Tag Archive: silver

The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices

Gold and silver are the most complicated assets to price. Stocks, currencies, commodities mostly depend on their fundamental data, supply and demand. Gold and silver, however, are priced indirectly.

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The Fed Will Remain Gold’s Strongest Supporter For Years

In the early 1980s the Fed stopped the wage-price spiral and destroyed the gold price. Today main-stream economists have discovered that rising company profits compared to stagnating wages could an issue for the U.S. economy. For us this implies that the ultimate Fed goal will be to increase wages and inflation. Consequently the Fed has become the biggest supporter of gold and silver prices.

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

2013-11-23

by George Dorgan

2013-11-23

FX Price Movements November 11 to November 15 2013

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States edged up to 54.3 (vs. 52.3 expected), a 9-month high after the …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 11 to November 15

2013-11-16

by George Dorgan

2013-11-16

Fundamentals with highest importance: In Janet Yellen’s hearing at the Senate Banking Commission, the future Fed chair emphasized the need to provide support to the economic recovery and to overcome low inflation. Her speech supported equities, gold and US Treasuries. GDP in the Euro zone rose by 0.1% QoQ in line with expectations, but less …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

2013-11-09

by George Dorgan

2013-11-09

November 4 to November 8 Weekly FX Rates

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than imports. GDP was up 2.8%, but not driven by consumption, it was mostly helped by …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week October 28 to November 3

2013-11-02

by George Dorgan

2013-11-02

This week had a focus on – due to the government shut-down – the long awaited U.S. data: Highest importance: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for October came in at 56.4, higher than the 55 expected. The value for new orders and for production remained above 60 despite the government shutdown. The value …

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Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

2013-10-27

by George Dorgan

2013-10-27

House Prices against income China US Britain

Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings. Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

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Week October 14 to 18, A Close Look at China’s Fundamental Data

2013-10-21

by George Dorgan

2013-10-21

Weekly Overview of FX Rates Movements The week was driven by the following factors: Solid Chinese economic data including a 7.8% rise in GDP. The end of the debt ceiling debate, at least for now. The expectation by the Fed member Evans that the government shutdown has delayed Fed tapering. San Francisco Fed’s Williams …

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Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week October 7 to Oct. 12

2013-10-13

by George Dorgan

2013-10-13

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) . Weekly Overview Hopes on a compromise between Obama and republicans on the U.S. debt ceiling and high U.S. initial unemployment claims sustained …

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Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week September 30 to October 4

2013-10-06

by George Dorgan

2013-10-06

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) . The clear winner of the week was the Aussie, supported by a positive PMI and positive news from the RBA. In the previous …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 23 to September 27

2013-09-29

by George Dorgan

2013-09-29

Weekly FX Price Movements September 23-27

Weekly summary of fundamental news on FX with a focus on CHF and gold price movements. Weekly price movements The U.S. budget discussion and rather bad U.S. fundamental data made JPY and CHF the winners of the week. After weeks of improvements, the currencies of the Emerging Markets and carry trade currencies, like NZD, AUD …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 16 to September 20

2013-09-22

by George Dorgan

2013-09-22

Weekly summary of fundamental news with a focus on CHF and gold price movements. Friday, September 20:The St. Louis Fed president James Bullard explained that the Fed was close to tapering 10 bln. $ and that markets overreacted after the FOMC with their strong performance. As a consequence the S&P500 inched down by 0.6% while …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 9 to Sept. 13

2013-09-15

by George Dorgan

2013-09-15

The weekly summary of global fundamental news with focus on CHF and gold price movements. Friday, September 13:The leading news came from U.S. retail sales and the Michigan consumer sentiment. Retail sales were up +0.2% instead of 0.5% expected, sales excluding autos and gas +0.1% (vs +0.3% exp.) The Michigan consumer sentiment disappointed at 76.8 …

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The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

2013-06-09

by George Dorgan

2013-06-09

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal

Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

by George Dorgan

2012-10-11

As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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