The Fed’s New Form of QE

2024-02-29

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple

2024-01-30

(1/30/24) Mega-cap Earnings reporting continues with Microsoft reporting today; companies are meeting (lowered0 expectations, but not blowing the doors off. Valuations & Reflexivity Theory teaser, FOMC Meeting preview: Will the Fed begin to cut rates sooner? Markets set another all-time high. Housing dynamics: Pricing & Size and living on $30k/year. Why the cost of Housing has risen as a result of Fed policy & mortgage rule changes. Why Elizabeth Warren is pushing Jerome Powell to lower rates "to expand affordable housing" vs how to really do it. How the Patriot Party ruined a perfectly good name; George Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity & economic bubbles; predicting the future: change comes gradually. Markets are good at reflecting reality, and all markets care about now is the Fed.

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2024-01-29

(1/29/24) Markets look to wrap up January on an upward trend, but this week’s FOMC meeting could affect that slope. the problem w economic data on the surface: Increasing GDP growth by adding debt. Who will provide the best policy mix to create stronger growth? Markets continue to rally as lowered earnings estimates and bigger beats provide support. Deviations from averages are difficult to maintain; look for market correction in the weaker month of February. Mega-cap companies are set to report this week and may sell-off. The myth of cash on the sidelines: Where does that money come from? Credit markets & the Federal Reserve: What could happen as more and more Americans own stocks? Buying Blue Chips cheap: the price we’re willing to pay has accelerated (watch for article this week on

2024-01-25

(1/25/24) The first estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP is released today: It’s only a guess, but expected to be slightly above 2%, which would be the slowest rate of growth since 2023, and coming off Q3 growth of 4.9% (NOTE: The actual number, released after this show aired, is 3.3%, still a significant slowdown from the previous quarter). The connection between GDP growth and earnings; valuations matter. The markets’ rally continues; is correction coming? The Fed changes stance: will there be regrets? The Fed’s #1 Goal is financial stability. The Fed is great at lighting fires, but not so good at putting them out. Is the Fed prepping for crisis? Fahrenheit 451 and The New Truth: cursive writing & The Constitution. Is 3% inflation the camel’s nose under the tent? What inflation really means,

2023-11-30

(11/30/23) Face-off Movie, Bond Math, and Market Preview: How does the Consumer continue to spend? Texas’ Christmas spending habits = $817/avg. Budgeting for Christmas w price pressure in mind. Will interest rates be but next year (why wouild the Fed do that)? Michael Lebowitz helps crunch the Bond Math: What price changes mean in the Bond Market. What is the credit risk to consider? How will you be paid? Recession is inevitable; how long do you want to hold a bond? Discounts vs Yields: doing the bond math (Bondilocks) factoring duration in getting paid; the higher the yield, the shorter the duration. Narrative Economics & The Federal Debt: what is happening to debt service? Is the US Fiscally-dysfunctional? Slwer Growth, less wealth, deflation are the results. It’s the interest expense

2023-11-29

(11/29/23) Berkshire Hathaway #2 man, Charlie Munger, has passed at age 99. We explore memorable quips and quotes from this amazing investor.
Hosted by RIA’s Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why the S&P is Up 17% and You’re Not"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"S&P 500 Market Returns And Why Your Performance Is Worse"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-market-returns-and-why-your-performance-is-worse/
"Complacency Seems Overly Complacent"

2023-11-17

What does the Fed know that they’re not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here:
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s
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2023-11-10

(11/10/23) It’s the Financial Fitness Friday edition of The Real Investment Show w RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, and Senior Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP.
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
And here’s Wednesday’s "Before the Bell" edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video:
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Our previous show is here: "Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan?"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?"