Tag Archive: #USD
Cool Video: CNBC Asia–Mostly about the Redback and Greenback
I was invited to appear on CNBC Asia Rundown show with Pauline Chiou. We discuss the Chinese yuan on the anniversary of last summer's unexpected devaluation. I suggest that most of the things that get observers excited, like the internationalization of the yuan, or the Hong Kong-Shanghai link or, perhaps by the end of the year,a Hong Kong-Shenzhen link are really Chinese machinations that are the result of its contradictions.
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FX Daily, August 10: FX Consolidation Resolved in Favor of Weaker US Dollar
European bourses are mixed, and this is leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 practically unchanged in late-European morning turnover. Financials are the strongest sector (+0.4%), and within it, the insurance sector is leading with a 0.8% advance and banks are up 0.4%. The FTSE's Italian bank index is up 1.4% to extend its recovery into a fifth session.
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FX Daily, August 04: The BOE Owns Today, but Tomorrow is a Different Story
The Swiss Franc appreciated today against the euro. Given that the Bank of England started monetary easing, this slight appreciation is unexpectedly weak - reason was probably intervention. The SNB intervention level should be around 1 billion francs. Numbers revealed in next week's sight deposits.
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FX Daily, August 03: Consolidation Featured
The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses. The greenback's upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week's RBNZ meeting. Softer than expected labor cost increase reinforces the conviction that a 25 bp rate cut will be delivered next week.
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Gorilla or Elephant, Chinese Surplus Capacity is the Challenge
China's excess capacity is one of the most formidable challenges the China and the world face. Unexpectedly, China's steel industry reported a profit in H1 16. M&A for industry rationalization and foreign markets seem to be the main ways China is trying to address the excess capacity.
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FX Daily, August 02: Greenback Slides Despite RBA Rate Cut and 7-year Low in UK Construction PMI
The US dollar is offered against the major currencies, but appreciating against many emerging market currencies, include the South African rand and Turkish lira. Oil prices are trying to stabilize with Brent near $42 and WTI near $40, but the recent losses continue to weigh on the Malaysian ringgit and the Mexican peso.
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FX Daily, August 01: Dog Days of August Begin
The US dollar is trading with a small upside bias in narrow trading ranges. The main news has consisted of PMI reports, while investors continue to digest last week's developments. In particular the BOJ's underwhelming response to poor economic data and a missed opportunity to reinforce the fiscal stimulus, and the dismal US GDP.
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Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar
The real broad trade-weighted dollar index rose in July for the third month. It peaked in January above trendline drawn through the Reagan and Clinton dollar rallies. Expect the trendline to be violated again before the end of the year.
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FX Weekly Preview: After this Week, Does August Matter?
RBA meeting is a close call. BOE meeting consensus on rate cut, maybe new QE and lending-for-funding. More details of Japan's fiscal policy. U.S. jobs data. After this week, and outside of RBNZ rate cut, August may be uneventful.
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FX Daily, July 28: Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC
After reversing lower yesterday after the FOMC statement, the US dollar has continued to move lower against the major currencies, save sterling. While the market is not fully confident of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicative pricing in the derivative markets suggest a UK rate cut has been fully discounted (and a new asset purchase plan may also be announced).
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Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tomorrow Promises to be Tumultuous
Japan reports on labor, consumption, inflation and industrial output before the BOJ meeting. ECB reports inflation and Q2 GDP and the results of the stress test on banks. US reports first look at Q2 GDP.
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FX Daily, July 27: Yen Falls on Fiscal Stimulus, while Sterling and Aussie Can’t Sustain Upticks
Swiss Franc: The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday's rapid rise. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.
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FX Daily, July 26: Strange Day: Yen Soars , Swissie Falls
The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical.
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Fed to Stand Pat, but Statement may be More Constructive
The Fed's nervousness in June has likely largely eased on the back of better economic data and stable international climate. The Fed may reintroduce its risk assessment. Who are the possible dissents?
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FX Daily, July 25: Big Week Begins Slowly
What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly. The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies. Equity markets are mostly firmer following the new record highs on Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain (0.1%), with losses in Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore offsetting gains elsewhere.
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Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further
With today's losses the Sept contract has retraced 50% of this year's rally. The oil glut has partly been transformed into a gasoline glut. US rig count is rising and output has increased two weeks in a row.
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FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July
A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.
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Weekly Speculation Positions: Bullish on Dollar and Dollar-Bloc
Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July. They are more Bullish on Dollar and on the Dollar-Bloc currencies.
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FX Daily, July 22: Flash PMIs Show Brexit Impact Localized
As the week draws to a close, there are three main developments in the capital markets. First, the profit-taking seen in US equities yesterday has continued in Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe are both off around 0.5%.
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