What Will Powell’s Words Mean for Bonds? (11/9/23)

2024-02-28

Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trading despite 40% reporting negative earnings. What happens when men get sick; Lance answers an email about struggles with higher expenses, despite zero debt; Lance & Danny discuss families’ cost-cutting strategies. Wendy’s experiments with surge pricing; investing wisdom from Warrenn Buffett: What’s he going to do with all that cash? The temptation for "catching-up" in portfolios, and the lure of

2024-02-26

Retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early stages of an economic recovery. Since debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the promised economic growth, disappointment over the next year is almost guaranteed.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data:"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/small-cap-stocks-may-be-at-risk-according-to-nfib-data/
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The latest

2024-02-20

There are "Dow Days" and "NSDQ Days;" CPI inflation is still transitory; emerging influence of presidential election on Congress’ ability to manage debt & spending, M-2 as % of GDP. There is little expectation for earnings growth this year. Markets remain in bullish trend, but a negative day today could trigger MCD Sell-signal. Time to reduce portfolio risk and wait until correction to put capital back to work. Instead of fearing market exuberance, understanding what drives it can provide you with insight and opportunity. look at Employment data and the frustration of college grads unable to find jobs. The Immigration connection to it all: Why we need (merit-based) immigration: Demography is destiny.

2:28 – Dow Days vs NSDQ Days: Correction Coming
13:43 – Understanding ll-time Highs

2023-12-12

(12/12/23) It’s CPI Day, and November inflation clocked-in at an expected rate of .1%, which now begs the answer to tomorrow’s question: Will the Fed do? A review of market performance vs portfolio performance: What metric are you using to measure success? Market history vs current market dynamics, and the investor conundrum" How "this time" could very well be different. We have seen a classical conditioning of the markets: The Fed always comes to the rescue. All you need to know about QE from Ben Bernanke in 2010. Al Gore is up in arms over no elimination of fossil fuels (which are necessary for life as we know it). Tik-Tok news and "adult" discussions; Poll: Are economic conditions getting worse? Data sources. Composites of the CPI: What matters more–CPI or Core CPI (what the Fed

2023-12-05

(12/5/23)

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is a Sell-off Nigh for the Magnificent Seven?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Context And Facts Expose Bearish Bond Narratives"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/context-and-facts-expose-bearish-bond-narratives/
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Register for our next Candid Coffee:

2023-11-30

(11/30/23) Face-off Movie, Bond Math, and Market Preview: How does the Consumer continue to spend? Texas’ Christmas spending habits = $817/avg. Budgeting for Christmas w price pressure in mind. Will interest rates be but next year (why wouild the Fed do that)? Michael Lebowitz helps crunch the Bond Math: What price changes mean in the Bond Market. What is the credit risk to consider? How will you be paid? Recession is inevitable; how long do you want to hold a bond? Discounts vs Yields: doing the bond math (Bondilocks) factoring duration in getting paid; the higher the yield, the shorter the duration. Narrative Economics & The Federal Debt: what is happening to debt service? Is the US Fiscally-dysfunctional? Slwer Growth, less wealth, deflation are the results. It’s the interest expense

2023-11-29

(11/29/23) Berkshire Hathaway #2 man, Charlie Munger, has passed at age 99. We explore memorable quips and quotes from this amazing investor.
Hosted by RIA’s Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why the S&P is Up 17% and You’re Not"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"S&P 500 Market Returns And Why Your Performance Is Worse"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-market-returns-and-why-your-performance-is-worse/
"Complacency Seems Overly Complacent"

2023-11-17

What does the Fed know that they’re not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here:
-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s
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