Tag Archive: newsletter

US stamps policy on the Universal Postal Union

2019-09-27

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2019-09-27

I think it’s fair to say many people may not have heard of the Universal Postal Union (UPU). Its unassuming headquarters sits peacefully in a leafy suburb of Bern. It is the only United Nations agency to grace Switzerland’s capital with a presence. In fact, the UPU is older than the UN itself. Founded in 1874, its mandate is to regulate the booming new (in the 19th century) international communication of letters and parcels.

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Dollar Firm Despite Rising US Political Uncertainty

2019-09-27

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2019-09-27

The dollar continues to benefit despite US political uncertainty President Trump claimed to be getting “closer and closer” to a trade deal with China; we are very skeptical. There is a lot of US data to be reported and a heavy slate of Fed speakers today.

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Here’s How We Are Silenced by Big Tech

2019-09-27

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2019-09-27

This is how they silence us: your content has been secretly flagged as being "unsafe," i.e. "guilty of anti-Soviet thoughts;" poof, you're gone. Big Tech claims it isn't silencing skeptics, dissenters and critics of the status quo, but it is silencing us. Here's how it's done. Let's start with Twitter.

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Gold At 3 Week High As Stocks and Dollar Fall On Trump’s Hard Line Stance Against Iran and China

2019-09-27

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2019-09-27

Best performing currencies in 2019
◆ Gold has edged higher to reach three week highs at $1,535/oz today after Trump took a hard-line stance on China and Iran during his U.N. speech. ◆ Stocks fell in the U.S. yesterday and today in Europe on increasing political turmoil in the U.S. and the UK; Concerns about the global economy and the outlook for stocks is enhancing gold’s safe haven appeal.

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USD/CHF consolidates gains above 0.9900, limited by 0.9950

2019-09-27

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2019-09-27

USD/CHF between two key levels
US Dollar rises versus Swiss Franc for the second-day in-a-row. USD/CHF testing key 200-day simple moving average and 0.9950. The USD/CHF rose on Thursday, holding firm above 0.9900. The pair peaked on European hours at 0.9947 and then pulled back finding support at 0.9900. The bounced back to the upside unable to challenge daily highs and is trading at 0.9930.

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FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday's disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is that it is a black box: is difficult to verify and lends itself to misuse as a catch-all explanation.  Nevertheless, the rise in US equities yesterday helped...

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Number of people with debt problems rises in Switzerland

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

The number of people with debts in default continues to rise in Switzerland. At the end of July 2019, 561,000 people, 6.5% of the population, were unable to service their debts according to the price comparison website comparis.ch. The figures, based on data from the credit analysis company CRIF include those who have failed to make repayments and are being pursued by creditors or have declared bankruptcy.

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The SNB Is a Passive Clearing House Rather Than an Active Currency Manipulator

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

This post is a long excursion to make two simple points: The SNB is IMHO just acting in a passive way as a clearing house for (massive) capital inflows. It is not actively managing the exchange rate. A rate of increase of sight deposits of 2.5bn per week (100bn p.a.) is not extraordinary considering the need to recycle a current account surplus of 80bn p.a.

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Waiting on the Calvary

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

WTO Global Trade, 2007-2019
Engaged in one of those protectionist trade spats people have been talking about, the flow of goods between South Korea and Japan has been choked off. The specific national reasons for the dispute are immaterial. As trade falls off everywhere, countries are increasingly looking to protect their own. Nothing new, this is a feature of when prolonged stagnation turns to outright contraction.

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Money Markets: Sizing Up the Cavalry

2019-09-26

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2019-09-26

Money Markets Equivalents, 2017-2019
There’s been an unusual level of honesty coming out of Liberty Street of late. Not total honesty but certainly more than the usual nothing denials and dismissals. If you don’t immediately recognize the reference, that’s the street in NYC where FRBNY and its Open Market Desk resides. What is supposed to be the moneyed centered of the universe. After all, as Ben Bernanke famously threatened in November 2002, that’s the printing press.

