Tag Archive: United States

The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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Forget Non-Farm Payrolls, Take US Personal Disposable Income as Lead Economic Indicator

The unreliable Non-Farm Payrolls has far too much importance  Interesting to see that markets needed two relatively bad NFPs to really believe that their main indicators, the “Non-Farm Payroll” reports were strongly biased in January and February by a positive weather effect. HFT algorithms that highly influence stock market prices, are not able to take …

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Oil price increases in 2012 and why they are not real

Oil prices  Oil prices will rise quickly this year along with the recovery, the Iran issues and last but not least driven by investor demands of yield, implemented in the HFT algos. Interestingly the Iran issues already existed in December, but oil prices were falling, at that moment investors did not believe in a global recovery yet, …

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Keynesians vs. Anti-Keynesians: How price deflation has kick started the US growth

In recent posts Keynesians were criticized that hikes in the monetary base like Quantitative Easing (QE2) failed to lift the US economy, but it was the debt ceiling that helped to restore confidence in the US and that austerity can lead to GDP growth. Paul Krugman angrily replied that “even a huge rise in the …

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