Category Archive: 6b.) Debt and the Fallacies of Paper Money

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About that Economic Inequality

2016-11-19

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2016-11-19

I address this essay to two groups. One group is those among the liberty movement, who believe that there’s nothing wrong with inequality. These are often Objectivists, who unknowingly defend a regime that artificially suppresses working people.

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Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply

2016-11-16

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2016-11-16

WIN
We have witnessed truly astonishing short term market conniptions following the Donald Trump’s election victory. In this post we want to focus on one aspect that seems to be exercising people quite a bit at present, namely the recent surge in inflation expectations reflected in the markets. Will we have to get those WIN buttons out again?

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The Fed’s “Hothouse” Is in Danger

2016-11-14

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2016-11-14

Federal Funds Rate
RHINEBECK, New York – It is a beautiful autumnal day here in upstate New York. The trees are red, brown, and yellow. Squirrels hop across the lawn, collecting their nuts. Unseasonably warm the last few days, rain showers are moving in from across the Hudson, driven by a chilly wind.

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Dissection of the Long-Term Asset Bubble

2016-11-12

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2016-11-12

The Long Term Outlook for the Asset Bubble Due to strong internals, John Hussman has given the stock market rally since the February low the benefit of the doubt for a while. Lately he has returned to issuing warnings about the market’s potential to deliver a big negative surprise once it runs out of greater fools.

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The One Thing that Will Change Everything

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Branco Trump and Hillary
The American populace counts down to Election Day with impatient intent. Will their party man occupy the White House come January 21, 2017? Or will their party woman occupy a federal prison cell? These are questions that only the good wisdom of time can answer. Here at the Economic Prism we watch with indifferent curiosity. We don’t think either candidate’s worthy of high office. But we’re eager to know the election outcome, nevertheless.

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Is there a Savings Glut?

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Bakers and Work
In his speech at the New York Federal Reserve of New York on October 5, 2016, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has suggested that a visible decline in the natural interest rate in the US could be on account of the world glut of saving. According to Fischer, both increased saving and reduced investments have potentially significantly lowered the natural rate of interest.

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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q3 2016

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Is Stagflation a Potential Threat? The Incrementum Fund held its quarterly advisory board meeting on October 3 (the transcript can be downloaded below). Our regular participants – the two fund managers Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek, advisory board members Jim Rickards, Frank Shostak and yours truly – were joined by special guest Grant Williams this time.

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Crude Oil Has Entered a Seasonal Downtrend

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Many market observers are probably expecting crude oil prices to enter a seasonal uptrend due the beginning heating season. After all, the heating season in the Northern hemisphere means that energy consumption will rise. The effect of the heating season on demand is however offset by other factors, such as the use of alternative energy sources and fixed prices agreements made in advance. The question is: what is the actual seasonal trend in crude...

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D-day for Australia’s Real Estate Bubble?

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

Shack
Unknowable Degrees of Bubble Insanity Back in February, we brought you an update on the truly insane real estate bubble in Australia (see: “Australia’s Housing Bubble – In the Grip of Insanity” for details) in the wake of Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception reporting on an eye-opening fact-finding tour in Sydney.

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Recessions, Predictions and the Stock Market

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

Only Sell Stocks in Recessions? We were recently made aware of an interview at Bloomberg, in which Tony Dwyer of Cannacord and Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research were quizzed on the recently announced utterly bizarre AT&T – Time Warner merger. We were actually quite surprised that AT&T wanted to buy the giant media turkey. Prior to the offer, TWX still traded 50% below the high it had reached 17 years ago.

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You Didn’t Build That!

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

Collectivism Across Party Lines “There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own — nobody.” – Elizabeth Warren, campaign speech 2011. “If you’ve got a business – you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

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Governments Will Lose Their War on the Markets

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

Gosudarstvenaya duma in Russia
DELRAY BEACH, Florida – The markets continue to dawdle. Not much conviction in either direction. We’ve already looked at the War on Poverty, the War on Drugs and the War on Terror. So let’s move on – using our new lens to look at another of the feds’ fake wars. No war was ever officially declared against the markets.

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50 Slides for Gold Bulls – The Full Chart Book

Who is Incrementum? Incrementum AG is an owner-managed and fully licensed asset manager & wealth manager based in the Principality of Liechtenstein. Our business focus is the management of investment funds that we believe to be unique.

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50 Slides for Gold Bulls – The New Incrementum Chart Book Introduction

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

Our good friends Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG have just published a new chart book, which recaps and updates charts originally shown in this year’s 10th anniversary edition of the “In Gold We Trust” report and provides an overview of recent developments relevant to the gold market. The chart book can be downloaded in PDF form via the link at the end of this post.

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Donald, the “Maestro” and the Politically Controlled Fed

2016-10-23

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2016-10-23

The Crazies, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was once laudably referred to as “Maestro” for his supposed astute stewardship of U.S. monetary policy, commented last week on the nation’s current political and economic climate.

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US Stock Market – a Spanking May be on its Way

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

The stock market has held up quite well this year in the face of numerous developments that are usually regarded as negative (from declining earnings, to the Brexit, to a US presidential election that leaves a lot to be desired, to put it mildly). Of course, the market is never driven by the news – it is exactly the other way around.

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Evacuate or Die…

2016-10-12

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2016-10-12

BALTIMORE – Last week, we got a peek at the End of the World. As Hurricane Matthew approached the coast of Florida, a panic set in. Gas stations ran out of fuel. Stores ran out of food. Banks ran out of cash.

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Australian property bubble on a scale like no other

2016-10-11

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2016-10-11

Australian House Miden Multiples
Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included: The record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction. The associated boom in mining investment and current reversal. Record low bond yields. The boom in housing construction. Specifically apartments, that was spurred...

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The Dying Middle Class

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

As expected, Ms. Yellen smiled last week, announcing no change to the Fed’s extraordinary policies. For the last eight years, she has been aiding and abetting the largest theft in history. Thanks to ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing), every year, about $300 billion is transferred from largely middle-class savers to largely better-off speculators, financial asset owners, and the biggest borrowers during that period –...

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Credit Crisis in Waiting

2016-10-03

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2016-10-03

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton
Clowns in the Coliseum DUBLIN – The presidential debate began long after our bedtime, here in Ireland. So we got up this morning, rubbed our eyes, and watched the highlights. “Lowlights” is perhaps a better way to describe it:

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