Tag Archive: newsletter

What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

New Home Sales Population Adjusted, 1987-2019
In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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FX Daily, July 24: Poor PMI Weighs on Euro Ahead of ECB

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 24
Overview:  Disappointing flash PMI pushed an already offered euro lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. European bonds rallied and equities, amid a rash of earnings, is trying to extend the advance for a fourth consecutive session.  Italian and Spanish 10-year benchmark yields are off four-six basis points, while core bond yields are off two-three basis points.

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Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates remain docile despite yesterday’s UK political developments

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Movement for the Pound to Swiss Franc pair limited. Pound to Swiss franc exchange rates have remained relatively rangebound this week, despite yesterday’s political developments inside the UK. Whilst the GBP/CHF pair is historically less volatile than GBP/EUR for an example, a range of only two cents movement over the past month is testament to the current market uncertainty.

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DM credit caught between opposing forces

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EURO AND US IG CREDIT SPREADS
Despite the impressive year-to-date performance of corporate credit, we remain prudent about prospects in the remainder of 2019.Corporate bonds have posted stellar total returns year to date, thanks to the positive combination of lower sovereign yields and tighter credit spreads.

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Switzerland has the Highest Underemployment Rate in Europe

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Swiss Women Work Time
2018, 7% of Switzerland's workforce claimed they would like to work more. Women are the most affected. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) figures publsihed on Tuesday, Switzerland’s labour pool has 830,000 people. This includes 356,000 underemployed individuals, 231,000 unemployed and 243,000 people who are looking for work but not available to start immediately.

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World growth forecast revised down

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

World Real GDP Growth, 1985-2019
Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast.The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy.

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FX Daily, July 23: Debt Deal Help Lifts the Dollar

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

The gains in US equities and the apparent US budget agreement has underpinned equities today and the US dollar. Asia Pacific equities recouped yesterday's losses, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is posting gains for the third consecutive session, helped by some earning beats, to probe two-week highs. US shares are firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed with the Asia Pacific softer and European firmer.

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The Fake Economy, Report 21 Jul

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Gold and Silver Price
Folks in the liberty movement often say that the economy is fake. But this does not persuade anyone. It’s just preaching to the choir! We hope that this series on GDP provides more effective ammunition to argue with the Left-Right-Wall-Street-Main-Street-Capitalists-Socialists.

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Semaña grande for Sánchez

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Spain Generic Government 10Y Yield, 2015-2019
The interim Spanish prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, will aim to form a government this week. Outside the political noise, the Spanish economy continues to do well.April’s elections in Spain resulted in a fragmented parliament, making the formation of a government complicated.

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Swiss tourist chief warns against Europe-only strategy

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

The director of Switzerland’s tourism marketing company has dismissed criticism that the country is overrun by Asian tourists. Martin Nydegger said concerns by the local population about too many tourists should be taken seriously. But the perception of overtourism was mistaken and potentially damaging.

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Scientific Long-Term Study Confirms: Seasonality is the Best Investment Strategy!

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Excess Returns
A Pleasant Surprise. You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And yet, this is exactly what a recent comprehensive scientific study asserts – a study that probably considers a longer time span than most: it examines up to 217 years of market history!

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FX Daily, July 22: Greenback is Mostly Firmer to Start New Week, while the Euro is Pinned near $1.12

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

What promises to be an eventful two weeks has begun quietly. The ECB, Fed, BOJ, and BOE will meet over the next fortnight. The central banks of Turkey and Russia meet this week and are expected to cut rates. The UK will have a new Prime Minister.

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FX Weekly Preview: Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Three events that will capture the market's attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa.

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Hildebrand hatte SNB nicht verstanden: Sie muss zugunsten eigener Wirtschaft investieren

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Bilderberg, Gerzensee und „Franken-Rütli“ – das sind alles Geschwister im Geiste: undurchschaubar, informell, nicht greifbar, gegen aussen, eine Versammlung der Macht, mit dem Vorspuren von Entscheiden grösster wirtschaftlicher und politischer Tragweite.

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Our Ruling Elites Have No Idea How Much We Want to See Them All in Prison Jumpsuits

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Pretax income growth in the United States
Even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they're not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%. Let's posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Turning, a 4-generational cycle of 80 years that correlates rather neatly with the Great Crises of the past: 1781 (Revolutionary War, constitutional crisis); 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (World War II, global war).

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Switzerland could lose billions in global corporate tax reform push

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Switzerland stands to lose up to CHF10 billion ($10.2 billion) as a consequence of attempts by other countries to change how multinationals are taxed. Countries belonging to the G20 and OECD are pushing for changes in corporate taxation rules to capture a larger share of taxes of multinationals based in tax-friendly destinations like Switzerland.

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Rents have risen in Switzerland’s main cities, according to rental website

2019-07-21

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2019-07-21

The website homegate.ch has compiled data on rental prices in Zurich, Basel, Bern and Geneva over the last two years. The data shows how rents have risen in these cities and presents them on maps showing prices rises by suburb in each of these cities.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

2019-07-21

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2019-07-21

US High Yield Master 2000-2015
I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Globally Synchronized, After All

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

Retail Sales (ex Autos), NSA 1993-2019
For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered.

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Retirement age to rise for women in Switzerland

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

The Swiss government has been looking at measures to shore up the finances of Switzerland’s pension system for some time. The difference between the official retirement age for women (64) and men (65) is an obvious target.

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