Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, October 05: Euro Remains Firm Despite Dubious Tapering Story

2016-10-05

by

2016-10-05

FX Performance, October 05 2016 Movers and Shakers
After the sudden rise to 1.0973 the EUR/CHF is falling again. The volatiliy is related to the CHF speculative postion, that suddenly was Short CHF. Traders that moved with the SNB Window Dressing for Q3 are closing their shorts again.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 04: Sterling’s Slide Continues, EUR/CHF Soars Again

2016-10-04

by

2016-10-04

FX Performance, October 4, 2016
UK Prime Minister May's comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970.

Read More »

The Yen in Three Charts

2016-10-04

by

2016-10-04

The dollar is taking out a several month downtrend against the yen. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 has broken down. The US 2-year premium over Japan has steadily risen.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 03: May’s Confirmation Sends Sterling Lower

2016-10-03

by

2016-10-03

FX Performance, October 03 2016 Movers and Shakers
Sterling has a bad case of the Monday blues. Even the moon looks distraught. Prime Minister May has confirmed earlier suggestions that she will trigger Article 50 to formally begin its divorce proceedings from the EU at the end of Q1 17. Several officials have already hinted this time frame, though many have been skeptical that Article 50 would be triggered at all, given the complexities of the issues.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Two Bookends

2016-10-02

by

2016-10-02

The start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank's travails and dollar funding pressures, which may or may not be related. The end of the week features the US monthly jobs report. Despite being a noisy, high frequency time series subject to significant revisions, this report like none other can drive expectations of Fed policy.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 30: SNB Intervenes to Polish Q3 Results

2016-09-30

by

2016-09-30

FX Performance, September 30 2016 Movers and Shakers
True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note. On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona. Global equities are trading heavily, and investors' angst is lending support to bond markets.

Read More »

Divergence: Norway and Sweden

2016-09-30

by

2016-09-30

Twins
Sweden has one of the weakest of the major currencies this year. Norway has one of the strongest of the major currencies this year. The key driver is divergence of monetary policy and that divergence is likely continue into next year.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 29: Dollar Quietly Bid, while Market is Skeptical of OPEC Deal

2016-09-29

by

2016-09-29

FX performance, September 29 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen's weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now more than 0.3%, the yen is 0.75% lower. That puts the greenback at a six-day high (~JPY101.75) at its best.

Read More »

Quick Look at Why the September Jobs Data will Likely Be Strong

2016-09-29

by

2016-09-29

There are several economic data points that suggest a healthy gain in jobs in September. College educated unemployment is 2.5% with high school graduate unemployment at 5.5%. The jobs report we expect is consistent with a Fed hike in December.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly

2016-09-28

by

2016-09-28

FX Performance 2016, September 28 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 27: US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

2016-09-27

by

2016-09-27

FX Performance September 27, 2016
Since the monetary assessment meeting, the EUR/CHF is trending downwards. Sight deposits indicate that the SNB is intervening 0.9 bn per week. We emphasized that the preferred intervention corridor is between 1.08 and 1.0850. The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso. The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 26: Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

2016-09-26

by

2016-09-26

FX Performance September 26, 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer. The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Nearly Five-Month Uptrend in the Dollar Index Set to be Tested

2016-09-26

by

2016-09-26

US Dollar Index, September 26, 2016
DXY has been holding an uptrend since early May. It looks set to be tested near-term and technical indicators suggest it may not hold. Here are the two scenarios of penetration.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 23: It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again

2016-09-23

by

2016-09-23

FX Performance September 23, 2016 Dukascopy Movers and Shakers
As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged. If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 22: Swiss Franc Strongest Currency Again

2016-09-22

by

2016-09-22

Movers and Shakers, September 22,
Once again the Swiss Franc was the strongest. The EUR/CHF depreciated to 1.0875. As said yesterday, the reasons: the Fed and the strong Swiss trade balance.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 21: BOJ Can’t Weaken Yen, Fed keeps Rates Unchanged, CHF Stronger

2016-09-21

by

2016-09-21

The EUR/CHF accelerated its decline since yesterday's strong Swiss trade balance data. The second reason was certainly the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged. We know that the Swiss Franc has similar "counter-dollar" status as gold.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 20: The Swiss Franc Continues To Rise.

2016-09-20

by

2016-09-20

Movers and Shakers, September 20
The trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not. The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued. And the franc continues to appreciate.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Begins Important Week on Softer Note

2016-09-19

by

2016-09-19

The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings. The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of the weekend, but investors continue to see a low probability of a Fed hike this week.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Median U.S. Income per Presidents

2016-09-19

by

2016-09-19

How Median Income Changed Under Each President
Median household income was higher in 2015 than in 2008, but still below 1999 peak in real terms. The bottom fifth of households by income have just recouped what was lost. Income growth did best under (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, including for top 5%. Origin of strong dollar policy means it will not be used as a trade weapon and it hasn't since Bentsen.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Punctuated Equilibrium and the Forces of Movement

2016-09-18

by

2016-09-18

Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.

Read More »