What Would You Give Up (to ensure SS is around for you)? (11/10/23)

2024-05-02

The Fed is trying to navigate ahead of a potential recession by managing inflation. Will they succeed in creating a "Goldilocks economy”? #Fed #Inflation #Economy

In this insightful video, Michael Lebowitz discusses the Federal Reserve’s current challenge in balancing economic growth and inflation. Uncover the subtle maneuvers the Fed believes could maintain a ‘Goldilocks economy’ amidst various hidden economic signals.
– Examining the Fed’s desire to avoid both recession and high inflation.
– The concept of a Goldilocks economy and its feasibility.
– Indicators that suggest the economy may not be as robust as perceived.
– The impact of the real rate of Federal funds on the economy.
– Strategies the Fed might use to manage economic conditions without triggering inflationary

2024-04-24

Is the Tech Stock pullback healthy? What’s the difference in Bond ratings? Who is really being affected by a tripling of interest rates? These and other pressing financial and investing questions were fielded on our most recent Candid Coffee.
This was an "open-mic" edition of Candid Coffee, with all questions coming from registered participants; the questions’ time codes are noted below.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

0:00 – Intro & Market recap:
3:30 – Tech stocks’ pull back is healthy; geopolitical risks;
8:05 – The difference between bond ratings
12:47 – Pension Fund investments in REITS w high default risk
19:19 – Are Roth distributions

2024-04-23

Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your inheritance. How to manage funds qwith legacy intent in mind. The important of financial planning before retirement; what is the rate of return you need? The importance of budgeting; financial mistakes you should avoid within five years of retirement; dealing with the rule changes. Dealing with and planning for Social Security. What is the income threshold for converting from pre-tax to Roth IRA?

3:13 – Market Commentary: Are the more declines to come?
14:30 – How to Manage Funds with Legacy Intent in Mind
30:20 – Five Financial Mistakes

2024-03-05

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.

2024-03-04

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.

3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2023-11-17

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso’s adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart’s results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American’s still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.

2:35 – Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality
13:51 – Butterball Turkey Talk Line
17:59 – Spending Results for 2023
29:57

2023-11-09

(11/9/23) Markets continue their winning ways, elongating a string of positive closes; Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak today: What effect will his words have on Bonds? Why do the debt and deficits matter so much now? (Keep in mind the narrative…) Have financial conditions eased or reversed? What will the Fed do next? Meanwhile, Markets to test resistance at 100-DMA. How Robinhood lost its luster, and why there should be commissions on all trades (nothing is free). Meanwhile, DraftKings has kept up: What’s the difference between gambling on sports vs stocks? Did Robinhood user ever really know what they were doing? The mistake of assigning value to stock price. The Fed’s ‘Wait & See’ approach will be further revealed in Jerome Powell’s speech today. Changing the face of