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Tag Archive: #USD

FX Weekly Preview: Events Not Data Key in Week Ahead

2017-06-19

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2017-06-19

Light economic data calendar, but look for downtick in eurozone flash PMI. Soft Canadian retail sales (volume) and softer CPI (base effect) could take some of the sting from the recent BoC official comments. MSCI decision on China, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea may have the broadest and long-lasting impact of the five key events we highlight.

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FX Daily, June 16: Dollar Slips In Consolidation, but Extends Recovery Against the Yen

2017-06-16

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2017-06-16

As the market heads into the weekend, the US dollar is trading softer as it consolidates. It is within yesterday's ranges against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The dollar has made a dramatic recovery against the yen. It traded near JPY108.80 in the middle of the week and pushed through JPY111 in late in the Tokyo morning. The greenback is above its 20-day moving average against the yen for the first time in a month.

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FX Daily, June 15: Dollar Trades Higher in Wake of the FOMC

2017-06-15

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2017-06-15

The US dollar gains scored yesterday in response to what appeared to be a more hawkish FOMC than expected have been extended today. The euro and the Swiss franc have recorded new lows for the month.

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FX Daily, June 14: FOMC and upcoming SNB

2017-06-14

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2017-06-14

The Euro has risen by 0.37% to 1.0901 CHF. This is a typical movement ahead of the SNB meeting tomorrow. This movement is probably unrelated to the Fed rate hike, given that the USD/JPY has fallen. It makes sense to go long CHF against JPY, if you bet on an inactive SNB. Inactive SNB would mean that the central bank will not speak about stronger FX Interventions or about lower rates.

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FX Daily, June 13: Dollar Softens Ahead of Start of FOMC Meeting

2017-06-13

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2017-06-13

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against all the major currencies save the Japanese yen. The Scandis and Canadian dollar are leading the move. Sweden reported a 0.1% rise in the headline and underlying inflation while the median expected a decline of the same magnitude. The year-over-year pace slowed but not as much as expected.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead

2017-06-12

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2017-06-12

FOMC, BoE, and BOJ meet next week; only the Fed is expected to change policy. High frequency data may be less important than the central bank meetings and politics in the week ahead. UK political situation is far from resolved, and US drama continues, while several hot spots in the EMU are emerging.

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FX Daily, June 09: Sterling Shocked, Dollar Broadly Firmer

2017-06-09

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2017-06-09

What looked like a savvy move in late April has turned into a nightmare. Collectively, voters have denied the governing Conservative party a parliamentary majority. The uncertainty today does not lie yesterday with the known unknown, but with the shape of the next government and what it means for Brexit.

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FX Daily, June 07: Markets Mark Time Ahead of Tomorrow

2017-06-07

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2017-06-07

Tomorrow may be the most important day of the quarter for investors. The ECB meets. The UK goes to the polls. Former FBI Comey testifies. Ahead of these significant events, the global capital markets are mostly quiet, with some pockets of activity.

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FX Daily, June 06: Yen Propelled Higher

2017-06-06

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2017-06-06

The week was supposed to be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, but the yen is stealing the show in the first part of the week. The US dollar has been sold through JPY110 for the first time since late April. The euro has fallen from JPY125.30 before the weekend to JPY123.25 today.

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Euro Shrugs off European Banking Woes

2017-06-06

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2017-06-06

Spain's Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside.

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FX Weekly Preview: ECB Meeting and UK Election Key Drivers in Week Ahead

2017-06-05

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2017-06-05

ECB may take a baby step toward the exit of extraordinary monetary policy by confirming rates are unlikely to be cut further and the risks are roughly balanced. UK election is coming down to the wire. In the US, former FBI director Comey is set to testify, and leaks of two Fed appointments overshadow mostly second-tier economic data.

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Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report

2017-06-02

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2017-06-02

Poor jobs growth won't challenge June hike expectations but September and balance sheet. Little positive in today's report. Drop in unemployment explained by drop in participation rate. Trade deficit was larger than expected, which may point to slower Q2 growth.

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FX Daily, June 02: Dollar Marks Time Ahead of US Jobs Report

2017-06-02

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2017-06-02

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed. The euro has been confined to less than a 20-pip range through the Asian session and most of the European morning. The news stream is light. The US withdrawal from the Paris Accord may have garnered the headlines, but as a market force, it is difficult to detect the immediate impact.

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FX Daily, June 01: Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels, Sterling Struggles

2017-06-01

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2017-06-01

The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies. It is consolidating yesterday's losses more than staging much of a recovery. Even sterling, where a YouGov poll has the Tory lead at three percentage points, down from seven previously, is above yesterday's lows. On the other hand, even strong data from Japan did not drive the yen higher.

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FX Daily, May 31: Sterling Takes it On the Chin

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

Projections showing that the UK Tories could lose their outright majority in Parliament in next week's election spurred sterling sales, which snapped a two-day advance.  Polls at the end of last week showed a sharp narrowing of the contest, and this saw sterling shed 1.3% last Thursday and Friday. 

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What Happened Monday

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

No impact from the latest North Korean missile test. Polls suggest Tories still ahead for the June 8 election. Prospects of an Italian election this year weighed on Italian stocks and bonds.

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FX Daily, May 30: Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs

2017-05-30

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2017-05-30

With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for the fourth session.

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FX Weekly Preview: Twin Peaks: US Economy and EMU Inflation

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world's largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak in six months.

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FX Daily, May 26: Anxiety Levels Rise Ahead of Weekend

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

The markets are unsettled. It is not so much in the magnitude of moves as the breadth of the move. The nearly 1% rally in gold is a tell, but also the inability of equity market to follow the lead of the US markets, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new records. US yields are softer, and the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, up 0.7% against the greenback.

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FX Daily, May 25: Euro Strength more than Dollar Weakness

2017-05-25

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2017-05-25

The Dollar Index is heavy, just above the lows set earlier this week set near 96.80. However, this exaggerates the dollar's weakness because the weight of the euro and currencies that shadow it, like the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. As the North American session is about to start, the dollar is higher against the dollar-bloc currencies and the Japanese yen.

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