Tag Archive: newsletter

Could Swiss ski resorts face Covid-19 lawsuits?

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

As the events and decisions surrounding the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus become clearer, fingers are being pointed. A mass lawsuit targeting events in the Austrian resort of Ischgl is looming, according to Bloomberg. Could similar legal action spread to Swiss resorts?

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Risk assets came under pressure last week as the virus news stream worsened. It’s clear that large parts of the US will be forced to delay reopening until their virus numbers improve. Markets had gotten too bullish on the US recovery story and so this reality check soured sentiment. This is a very important week for US data, and we think risk sentiment will remain under pressure ahead of what we think will be a likely downside surprise in the US...

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Forget the V, W or L Recovery: Focus on N-P-B

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Depression Dominoes Fall
The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B.

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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.

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As the Fed Pumps, the Stock Market Is Increasingly the Only Game in Town

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

While the economic storm caused by COVID-19 has seemed to wane (temporarily?), the stock market can’t seem to go but one direction—up. Graham and Dodd’s meaty 700-page Security Analysis has soared to number 7695 on the Amazon best-seller list. According to Warren Buffett, the book is A road map for investing that I have now been following for 57 years.

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Switzerland’s latest easing of Covid measures allows large political protests, provided masks worn

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

On 19 June 2020, Switzerland’s extraordinary state in relation to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic ended. This was accompanied by further easing of restrictions aimed at reducing the spread of the virus. Hand washing, maintaining social distance and mask wearing are the three golden rules that remain, according to Swiss president Simonetta Sommaruga.

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SwissCovid app now available for download

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

On 25 June 2020, Switzerland’s contact tracing app, known as SwissCovid, became available for download. Created by a group of specialists at EPFL led by Marcel Salathé, a professor of digital epidemiology, the app allows chains of infection to be traced by informing people if they have been in contact with anyone infected. Countries, like South Korea, that have done a good job of this have been able to quickly isolate infected people and halt the...

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Wait A Minute, What’s This Inversion?

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

Eurodollar Futures Curve, 2018-2024
Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board.And yet, all the way back in the middle of June 2018 the eurodollar curve started to say, hold on a minute.

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Why Central Banks Are a Threat to Our Savings

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

US Personal Savings Rate vs YoY % CHNG US AMS
The US personal savings rate jumped to 33 percent in April from 12.7 percent in March and 8 percent in April last year. An increase in savings is regarded by popular economics as less expenditure on consumption. Since consumption expenditure is considered as the main driving force of the economy, obviously a rebound in savings, which implies less consumption, cannot be good for economic activity, so it is held. Saving and wealth—what is the...

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The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that Stephanie Kelton—economics professor at Stony Brook and advisor to the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign—has written a book on modern monetary theory (MMT) that is very readable and will strike many readers as persuasive and clever.

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Hands-off regulation of sustainable finance draws mixed response

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

Extra rules will only be imposed on the sustainable finance sector if banks fail to properly police themselves, says the Swiss government. The hands-off regulatory approach to ethical investing has been welcomed by financial players, but criticised by NGOs. Unveiling a report on sustainable finance on Friday, Finance Minister Ueli Maurer said legislators would stay in the background as a last resort measure.

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Swiss gold industry oversight too weak, say auditors

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

The Swiss gold refining industry has once again come under scrutiny with a report that criticises the lack of control over imports of the precious metal. The Federal Audit Office says it is too easy for illegal imports to enter the country and that sanctions are inadequate.

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Recent Trade Developments Suggest Some Caution Ahead Warranted

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

WTO Trade Outlook, 2005-2021
There’s never a good time for a trade war. Yet here we are on the cusp of one between the US and the EU over unfair aircraft subsidies and comes at a time when renewed COVID-19 outbreaks are making the global economic outlook even cloudier. These developments suggest some caution ahead is warranted for risk assets like EM and equities.

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Not COVID-19, Watch For The Second Wave of GFC2

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

Federal Reserve SLOOS, 1990-2020
I guess in some ways it’s a race against the clock. What the optimists are really saying is the equivalent of the old eighties neo-Keynesian notion of filling in the troughs. That’s what government spending and monetary “stimulus” intend to accomplish, to limit the downside in a bid to buy time. Time for what? The economy to heal on its own.

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“The illusions of Keynesianism create a morally corrupt society” – Part II

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

Claudio Grass (CG): Overall, apart from the obvious economic consequences of the crisis, do you also see geopolitical and social ones, on a wider scale? Given all these “moving parts”, from the upcoming US election and internal frictions in the EU to the Hong Kong tensions and the rising public discontent in Latin America, where do expect the chips to fall once this is over? 

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FX Daily, June 26: Investors Wrestle with Notion that More Covid Cases mean More Stimulus

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

It may be that a new surge in virus cases will elicit more policy support from officials, but the immediate focus may be on the economic disruption. The number of US cases is reaching records, and at least a couple of states are stopping their re-opening efforts. Several other countries, including parts of Australia, Japan, and Germany, are wrestling with the same thing, And some emerging markets, like Brazil and Mexico, have not experienced a lull.

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Banks in Switzerland 2019

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

Key Figures for 2019
The Swiss National Bank has today published its report Banks in Switzerland 2019 and the corresponding data for its annual banking statistics. The most important figures are summarised below.

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Audit office denies ‘mass phenomenon’ of Covid-19 credit abuse

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

An interim report on government pay-outs to businesses during the Covid-19 crisis has revealed that there is suspected abuse in less than 1% of cases. Тhe Federal Audit Office investigated some 94,000 coronavirus loans amounting to CHF11.4 billion ($12 billion). It found indications of abuse in about 400 cases, which amounts to about CHF88 million in guarantees.

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Job postings fall by 27 percent due to pandemic

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

New job offers have dropped by over a quarter in Switzerland due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with hotel, restaurant, and personal services sectors worst hit. Between April and June, job postings went down by 27%, the human resources firm Adecco Switzerland reported on Tuesday.

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