Tag Archive: newsletter

US Money Supply Growth – Bouncing From a 12-Year Low

2019-10-16

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2019-10-16

US broad true money supply TMS-2, year-on-year growth w. 12-month moving average
True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in September. In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well. The main driver of the slowdown in money supply growth over the past year was the Fed’s decision to decrease its holdings of MBS and treasuries purchased in previous “QE” operations.

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Dollar Resilient as Cracks in Risk-On Appear

2019-10-16

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2019-10-16

Some cracks have appeared in the market’s risk-on sentiment. We continue to believe that recent developments take some pressure off the Fed to cut rates again this month. Our base case for a Brexit delay has been strengthened; UK reported weak labor market data. The situation is Turkey continues to develop negatively for asset prices; trade data out of China once again showed the impact of the trade war and the resulting global slowdown.

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FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2019: -2.0 percent YoY, -0,3 percent MoM

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2019
15.10.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and scrap. Compared with September 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.0%.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Pivots around 200-day SMA, near mid-0.9900s

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

USD/CHF daily chart, July-November 2019
Continued with its struggle to extend the momentum beyond 200-DMA. Bears eye a decisive break below the ascending trend-channel support. Bulls are likely to await a sustained strength above the key parity mark. The USD/CHF pair failed to capitalize on last week's attempted rebound from a support marked by the lower end of a two-month-old ascending trend-channel and met with some fresh supply on Monday.

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Unions urge probe on asbestos-linked deaths

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

Labour unions are demanding a probe of companies’ pre-1990 working conditions in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino, in connection with recent asbestos-linked deaths. They are targeting particularly Swiss Federal Railways and the Swiss accident insurance fund SUVA.

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Swiss upper house calls on executive to end marriage tax penalty

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

In Switzerland, some married couples pay more tax than unmarried ones, something referred to as the marriage tax penalty. The issue has been doing the rounds of the halls of Switzerland’s government for around 30 years. On 28 February 2016, a vote to change the current system was narrowly rejected by 50.8% of voters.

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Motte and Bailey Fallacy, Report 13 Oct

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

Gold and Silver Prices
This week, we will delve into something really abstract. Not like monetary economics, which is so simple even a caveman can do it. We refer to a clever rhetorical trick. It’s when someone makes a broad and important assertion, in very general terms. But when challenged, the assertion is switched for one that is entirely uncontroversial but also narrow and unimportant.

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FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.

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FX Weekly Preview: Same Three Drivers in the Week Ahead but Changing Tones

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Three themes have dominated the investment climate:  US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces.  None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors.  However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little. 

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Zurich homes market in highly overvalued territory, says UBS

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Every quarter UBS, a bank, publishes its real estate bubble index, a report that covers real estate prices in 24 cities around the world. In the third quarter of 2019, Munich was listed as the most overvalued housing market in the world. Bubble risk was highest in Munich, Toronto, Hong Kong and Amsterdam. Frankfurt, Vancouver and Paris.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit.  The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic.  The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.

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Why Switzerland ranks near the top of the 2019 global competitiveness ranking

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Switzerland made the the top 5, after dropping from 4th to 5th, in this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index. Switzerland’s decline was largely due to a down weighting of a factor where it is strong, according to WEF’s Saadia Zahidi. The Global Competitive Index measures performance in 114 areas that influence a nation’s productivity.

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The Ultimate Heresy: Technology Can’t Fix What’s Broken

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip, 2012-2016
Technology can't fix what's broken, because what's broken is our entire system.. The ultimate heresy in today's world isn't religious or political: it's refusing to believe that technology can not only solve all our problems, it will do so painlessly and without any sacrifice. Anyone who dares to question this orthodoxy is instantly declared an anti-progress (gasp!) Luddite, i.e. a heretic in league with the Devil.

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Fed Chair Powell’s Inescapable Contradiction

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Conflict and contradiction. These were two of the main themes reverberating around the world of centralized monetary planning this week. On Tuesday, for instance, a novel and contradictory central banker parlance – “reserve management purposes” – was birthed into existence by Fed Chair Jay Powell. We will have more on this later on. But first, to best appreciate the contradiction, we must present the conflict.

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EU removes Switzerland from tax haven list

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

In December 2017, the European Union (EU) set up a blacklist and a grey list of tax havens, countries it deemed were being used to help companies and wealthy individuals reduce their tax bills. Switzerland ended up on the grey list. Nations on these lists faced reputational damage and stricter controls on financial transactions with the EU.

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Never Attribute To Malice What Is Easily Explained By Those Attributing Anything To Term Premiums

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

US Treasury CMT Yields, 2017-2019
There will be more opportunities ahead to talk about the not-QE, non-LSAP which as of today still doesn’t have a catchy title. In other words, don’t call it a QE because a QE is an LSAP not an SSAP. The former is a large scale asset purchase plan intended on stimulating the financial system therefore economy. That’s what it intends to do, leaving the issue of what it actually does an open question.

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Cashflow crisis looms over UN in Geneva

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

The United Nations is facing a serious cashflow crisis, as 63 states – including its largest contributor, the United States – have not paid their annual dues. In Geneva, officials at the UN’s European headquarters (UNOG) are considering ways to cut costs, while the host nation looks on anxiously.

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CPI Changes On Energy: The Inflation Check

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

CPI Changes on Energy, 1995-2019
After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong, let’s give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year’s Day forward policymakers notably changed their tune.

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Dollar Remains Soft as Risk-On Sentiment Continues

2019-10-12

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2019-10-12

Markets have seized on the possibility of a partial trade deal as well as some hopes that a hard Brexit will be avoided. The main event for the day will be President Trump’s meeting with Vice Premier Liu He. These market movements (if sustained) will take pressure off of the Fed to cut rates this month. The notion of a “pathway” to a Brexit deal continues to capture investors’ imagination.

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