Follow @dorgang

Tag Archive: South Africa

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-08-06

2018-08-06

EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-07-30

2018-07-30

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP. BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-07-02

2018-07-02

PBOC fixed USD/CNY at the highest level since December 14. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp to 5.25%. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov survived a second no-confidence vote this year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected but with sweeping new powers. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are reportedly in talks to help stabilize Bahrain.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-26

2018-06-26

EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked. EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend. Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-06-19

2018-06-19

EM FX was mixed on Friday but capped off a largely losing week. MYR, CLP, and CNY were the best performers over the last week, while ARS, TRY, and ZAR were the worst. We expect EM FX to continue weakening, but note that with very few fundamental drivers this week, we may see some consolidation near-term.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-12

2018-06-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-05

2018-06-05

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

Read More »

Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-06-01

2018-06-01

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-05-22

2018-05-22

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-05-14

2018-05-14

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

Read More »

Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

2018-05-08

2018-05-08

EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-03-20

2018-03-20

EM ended Friday under renewed selling pressures, and capped off a mostly softer week. COP, THB, and TWD were the best performers last week, while TRY, RUB, and ZAR were the worst. Despite a widely expected 25 bp hike, this week’s FOMC meeting still has potential to weigh on EM.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-03-19

2018-03-19

Hong Kong may impose a tax on unsold apartments as an effort to increase supply and cool off the housing market. Bank of Israel’s MPC had a split vote last month for the first time in three years. South Africa President Ramaphosa said the ANC wants Julius Malema of the opposition EFF to rejoin the party. Former South Africa President Zuma will face trial on 16 criminal charges.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview Week Ahead

2018-03-12

2018-03-12

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-03-05

2018-03-05

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a largely softer week. Best performers last week for MYR and TWD while the worst were ZAR and ARS. US stocks clawed back early losses and ended the week on a firmer note but we think further market turbulence is likely.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-03-03

2018-03-03

China plans to change its constitution to eliminate term limits for President Xi Jinping. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo was nominated by President Widodo to be the next Governor. Bank of Korea Governor Lee was reappointed by President Moon for a second term. Hungary ruling party candidate lost the mayoral vote in Hodmezovasarhely. S&P upgraded Russia to BBB- with stable outlook.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-26

2018-02-26

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note and capped off a soft week overall. Best performers last week were ZAR, CLP, and PHP while the worst were TRY, ARS, and IDR. Fed Chief Powell’s testimony to Congress will likely draw market attention back to Fed policy.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-19

2018-02-19

EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-02-17

2018-02-17

The National Stock Exchange of India will end all licensing agreements and stop offering live prices overseas. Philippine central bank cut reserve requirements for commercial banks. Egypt cut rates for the first time since 2015. Israeli police recommended that Prime Minister Netanyahu be charged. South Africa President Zuma resigned before a no confidence vote was held.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead, February 12

2018-02-12

2018-02-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, as risk assets recovered a bit from broad-based selling pressures. Best EM performers on the week were ZAR, PHP, and CNY while the worst were COP, RUB, and ARS. Besides the risk-off impulses still reverberating through global markets, we think lower commodity prices are another headwind on EM.

Read More »