2017-01-01

Swing voters are a fickle bunch. One election they vote Democrat. The next they vote Republican. For they have no particular ideology or political philosophy to base their judgment upon.

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How You Become a Crony

2016-12-31

by Bill Bonner

2016-12-31

BALTIMORE – Who’s the biggest winner so far? “Government Sachs!” Fortune magazine reports that the winningest person since Trump’s election is Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

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