Tag Archive: newsletter

Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-06-23

by

2020-06-23

There are some indexing events this week that could add to market volatility; the IMF will release updated global growth forecasts Wednesday. The regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; Fed speaking engagements are somewhat limited this week.

Read More »

Defaults Are Coming, Market Report, 22 June

2020-06-23

by

2020-06-23

Silver Basis and Co-basis and the Dollar Price
We are reading now about possible regulations for air travel. In brief: passengers might be forced to spend hours at the airport. Authorities will perform medical checks, including possibly needles to draw blood, no lounges, no food or drink on board the plane, masks required at all times, and even denied the use of a bathroom except by special permission.

Read More »

Some Conservatives Want Americans to Abandon Classical Liberalism. Don’t Listen to Them.

2020-06-23

by

2020-06-23

Donald Trump's economic populism, and his break with the established post-war conservative movement, has created an opening for new types of conservatism. Among these is the anti-market wing of the movement characterized by a renewed enthusiasm for trade controls, more spending on welfare programs, and more government regulation in the everyday lives of ordinary Americans.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 22: Dollar Begins Week on Back Foot

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

Overview: Investors begin the new week, perhaps slowed a bit by the weekend developments and the growth of new infections. Equities are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance, though India bucked the regional trend and gained 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recovering from an early dip to four-day lows. US shares are trading higher after the S&P 500 closed below 3100 ahead of the weekend after reaching 3155.

Read More »

Coronavirus: Swiss authorities not open enough in early weeks, says medical expert

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

The Swiss authorities should have been more open about what they did and didn’t know about the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the early stages, according to Bertrand Kiefer, doctor, ethicist and editor of the Swiss Medical Review.

Read More »

Swiss National Bank forecasts deflation until 2022

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

On 18 June 2020, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said it would maintain its negative rate of interest (-0.75%) and remains willing to intervene more strongly in the foreign exchange market.

Read More »

For the Rich to Keep Getting Richer, We Have to Sacrifice Everything Else

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

The Fruit of Financialization
They're hoping the endless circuses and trails of bread crumbs will forever distract us from their plunder and the inequalities built into America's financial system.. The primary story of the past 20 years is the already-rich have gotten much richer, with destabilizing economic, social and political consequences. 

Read More »

WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

Despite a year of tumult on Wall Street and Main Street, the banking system seems to be holding up remarkably well… for now. Whereas previous financial crises were marked by a surge in bank failures, hardly any have gone under so far in 2020. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reports that only 1% of FDIC-insured banks are on the “problem list” for financial weakness.

Read More »

Does the Free Market Corrupt People?

2020-06-22

by

2020-06-22

The political theorist Michael J. Sandel is a popular teacher at Harvard, and his lectures circulate widely on YouTube and elsewhere. He attracted attention as a serious political theorist with his critical work on John Rawls, Liberalism and the Limits of Justice (1982). As most readers will know, I’m no fan of Rawls, and it’s easy to find poor arguments in his A Theory of Justice. But Sandel totally misunderstands him, and his attack on Rawls...

Read More »

Coronavirus: cheap drug substantially cuts severe case death risk, according to large UK trial

2020-06-21

by

2020-06-21

A trial at Oxford University suggests an existing low cost drug can cut the risk of death from Covid-19 substantially. Tests involving 6,000 hospitalised Covid-19 patients suggest the drug can cut the risk of death for those on ventilators from 40% to 28%. For patients needing oxygen the risk of death could be cut from 25% to 20%.

Read More »

Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering

2020-06-21

by

2020-06-21

Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we're hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet. The story we're told about how our "capitalist" economy works is outdated. The story goes like this: companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production. These profits are income streams for investors, who buy companies' stocks based on these profits. As profits rise, so do...

Read More »

The War On Cash – COVID Edition Part II

2020-06-21

by

2020-06-21

The digital “toll” It doesn’t require too dark an imagination to realize the gravity of the concerns over the digital yuan. China is a true pioneer when it comes surveillance, censorship and political oppression and the digital age has given an incredibly efficient and effective arsenal to the state. Adding money to that toolkit was a move that was planned for many years and it is abundantly clear how useful a tool it can be for any totalitarian...

Read More »

Coronavirus: the rising number of mild cases with symptoms lasting months

2020-06-20

by

2020-06-20

Those with mild Covid-19 symptoms are supposed to recover after two weeks. However, a rising number of relatively young people with mild cases report symptoms months later. Johns Hopkins Medicine says that those with mild cases of COVID-19 appear to recover within one to two weeks. For severe cases, recovery may take six weeks or more.

Read More »

The Smallness of the Most Gigantic

2020-06-20

by

2020-06-20

US Retail Sales, Stagnation 1992-2020
These numbers do seem epic, don’t they? It’s hard to ignore when you have the greatest percentage increase in the history of a major economic account. Just writing that sentence it’s difficult to deny the power of those words. Which is precisely the point: we already know ahead of time how the biggest economic holes in history are going to produce the biggest positives coming out of them.

Read More »

Why the European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail

2020-06-20

by

2020-06-20

The €750 billion stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. However, we must be cautious. Why? Many would argue that a swift and decisive response to the crisis with an injection of liquidity that avoids a financial collapse and a strong fiscal impulse that cements the recovery are overwhelmingly positive measures.

Read More »

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos

2020-06-19

by

2020-06-19

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast, June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic and the measures implemented to contain it have led to a severe downturn in economic activity and a decline in inflation both in Switzerland and abroad. The SNB’s expansionary monetary policy remains necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland.

Read More »

Weekly View – Reality check

2020-06-19

by

2020-06-19

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

Read More »

Coronavirus: national lockdown not part of Switzerland’s second wave response plan

2020-06-19

by

2020-06-19

Switzerland’s federal government is against imposing nationwide restrictions to slow the spread of a second wave on infections, according to the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper. The federal government plan, which is under development, is more regional than the response to the first wave of infections and focuses decision making power at the cantonal level, reported the newspaper.

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020

2020-06-19

by

2020-06-19

TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does the available economic data.

Read More »

The Fed’s Grand Bargain Has Finally Imploded

2020-06-19

by

2020-06-19

The Fed has backed itself not into a corner but to the edge of a precipice. Though the Federal Reserve never stated its Grand Bargain explicitly, their actions have spoken louder than their predictably self-serving, obfuscatory public pronouncements. Here's the Grand Bargain they offered institutional investors and speculators alike.

Read More »