Tag Archive: newslettersent

Swiss central bank can cut rates further if needed, says bank president Jordan

2016-10-11

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2016-10-11

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
The Swiss National Bank can cut interest rates further into negative territory if needed, President Thomas Jordan said. “We have still some room to go further if necessary,” Jordan said Saturday in an interview in Washington with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. Jordan, who is attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, noted that the bank has already pushed rates quite far.

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Australian property bubble on a scale like no other

2016-10-11

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2016-10-11

Australian House Miden Multiples
Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included: The record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction. The associated boom in mining investment and current reversal. Record low bond yields. The boom in housing construction. Specifically apartments, that was spurred...

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Gold Sector Correction – Where Do Things Stand?

2016-10-11

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2016-10-11

gold bullion
When we last discussed the gold sector correction (which had only just begun at the time), we mentioned we would update sentiment and positioning data on occasion. For a while, not much changed in these indicators, but as one would expect, last week’s sharp sell-off did in fact move the needle a bit.

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Great Graphic: Euro is Approaching Year-Long Uptrend

2016-10-11

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2016-10-11

The year-long euro uptrend comes in near $1.1035, just below the August lows. The technical are fragile, but the euro is below its lower Bollinger Band. The fundamental driver seems to be the backing up of US rates, and widening premium over Germany.

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Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

A couple of weeks ago an article appeared on Bitcoin Magazine entitled ‘Some economists really hate bitcoin’. I read it with a sigh of nostalgia. As someone who has been writing about gold for a few years, I am used to reading similar criticisms as those bitcoin receives from mainstream economists, about gold.

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Partial Silver Crash

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price. This week a partial silver crash, reason the Non-Manufacturing ISM?

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USA 2017-2020: An Ungovernable Nation?

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

The U.S. needs to overthrow a corrupt, self-serving elite. Regardless of who wins the presidency, a much larger question looms: will the U.S. be ungovernable 2017-2020? There are multiple sources of the question.

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Swiss nominal and minimum wages increase by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

Changes in Swiss Nominal and Minimum Wages
The social partners signing the collective labour agreements (CLA) have agreed a nominal rise in real wages estimated at 0.4% for 2016, of which 0.2% is to be awarded collectively and 0.2% at individual level. Minimum wages were increased by 0.7%. The graph shows nominal wages since 1993.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

Despite the weaker than expected US jobs report, the dollar remains firm and EM is ending the week on a soft note. The main culprit was higher US rates, with the 2-year yield moving up to 0.85% and is the highest since early June. Concerns about Brexit impact and as well the health of European banks remain ongoing and could weigh on risk sentiment this coming week. Lastly, oil may come under more pressure after Russia said it sees no deal with...

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: It’s Not about the Data

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

High frequency economic reports will be not be among the key drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead.The light schedule, consisting mostly of industrial production in Europe, inflation for Scandinavia, and US retail sales, will have minimal impact on rate expectations.

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Great Graphic: US-German 2-Yr Differential and the Euro

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction.

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Do our money managers really believe this will end well?

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

An economic bubble is essentially an economic activity that cannot sustain itself without a continuous influx of new money and credit to bid away real resources from self-funding endeavors. Financial bubbles are obviously closely related as financial...

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Deutsche Bank CEO Returns Home Empty-Handed After Failing To Reach ‘Deal’ With DOJ: Bild

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week - from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investors - Germany's Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department.

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Swiss Franc Net Shorts Getting Reduced

2016-10-08

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2016-10-08

Last week SNB Q3 window cleaning that led to a big CHF net short position. This week this changed again. Both longs and shorts on CHF increased, but the net short position fell.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-10-08

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2016-10-08

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+5.3%), Czech Republic (+4.4%), and Hungary (+3.0%) have outperformed this week, while Peru (-3.3%), UAE (-2.2%), and South Africa (-1.4%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI E...

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British Pounding

2016-10-08

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2016-10-08

Flash-Crashed. Earlier this morning the British Pound suddenly found itself on the receiving end of a 6% flash crash during Asian trading hours. Some of the losses have been recouped since then, but that will be of little consolation to anyone who may have been long the GBP overnight.

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FX Weekly Review, October 03-07: Dollar Profits on Strong ISM Index

2016-10-08

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2016-10-08

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
The Franc index lost considerably in the last week, in particularly in comparison to the dollar index. Reason was the exceptionally strong U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

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FX Daily, October 07: Sterling Stabilizes After Harrowing Drop, Now Jobs

2016-10-07

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2016-10-07

FX Performance, September 7, 2016
Sterling again steals the limelight. In early Asia, sterling inexplicably dropped nearly eight cents in minutes (to ~$1840), and on some platforms, may have traded below $1.1380. It almost immediately rebounded but has not resurfaced above $1.2480.

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