Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, December 10: Capital Markets: Still Seems to be the Calm before the Storm

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

Overview: Equities are trading lower, and bonds are mixed as the FOMC, UK election, and the US decision on the December 15 tariffs draw near. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index three-day rally ended today as only China and South Korea's markets rose. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped slightly lower at the open.

Read More »

Switzerland Unemployment in November 2019: Up to 2.3 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., November 2019
Unemployment registered in November 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of November 2019, 106,330 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 4,646 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.2% in October 2019 to 2.3% in the month under review.

Read More »

You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-cycle Analysis
It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to that point, economically speaking.

Read More »

The Taxonomy of Collapse

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

The Lifecycle of States and Empires: Expansion & Collapse
The higher up the wealth-power pyramid the observer is, the more prone they are to a magical-thinking belief that the empire is forever, even as it is crumbling around them. How great nations and empires arise, mature, decay and collapse has long been of interest for a self-evident reason: if we can discern a template or process, we can predict when the great nations and empires of today will slide into the dustbin of history.

Read More »

The End of an Epoch, Report 8 Dec

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Read More »

Why this Boom Could Keep Going Well Beyond 2019

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

Interest rates down, stock prices up, 1990-2020
The Austrian business cycle theory offers a sound explanation of what happens with the economy if and when the central banks, in close cooperation with commercial banks, create new money balances through credit expansion. Said credit expansion causes the market interest rate to drop below its "natural level," tempting people to save less and consume more.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for the last three sessions.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: An Eventful Week Ahead

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

The US employment report on the first Friday of December usually marks the unofficial end of the year. The desks are often lighter and dealers are loath to jeopardize the year’s bonuses in thin and often erratic markets.  This year is an exception.  Next week features the first ECB meeting with Lagarde at the helm and the final FOMC meeting of the year. 

Read More »

Swiss asset managers linked to Austrian corruption scandals

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

Swiss asset managers are involved in some of Austria’s biggest corruption scandals, according to the SonntagsZeitung newspaper. The paper writes that in ongoing cases involving far-right politicians Jörg Haider, Karl-Heinz Grasser and Heinz-Christian Strache, the trail leads back to Zurich, Zug and Nidwalden in Switzerland. It sources this information to a whistleblower.

Read More »

Another month of falling prices in Switzerland

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

Swiss prices fell by 0.1% in November 2019, the sixth time in 12 months. But not everything is cheaper. Prices fell in December 2018 (-0.3%), January 2019 (-0.3), July (-0.5), September (-0.1), October (-0.2%) and November 2019 (-0.1). When combined with the low inflation experienced in the other 6 months the 12-month price drop is -0.1%.

Read More »

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

EM has had a good month so far as market optimism on a Phase One trade deal remains high. Yet November trade data due out this week should show that until that deal is finalized, the outlook for EM remains weak.  Deadline for the next round of US tariffs is December 15 and so talks this week are crucial. 

Read More »

How California’s Government Plans to Make Wildfires Even Worse

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

Not every square inch of the planet earth is suitable for a housing development. Flood plains are not great places to build homes. A grove of trees adjacent to a tinder-dry national forest is not ideal for a dream home. And California's chaparral ecosystems are risky places for neighborhoods.

Read More »

Some Swiss import duties could be axed

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

Swiss import duties on a number of industrial products might disappear if a plan put forward by Guy Parmelin, Switzerland’s economic’s minister, is approved by the National Council, Switzerland’s parliament. The changes are expected to benefit businesses and consumers by around CHF 860 million a year. On the other hand, the government will miss out on collecting roughly CHF 500 million a year of revenue from import duties.

Read More »

Failed space flight firm was backed by ‘phantom bank’

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

The company Swiss Space Systems (S3) received financial backing from a fictitious bank as it unsuccessfully fought against bankruptcy, according to media reports. S3, which promised simulated space flights to the public, collapsed in 2017 amid much controversy.

Read More »

European Economy: A Time Recession

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

European Economy, 2016-2019
Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before.

Read More »

Fails Swarms Are Just One Part

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

US Treasury, 2010-2019
There it was sticking out like a sore thumb right in the middle of what should have been the glory year. Everything seemed to be going just right for once, success so close you could almost feel it. Well, “they” could. The year was 2014 and the unemployment rate in the US was tumbling, the result of the “best jobs market in decades.” Real GDP in that year’s two middle quarters was pretty near 5% in both.

Read More »

Blockchain shares – who needs lawmakers?

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

The Swiss parliament will soon get to grips with merging the current financial system with new blockchain architecture. This is a bit like refitting your whole house to make sure the swanky new furniture and fittings blend in. Switzerland has deliberately chosen to not to tear the whole house down and build it again in a new style.

Read More »

Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

2019-12-07

by

2019-12-07

S&P 500 1-year Realised Volatility vs Effective Fed Funds Real Rates, 1990-2019
Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

Read More »

Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens

2019-12-07

by

2019-12-07

At 30 September 2019, Switzerland had 79,000 job vacancies and 225,000 unemployed workers. This combination of unemployment and job vacancies can largely be explained by two things. The first is frictional unemployment, the period spent in between jobs. This typically increases when there is a lot of job changing. The second is a skills mismatch. Employers cannot find the skills they need among those seeking work.

Read More »

French strike disrupts rail traffic with Switzerland 

2019-12-07

by

2019-12-07

A national strike in France is causing severe disruptions to high-speed TGV rail traffic between Paris and Switzerland. Swiss Federal Railways issued an advisory discouraging travel along this route from December 5 to 8. Only one TGV train will operate between France and Switzerland on Thursday.

Read More »