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Return

2019-09-25

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2019-09-25

Markets have moved into risk-off mode from a confluence of events emanating from the US. Speaker of the House Pelosi formally launched a formal impeachment inquiry; DOJ inserted itself into Trump’s fight with New York state. Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday was noteworthy for its belligerence.

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FX Daily, September 25: Risk Appetite Stymied: Dollar Recovers while Stocks Slide

2019-09-25

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2019-09-25

Overview:  Global equities and fixed income reacted to the large moves yesterday in the US when the 10-year note yield fell eight basis points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.85%.  Investors have focused on three separate developments and two of which came from President Trump's speech at the UN.  He dismissed the likelihood of a short-term trade deal with China and was critical of the large social media platforms.

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Financial Storm Clouds Gather

2019-09-25

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2019-09-25

Concentration of Stock Ownership by Wealth Bracket
The price of this "solution"--the undermining of the financial system--will eventually be paid in full. The financial storm clouds are gathering, and no, I'm not talking about impeachment or the Fed and repo troubles--I'm talking about much more serious structural issues, issues that cannot possibly be fixed within the existing financial system.

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No rise is health premiums expected in 10 Swiss cantons in 2020

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

Every year, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) gives projections of compulsory health insurance premiums for the coming year. After years of rising premiums, many will be relieved by the small projected increases for 2020. Across all of Switzerland, the average premium is expected to rise 0.2% to CHF 315.40 a month.

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CHF: Possible reversal? – Deutsche Bank

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

Deutsche bank analysts suggest that at current spot levels, risk-reward favours longs in EUR/CHF. “While Brexit and trade war outcomes look like coin tosses, the impact is likely to be asymmetric as the SNB caps the left tail. While a relief rally would be fully accommodated, they would likely intervene heavily and cut the policy rate in the event of no deal.”

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FX Daily, September 24: UK Supreme Court Deals another Defeat to Johnson

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

Overview: A fragile calm hangs over the capital markets today.  Equities in Asia Pacific were narrowly mixed.  Japan, China, and HK advanced. India saw some profit-taking after a two-day surge in response to the unexpected corporate tax cuts but recovered in late dealings. European shares are recovering after posting its largest loss in a month yesterday (-0.8%). US shares are trading firmer in Europe.

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Treasury Bond Backwardation, Report 22 Sep

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

Repo Rate Graph, 2014-2019
Something happened in the credit market this week. A Barron’s article about it began: “There have been disruptions in the plumbing of U.S. markets this week. While the process of fixing them was bumpy, it was more of a technical mishap than a cause for investor concern.” Keep Calm and Carry On. So, before they tell us what happened, they tell us it’s just plumbing, it’s been fixed, and that we should not be concerned.

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Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

GBP/JPY, March-September 2019
We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530).  At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen.  One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise in US yields. 

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No Longer Hanging In, Europe May Have (Been) Broken Down

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

Central Bank Failure, 1999-2017
Mario Draghi can thank Jay Powell at his retirement party. The latter being so inept as to allow federal funds, of all things, to take hold of global financial attention, everyone quickly shifted and forgot what a mess the ECB’s QE restart had been. But it’s not really one or the other, is it? Once it actually finishes, the takeaway from all of September should be the world’s two most important central banks each botching their...

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More Than A Decade Too Late: FRBNY Now Wants To Know, Where Were The Dealers?

2019-09-24

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2019-09-24

US Money Markets: Equivalent Rates, 2008-2009
I’ve said it all along; focusing in on bank reserves would leave you dazed and confused. It’s just not how the system works. After all, as I pointed out again not long ago, “our” glorious central bank had the audacity to claim that there were “abundant” reserves during the worst financial panic in four generations. “Somehow” despite that, it was a Global Financial Crisis that lived up to its name – global.

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