Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan? (11/8/23)

2024-02-06

(2/6/24) Market Behavior in a Presidential Cycle: Markets are positioning for a GOP win in November; Jerome Powell is now more inclined to NOT cut rates any time soon. Markets now need a narrative to support their current thesis, but it’s only fundamentals that really matter. The Apple Vision goggle phenom. Markets sell-off, but knocking on the door of 5,000 in the S&P 500: now dealing with gravitational pull. Yields are reversing. NYC giving freebies to immigrants a la MMT: the flaws in that theory. Non-productive debt creates weaker economic growth. ISM Services index edge up into expansion; the quest to S&P 5000; Eli Lilly performance; why we own the stocks we own: We have to make money for our clients, and that’s where the action is. How long can the Magnificent-7 continue to rise?

2024-02-01

(2/1/24) Amelia Earhart was lost 83-years ago, and her missing plane may have been located in the Pacific Ocean, solving the mystery of her disappearance. The mystery of how the Fed operates, however, remains an enigma. And in 2024, there political implications the Fed must also consider (could Kennedy "Perot" the election?) Markets sold off after Jerome Powell promised no rate cuts anytime soon, but bonds had a good day as Treasury shifted stance in favor of longer-termed bonds. Elon Musk could move to Texas from Delaware just in time for Texas to secede. The markets’ response to Jerome Powell’s promise of no rate relief anytime soon; could Apple, Amazon, & Meta reports and subsequent performance could alter the dynamics of the Magnificent-7 to the Super-6 or Fab-5? What about the other

2024-01-24

(1/24/24) Netflix dominates the streaming space, once again; coming up: more rate increases. At what point do subscribers say, ‘enough,’ and revert to bundling? For Netflix, what is the customer acquisition cost? The Richmond Fed Index disappoints; Commentary on Bonds’ day-to-day moves: It’s just noise. Yields are not over bought. Danny Ratliff relates his home rehab hell and dealing with insurance adjusters (it’s a racket). The "joys" of home ownership. Netflix & the phenomenal NASDAQ decade; is this a "sus" market? HSA expansion plans & triple-tax benefit (if you can get it).Should all healthcare plans be high-deductible? How companies are reducing healthcare expenses. Japan’s just=in-time inventory management vs the US; No concern about supply chain disruptions from shutdowns. This

2024-01-23

(1/23/24) Expectations for volatility to pick up, as the risk of earnings warnings rise. Leading economic indicators have been negative for 21-months, yet where’s the Recession? What is the risk to outlook in earnings? The most stupid chart on the planet: All-time highs come in clusters (y’think?) Yep, and we’ll likely get another one today. How can markets be hitting all-time highs, and the majority of the public is quite pessimistic? Axios’ poll: The country is bummed out by the economy. Bitcoin performance, post-EFT? Increased volatility & net drawdowns. Give it a little more time.

2:55 – Earnings Season Marches On: What is the risk to earnings going forward?
14:23 – Event Tease | All-time Highs in a Bifurcated Market
30:07 – The Disconnect Between Markets and Most Americans
44:12 –

2023-12-04

(12/4/23) Welcome to the first full week of December trading; a review of Mrs. Roberts’ Birthday Weekend; market-wise, the stock buy back window is closing; expectations for a hawkish Fed statement next week; mutual fund distributions are coming; be cautious about being overly bullish. Rotations from the Magnificent Seven are beginning; the ‘Everything’ Rally went too far, too fast. We’re back where we were in July; losses were mitigated by the Magnificent Seven. Chasing last year’s leaders is not a good idea. As we wrap up 2023, we believe December will be more muted, barely positive. Recession talk has not abated, slower growth is expected, which is why the Fed had paused. Jerome Powell is not in as good a position as before, saying it is "premature to conclude when policy might ease."

2023-12-01

(12/1/23) The next James Bond movie should be called, "Convexity," starring Michael Lebowitz; looking at the Climate Summit: What’s on Bill Gates’ agenda? ESG is a farce; it’s all about big business; eating bugs and drinking beetle juice. How to execute Thematic Investing; what are the rules needed to manage? The Magazine of Wall Street: How times have changed. Financial Ghosts-past: learning from your mistakes. Calculating your personal debt-to-income ratio, and our recommendations; the wisdom of waiting; wants vs needs. Careful of using online tools to calculate debt ratios (know the source!) "Standard Rules" vs reality. Home affordability and the trend toward smaller houses. Money Scripts & the $5 test: The Ratliff Safe (TM)

2:53 – Convexity & Climate Summits
14:12 – Thematic

2023-11-03

(11/3/23) What will Jerome Powell & Co do next? (We consult the Fed 8-bal.) Real Inflation is not going down; real wages have been negative for the past two years. The Markets is not the Economy. Apple earnings & China’s recession; the de-globalization process: How to plan & prepare? Making money w/cash. Candid Coffee preview; making tough financial decisions: We’re not here to make you feel good. Nana Rosso, "Russ" Rosso & Rusty Ratliff. Defining your plan’s success: No one is perfect. How to tweak your financial plan; how we deal with clients who need help with theirs.

2:41 – What will the Fed do next?
13:57 – How to Plan & Prepare during De-Globalization Process
29:57 – Making Tough Financial Plans
44:06 – Defining Your Financial Plan Success

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