The Bull Market is Showing Some Cracks

2024-03-25

There are three components of a “market bubble.” The first two, price and valuation, often get dismissed or rationalized during the inflation phase. That rationalization is due to investor psychology and the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.)

Stop the re-makes of ’80’s movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed’s Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than

2024-03-06

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed’s blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin joined by Gold as a speculative asset. The proposed government match to 4-01-k’s: Nice idea, but few will be able to take advantage; and what about the unintended consequences? the effect of inflation on the economy. Why cap savings? IF the economy is doing so great, why do we feel so bad about it? The Hunger Games & the Kellogg’s boycott.

2024-01-10

(1/10/24) Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Finanical Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Missed It "By That Much"" is here:
-I32Ir1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=81s
——-
Our previous show is here: "Keep An Eye on Bankruptcies"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter"

2023-12-19

Has owning a pet become a luxury? Financial Planning for Pets: $2,640 avg. annual expense; making emotional decisions about money. The benefits of pet ownership and caring for pets.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
——–
Watch today’s show on our YouTube channel:
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Santa Claus Rally Arrives Ahead of Schedule," is here:
&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our

2023-12-08

T-Bill & Chill? Putting cash to work in a 5% world. Bankers are betting you’re going to be lazy; what will you do when rates go back down?

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Senior Financial Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
Watch the full show from which this excerpt was lifted on our YouTube channel:
_6H1Iac&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What the VIX is Saying" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our previous show is here: "#Bitcoin Back in the Headlines"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"The Fed Pauses: What Comes Next?"

2023-12-07

(12/7/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Happens When Buybacks Go Away " is here: -jBIrzg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our previous show is here: "Is There Hope for 2024?"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2656s
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wall-street-analysts-are-optimistic-for-2024/
"Recessionary Indicators Update. Soft Landing Or Worse?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/recessionary-indicators-update-soft-landing-or-worse/
——-
Get more info &

2023-12-04

(12/4/23) Welcome to the first full week of December trading; a review of Mrs. Roberts’ Birthday Weekend; market-wise, the stock buy back window is closing; expectations for a hawkish Fed statement next week; mutual fund distributions are coming; be cautious about being overly bullish. Rotations from the Magnificent Seven are beginning; the ‘Everything’ Rally went too far, too fast. We’re back where we were in July; losses were mitigated by the Magnificent Seven. Chasing last year’s leaders is not a good idea. As we wrap up 2023, we believe December will be more muted, barely positive. Recession talk has not abated, slower growth is expected, which is why the Fed had paused. Jerome Powell is not in as good a position as before, saying it is "premature to conclude when policy might ease."

2023-12-01

(12/1/23) The next James Bond movie should be called, "Convexity," starring Michael Lebowitz; looking at the Climate Summit: What’s on Bill Gates’ agenda? ESG is a farce; it’s all about big business; eating bugs and drinking beetle juice. How to execute Thematic Investing; what are the rules needed to manage? The Magazine of Wall Street: How times have changed. Financial Ghosts-past: learning from your mistakes. Calculating your personal debt-to-income ratio, and our recommendations; the wisdom of waiting; wants vs needs. Careful of using online tools to calculate debt ratios (know the source!) "Standard Rules" vs reality. Home affordability and the trend toward smaller houses. Money Scripts & the $5 test: The Ratliff Safe (TM)

2:53 – Convexity & Climate Summits
14:12 – Thematic