Tag Archive: newslettersent

The Deep State’s Dominant Narratives and Authority Are Crumbling

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

boris and natasha
This is why the Deep State is fracturing: its narratives no longer align with the evidence. As this chart from Google Trends illustrates, interest in the Deep State has increased dramatically in 2017. The term/topic has clearly moved from the specialist realm to the mainstream. I've been writing about the Deep State, and specifically, the fractures in the Deep State, for years.

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All In The Curves

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Notable events in the 2003 deflation scare
If the mainstream is confused about exactly what rate hikes mean, then they are not alone. We know very well what they are supposed to, but the theoretical standards and assumptions of orthodox understanding haven’t worked out too well and for a very long time now. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury is today yielding less than it did when the FOMC announced their second rate hike in December.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool. Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+. Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to negative. China has temporarily suspended beef imports from Brazil.

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Gold ETFs or Physical Gold? Dangers In Exchange Traded Funds

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

Considering the public’s waning trust in the banking system, many investors find themselves wondering how GLD stacks up to owning the real thing. When you look at both assets more closely, it’s clear that gold ETFs and gold bullion are very different investments.

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TIC Analysis of Selling

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It was supposed to be a big deal, the kind of rebuke reserved for disreputable leaders of...

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Durable Goods After Leap Year

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

Durable Goods New Orders, NSA 1993-2017
New orders for durable goods (not including transportation orders) were up 1% year-over-year in February. That is less than the (revised) 4.4% growth in January, but as with all comparisons of February 2017 to February 2016 there will be some uncertainty surrounding the comparison to the leap year version.

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March to Default

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

“May you live in interesting times,” says the ancient Chinese curse. No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. Hardly a day goes by that we’re not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards vulgarity. Just this week, for instance, U.S. Representative Maxine Waters tweeted, “Get ready for impeachment.”

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SNB Spent $68 Billion On Currency Manipulation In 2016

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

SNB Intervention, 2010 - 2017
While Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with China for manipulating its currency, he appears to have recently figured out that over the past 2 years Beijing has been spending hundreds of billions in dollar to strengthen, not weaken, the Yuan and to halt the ~$1 trillion in capital flight from China.

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FX Daily, March 24: Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

The US dollar has been stabilizing over the past couple of sessions. This broad stability of the dollar is impressive because of the questions of the prospects of US President Trump's economic agenda. Expectations for tax reform and infrastructure spending have bolstered investor confidence and helped boost equity prices despite what appears to be stretched valuation.

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The real reason Swiss drugs are so expensive

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

Expensive-Swiss-drugs
In Switzerland, a 16-pack of 500mg Dafalgan Odis (Paracetamol) costs CHF 8.60. A comparable French product, Doliprane, costs 1.12 euros for a box of 12 tablets the same size. 12 tablets of 500 mg of Algifor (Ibuprofen) costs CHF 9.90 compared to 2.50 euros for a similar box of Advil in France.

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Results of the new pensions statistics 2015: Large differences between genders and age groups in pillar 2 and 3a old-age benefits

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

In 2015 approximately 33,000 persons obtained an old-age pension for the first time from the occupational pension fund (2nd pillar), while some 41,000 persons received a lump-sum withdrawal from their 2nd pillar retirement savings. Men received far higher benefits from the 2nd pillar than women. Pensions obtained before the legal retirement age were on average the highest.

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Vollgeld? Geht schon!

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

Swiss National Bank
Der Bundesrat, Economiesuisse und die die Schweizerische Nationalbank haben die Vollgeldinitiative salopp (oder populistisch?) als Hochrisikoexperiment zur Ablehnung empfohlen. In ihrer Überheblichkeit gehen sie davon aus, dass dies auch so geschehen wird. Dazu brauche es nicht einmal einen Gegenvorschlag. Sie haben die Rechnung damit möglicherweise ohne den Schweizer Wirt gemacht.

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2016 Annual Report of the Swiss National Bank

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

The Swiss National Bank carried out foreign exchange interventions totaling 67.1B Swiss francs in 2016 in order to counter "an undesired tightening of monetary conditions," the central bank disclosed in its annual report. That was down from 86.1B francs in 2015, when the SNB intervened heavily at the start of the year following its decision to remove a cap on the franc's value against the euro.

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The Swiss Franc: The World’s Most Perplexing Currency?

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

Big Mac Index
Swiss policymakers consider their domestic currency (the franc, or CHF) to be significantly overvalued. Measures taken by the Swiss National Bank seem to corroborate this stance, holding its nominal overnight rates well into negative territory. Considering where the Fed and ECB are in their policy cycles and where the SNB is in its cycle, the USD and EUR are likely to appreciate against the CHF.

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FX Daily, March 23: Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies. The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. The down draft in the dollar appears part of a larger development in the capital markets that has also seen the US 10-year yield slide 25 bp in less than two weeks. The two-year yield is off 17 bp.

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Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

PBOC RMB Liquidity Management 2014-2017
China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never be interpreted as standalone procedures related solely to some unknown policy stance. That is particularly true given that we know what their stance is and has been – neutral.

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Economics Through The Economics of Oil

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

The last time oil inventory grew at anywhere close to this pace was during each of the last two selloffs, the first in late 2014/early 2015 and the second following about a year after. Those events were relatively easy to explain in terms of both price and fundamentals, though the mainstream managed to screw it up anyway (“supply glut”).

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New calculation of SNB exchange rate indices

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

Swiss National bank bern
Change to a more comprehensive and up-to-date methodology. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting the Swiss franc exchange rate indices it calculates and publishes on a new footing. The adjustment allows the Swiss economy’s competitive and trading relationships to be replicated in a more comprehensive and up-to-date way. The new indices, too, show that the Swiss franc is significantly overvalued.

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Status of US Pivot To Asia

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

AsiaPivot
Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

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