Tag Archive: U.K. Consumer Price Index

FX Daily, October 16: Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 18: FOMC Meets Amid Money Market Pressures

Overview:  News that Saudi Arabia was able to restore 40%-50% of the oil capacity lost by the weekend strike coupled with the Fed's efforts to offset the squeeze in the money markets are allowing the global capital markets to trade quietly ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.  Equities are little changed with a lower bias that has been seen in the first few sessions this week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 17: Back to the Well Again

Overview:  After slapping punitive tariffs on structural from China and Mexico last week, US President Trump threatened to end the tariff truce with China because it is not stepped up its purchases of US agriculture products.  Trump said the tariff freeze was in exchange for ag purchases, but at the time it seemed as if granting licenses to US companies to sell to Huawei was the quid pro quo.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 19: Still Patient?

Overview:  Risk-taking was bolstered by the dramatic shift in Draghi's rhetoric less than two weeks after the ECB meeting and a Trump's tweet announcing that there was going to be an  "extended" meeting between him and Xi at the G20 meeting and that the respective staff would begin coordinating. It was later confirmed by the Chinese media.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 22: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way

Overview:   There is a nervous calm in the capital markets.  Yesterday's rally in US shares failed to excite global investors.  China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets fell, while Japan was mixed. Foreign investors continued to sell Korean shares, but the Kospi rose.  European shares narrowly mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 15: Lira Rallies on Cut in Swaps, but Fails to Dent Dollar Demand

The Turkish lira is extending yesterday's recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap transactions banks can do to 25% of shareholder equity. This is meant to make it more difficult to access lira in the offshore swaps market, which is an important channel.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 18: Greenback Extends Gains-For Now

After softening in Europe yesterday, the dollar recovered in the North American session with the help of assurances by Fed Chair Powell who reaffirmed the path gradual path despite clear recognition that tariffs threaten wages and growth.  The greenback has extended those gains today and is higher against all the emerging market currencies, expected the Turkish lira, which is slightly firmer.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 13: Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of FOMC

The US dollar is trading firmly as the FOMC decision looms. In many ways, the actionable outcome of this meeting has hardly been in doubt this year. By all accounts, the Fed will deliver its second hike of the year today.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 23: Dollar and Yen Surge, European Data Disappoints

The US dollar has extended its gains against most of the major currencies. Momentum, positioning, and divergence continue to drive it. The euro briefly traded a little below $1.17, an important technical area and has enjoyed a bounce in late morning turnover in Europe.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 18: Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against major and most emerging market currencies. Sterling, which has become a market darling, hit an air pocket after softer than expected CPI. UK headline CPI rose 0.1% in March, while the market expected a 0.3% increase. The recently introduced preferred measure, CPIH slipped to 2.3% from 2.5%, the weakest in a year.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 13: Tuesday’s Two Developments

There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board, and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September's low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended Monday's recovery with another 0.5% gain. However, looking closer, the momentum faltered.

Read More »

FX Daily, January 16: Dollar Given a Reprieve

After extending its recent slide yesterday, which the US markets were on holiday, the dollar is firmer against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies. There does not seem to be macroeconomic developments behind the dollar's stabilization, and the gains are quite minor, suggesting a pause in the downtrend rather than a reversal at this juncture.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 12: UK Front and Center, but Sterling is Laggard in Today’s Move Against the Dollar

The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The upside surprise in Sweden's inflation is helped the krona recover from its recent slide. It is the strongest of the majors, gaining 1.1% against the dollar and nearly as much against the euro, which is in a third of a cent range below $1.18.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 14: Euro Rides High After German GDP

Sterling is trading in the lower end of yesterday's range and has been confined to about a quarter a cent on either side of $1.31. On the other hand, the euro has pushed a bit through GBP0.8950 to reach its best level since October 26. Sweden also reported softer than expected October inflation.

Read More »

Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold

UK economy outlook bleak amid Brexit, debt woes and rising inflation. Confidence in UK housing market at five-year low. UK high street sales crash at fastest rate since 2009. Number registering as insolvent in England and Wales hit a five-year high in Q3. UK public finance hole of almost £20bn in the public finances set to grow to £36bn by 2021-22. Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial woes in UK.

Read More »

Central Bank Chiefs and Currencies

Market opinion on the next Fed chief is very fluid. BOE Governor Carney sticks to view, but short-sterling curve flattens. New Bank of Italy Governor sought. A second term for Kuroda may be more likely after this weekend election.

Read More »

Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures

Brexit UK vulnerable as gold bar exports distort UK trade figures. Britain’s gold exports worth more than any other physical export. Gold accounted for more than one in ten pounds of UK exports in July 2017. UK’s stock of wealth has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn – ONS error. Brexiteers argue majority of trade is outside EU, this is due to large London gold exports. Single gold bar (London Good Delivery) is, at today’s...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 12: Dollar Sports Heavier Tone as Yesterday’s Bounce Runs out of Steam

The sporadic updates continue while I am on a two-week business trip. Now in Barcelona, participating in TradeTech FX Europe. The euro advanced yesterday from NOK9.30 to NOK9.40. It is consolidating in a tight range today. The election results may have been a bit closer than expected, but the weight on the krone yesterday seemed to stem more from the unexpectedly soft inflation report.

Read More »
Page 112