Monthly Archive: April 2017

We Need To Define The ‘Shadows’, And All Parts of Them; or, ‘Rising Dollar’ Kills Another Recovery Narrative

2017-04-07

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2017-04-07

Total Credit Market Instruments
JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir yesterday with his 45-page annual letter to shareholders. The phrase that gained him so much widespread attention was, “there is something wrong with the US.” Dimon mentioned secular stagnation and correctly surmised it was the right idea if for the wrong reasons. He then gave his own which included a litany of globalist agenda items, including not enough access to mortgages.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2017: Up +0.6 percent against 2016, +0.2 percent against last month

2017-04-06

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2017-04-06

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2017
The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in March 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Some UN consultants thought their income was tax free. They were wrong.

2017-04-06

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2017-04-06

Some United Nations consultants haven’t paid taxes on their income, thinking it was exempt. When the tax authorities catch up with them they’ll risk paying back taxes and fines. As a general rule, foreign UN functionaries are not required to pay local taxes on their income. On the other hand UN consultants must.

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Gold, Silver Best Performing Assets In Q1, 2017

2017-04-06

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2017-04-06

YTD 2017 Relative Performance
Gold, silver two of the best performing assets in the first quarter of 2017 with gains of  8% and 14% respectively. Gold outperforms benchmarks – S&P 500 up 6%, MSCI (All Country World Index) up 6.4% (see tables). Nasdaq and German DAX rise 11.8% and 7.6%. Silver best performing currency in quarter. Five best performing currencies in Q1 are in order – silver, bitcoin, Mexican peso, Russian ruble and gold.

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Euro Saves Germany, Slaughters the PIGS, & Feeds the BLICS

2017-04-06

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2017-04-06

European Population vs. Total Europe Energy Consumption
The change in nations Core populations (25-54yr/olds) have driven economic activity for the later half of the 20th century, first upward and now downward. The Core is the working population, the family forming population, the child bearing population, the first home buying, and the credit happy primary consumer. Even a small increase (or contraction) in their quantity drives economic activity magnitudes beyond what the numbers would indicate.

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February US Trade Disappoints

2017-04-06

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2017-04-06

US Imports, Jun 1989 - 2016
The oversized base effects of oil prices could not in February 2017 push up overall US imports. The United States purchased, according to the Census Bureau, 71% more crude oil from global markets this February than in February 2016. In raw dollar terms, it was an increase of $7.3 billion year-over-year. Total imports, however, only gained $8.4 billion, meaning that nearly all the improvement was due to nothing more than the price of global oil.

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A fifth of Swiss can’t cope with an unexpected expense of 2,500 francs

2017-04-05

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2017-04-05

Unexpected-bills
In 2015, 21.7% of Switzerland’s population was unable to cover an unexpected expense of CHF 2,500 within a month, says a report from the Swiss Federal Statistics Office. Single parent families were the least able to cope with 46.1% of them falling into this camp. Single parent families were followed by single people under 65 (27.1%) and two-parent families (24.0%).

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FX Daily, April 05: Dialing it Up on Hump Day

2017-04-05

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2017-04-05

he dollar is practically unchanged against the euro and yen in the first two sessions of the week. The pace can be expected to pick up starting Wednesday. Although the euro slipped through $1.0650, it was not sustained, and on Monday and Tuesday, the euro finished near its highs.

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Systemic Depression Is A Clear Choice

2017-04-05

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2017-04-05

Japan CPI, Jan 2010 - 2017
Looking back on late 2015, it is perfectly clear that policymakers had no idea what was going on. It’s always easy, of course, to reflect on such things with the benefit of hindsight, but even contemporarily it was somewhat shocking how complacent they had become as a global group.

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Incomes Always Deviate Negative

2017-04-05

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2017-04-05

Real DPI per Capita, Jan 2010 - 2017
Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst.

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The American Empire and Economic Collapse

2017-04-05

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2017-04-05

American Empire
Despite widespread optimism among libertarians, classical liberals, non-interventionists, progressive peaceniks and everybody else opposed to the US Empire that some of its murderous reins may finally be pulled in with the election of Donald Trump, it appears that these hopes have now been dashed.

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The Balance of Gold and Silver – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2017-04-04

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2017-04-04

King Cnut the Great
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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German and Swiss Precious Metals Refiners join forces as Heraeus acquires Argor-Heraeus

2017-04-04

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2017-04-04

Singapore Germany Silver Bullionstar Bar 1kg
German precious metals group Heraeus Precious Metals (HPM), part of the Heraeus industrial group, has just announced the full acquisition of Swiss precious metals refining group Argor-Heraeus. Heraeus is headquartered in Hanau, just outside Frankfurt. Argor-Heraeus is headquartered in Mendrisio in the Swiss Canton of Ticino, beside the Italian border.

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Inclusion in SDR Does Not Spur Official Demand for the Yuan

2017-04-04

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2017-04-04

China's share of global reserves is in line with expectations prior to its inclusion in the SDR. Three factors influencing allocated reserves - valuation, portfolio decisions, and China's gradual inclusion in allocated reserves. The Swiss franc's as a reserve asset diminished, but the "other" category appeared robust.

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Consensus Inflation (Again)

2017-04-04

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2017-04-04

Europe Harmonized Inflation Consumer Prices , 2013 - 2019
Why did Mario Draghi appeal to NIRP in June 2014? After all, expectations at the time were for a strengthening recovery not just in Europe but all over the world. There were some concerns lingering over currency “irregularities” in 2013 but primarily related to EM’s and not the EU which had emerged from re-recession. The consensus at that time was full recovery not additional “stimulus.” From Bloomberg in January 2014:

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When the “Solutions” Become the Problems

2017-04-04

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2017-04-04

Lifecycle of Bureaucracy
Those benefiting from these destructive "solutions" may think the system can go on forever, but it cannot go on when every "solution" becomes a self-reinforcing problem that amplifies all the other systemic problems.

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Swiss Retail Sales, February: +0.5 percent Nominal and +0.6 percent Real

2017-04-03

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2017-04-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, February 2017
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.5% in nominal terms in February 2017 compared with the previous year. However, excluding turnover from service stations, retail turnover fell by 0.3%. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB interventions are rising again

2017-04-03

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2017-04-03

SNB Sight Deposite, April 03
The SNB intervenes for 1.6 bn CHF at EUR/CHF 1.07 - 1.0750. This is less than previously.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Last Reduction of Euro Short Positions?

2017-04-03

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2017-04-03

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc April 03
Speculators continued to reduce their net short euro exposure until March 28. Apparently they do not understand the difference between core inflation and the headline figure.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Macro Backdrop at the Start of the Second Quarter

2017-04-03

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2017-04-03

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year. The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical. The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it may not be several more months.

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