Tag Archive: newsletter

Typisch Mensch: Man überschätzt sich

2019-04-04

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Wenn allzu menschliche Eigenschaften das Verhalten an den Finanzmärkten prägen: Der Overconfidence Bias

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IMF predicts Swiss growth to slow to 1.1percent in 2019

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

The Swiss economy is likely to slow in 2019, with gross domestic product growth expected to hit 1.1%, followed by a “moderate” recovery in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. The IMF said in a concluding statement, published on Monday following a mission to Switzerland and an annual evaluation, that a “sustained regional slowdown, intensification of global trade tensions and a disruptive Brexit” would adversely affect the Swiss...

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Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2018
In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks.

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Phugoid Dollar Funding

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Money Markets Equivalents 2014-2019
On August 12, 1985, Japan Airways flight 123 left Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on its way to a scheduled arrival in Osaka. Twelve minutes into the flight, the aircraft, a Boeing 747, suffered catastrophic failure when an aft pressure bulkhead burst.

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FX Daily, April 03: Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor.  The connotation is of beautiful harmony.  And investors have taken the bit and run with it.  Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade. China and Europe have reported better than expected PMIs today. 

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Stadler lands $600 million order in the US

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Swiss railway vehicle manufacturer Stadler Rail has won a $600 million (CHF597 million) order in the United States. The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTAexternal link) on Friday announced its decision to award Stadlerexternal link the contract for 127 Metro (underground) trains with two options of 25 additional trains each.

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Cool Video: Fed’s Independence Challenged and Defended

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Marc Chandler talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy
I was on the set Fox Business set this afternoon talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy. Payne suggested that both the political left and right are trying to politicize the Federal Reserve to print money for their favorite programs.

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The Hidden Cost of Losing Local Mom and Pop Businesses

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

American Dynamism in Retreat 1979-2014
What cannot be replaced by corporate chains is neighborhood character and variety. There is much more to this article than first meets the eye: In a Tokyo neighborhood's last sushi restaurant, a sense of loss "Eiraku is the last surviving sushi bar in this cluttered neighborhood of steep cobblestoned hills and cherry trees unseen on most tourist maps of Tokyo.

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Will Basel III Send Gold to the Moon, Report 2 Apr

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Gold and Silver Price
A number of commentators have predicted that the rules of the Basel III bank regulations will cause gold to skyrocket (no, this article is not about our view that gold does not go up, that it’s the dollar going down, that the lighthouse does not go up, it’s the sinking ship going down in the storm).

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FX Daily, April 02: Herding Cats

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&P 500 to its best level since last October. Most Asia Pacific equity markets advanced. Japan's small losses were a notable exception. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has advanced in four of the last five sessions and is little changed, while US shares are trading with a heavier bias.

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GBP to CHF weakness after no majority for alternative Brexit

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate still struggles to push higher amidst global uncertainty and the pressing issue of Brexit. The Swiss franc maintains the higher ground with its safe haven status amidst concerns of a global slowdown, the effects of which are already being seen across China and the EU.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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April Monthly Currency Outlook

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis.

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Million franc salaries cause friction in Bern

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Switzerland’s government recently voted for a ceiling on the salaries of those managing public companies such as Swisscom, Swiss Post, Skyguide and Swiss Rail. In response, the board of Swiss Rail wrote to the Federal Council requesting it to soften its position. From 2020, the company wants to pay its nine senior managers CHF 5.89 million, including a salary of more than CHF 1 million to Andreas Meyer, the boss of the company.

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FX Daily, April 01: China Reanimates the Animal Spirits, While Europe Finds New Ways to Disappoint

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Overview:  Better than expected German retail sales ad employments reports at the end of last week has been followed by gains in China's official PMI  and Caixin's manufacturing reading. However, the spillover from China was limited in Asia.  Japan's Tankan survey and outlook disappointed and South Korea's exports and imports were weaker than expected. 

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Swiss Retail Sales, February 2019: -0.2 percent Nominal and -0.2 percent Real

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, February 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.2% in nominal terms in February 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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FX Weekly Preview: The Green Shoots of Spring

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Investors have worked themselves into a lather. Equities crashed in Q4 last year amid on corporate earnings and concerns about growth. The Fed’s tightening decision in December was made unanimously. The above-trend growth, the preferred inflation measure was near target, unemployment was the lowest in a generation and real rates were historically low.

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The Fed Guarantees No Recession for 10 Years, Permanent Uptrend for Stocks and Housing

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

SPX, future 2003 - 2029
A classified Federal Reserve memo sheds new light on the Fed's confidence in its control of the economy and the stock and housing markets. In effect, the Fed is guaranteeing that there will be no recession for another 10 years, and that stocks and housing will remain in a permanent uptrend.

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Swiss expat community hits 760,000

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Swiss Abroad 2018
The number of Swiss Abroad citizens grew by 1.1% to reach 760,200 at the end of last year. Most live in neighbouring countries and in the United States.The expatriate community accounts for 10.6% of the total number of Swiss nationals, according to official statistics published on Thursday. Nearly three-quarters of the Swiss Abroad have dual nationality.

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Almost 60,000 Swiss dwellings unoccupied last year

2019-03-31

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2019-03-31

A significant increase in vacant homes is predicted by Zurich Cantonal Bank. Suburbs are particularly prone to lower occupancy levels. The problem of empty housing, particularly in the urban periphery, is likely to worsen, with construction activity concentrated in areas with already high vacancy rates. Last year around 59,700 homes did not have any tenants.

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