Tag Archive: newsletter

UBS unveils Year Ahead outlook for 2020 and a ‘decade of transformation’

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

In its base case for 2020, UBS GWM forecasts growth of:
Zurich, 20 November 2019 – Stark political choices make the 2020 outlook more difficult to predict, but innovation driven by technology and sustainability will present new winners and losers over the decade ahead, according to UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM)’s new Year Ahead outlook.

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q4 2019

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Global equity markets continue to power higher US-China trade tensions have eased. MSCI World made a new all-time high today near 2290 and is up 23% YTD. Our 1-rated grouping (outperformers) for Q4 2019 consists of Ireland, Sweden, Israel, Denmark, and Australia. Our 5-rated grouping (underperformers) for Q4 2019 consists of the UK, Hong Kong, Greece, Germany, and Portugal.

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CNBC is careful to admit that owning GLD is not owning gold

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Chris Powell of GATA writes today about how he finds it interesting that CNBC are careful to admit that owning the GLD ETF is not the same thing as owning physical gold, a theme that has run strongly throughout our market commentaries for many years.

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Does Economic Theory Work in Business?

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Marketing guru and fund investor Hunter Hastings joins the Human Action podcast for a look at Economics for Entrepreneurs, a new platform which uses Austrian theory to teach actionable entrepreneurship. Can business acumen be taught, or is it innate? Hunter and Jeff examine consumer sovereignty, value creation, and the theory of the firm, all from a unique Austrian perspective.

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Negativzinsen von mindestens minus 4 Prozent werden kommen

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Jetzt ist es soweit. Die Volksbank Raiffeisenbank Fürstenfeldbruck erhebt als erste Bank in Deutschland Strafzinsen in Höhe von 0,5 Prozent auf das Guthaben von Tagesgeldkonten. Und das bereits ab 0,01 Euro. Dies ist erst der Anfang. In Zukunft werden uns Strafzinsen von minus vier bis minus fünf Prozent blühen, wenn wir weiterhin an dem zum Scheitern verurteilten Währungsexperiment Euro festhalten.

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FX Daily, November 20: Dollar Snaps Back

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Overview: The idea that a US-China trade deal is proving more elusive than the agreement in principle on October 11 implied is being seized upon to spur what we suspect is an overdue round of profit-taking in global equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-advance, with over 1% declines in South Korea and Australia.

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Switzerland excels at attracting talent, but can do better

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

For the sixth consecutive year, Switzerland clinched the top spot in the annual global ranking of the Lausanne-based IMD business school. The 2019 edition of the IMD World Talent Ranking ranked Switzerland highly in the three areas assessed. It came first in appeal, second in investment and development and second in readiness. Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Luxembourg rounded out the top five.

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Julius Bär takes CHF99 million hit on ailing Italian unit

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Swiss wealth manager Julius Bär has downgraded its expectations for attracting new assets from rich clients and announced a CHF99 million ($100 million) write-down on its troubled Italian subsidiary Kairos. Julius Bär issued the warning on Tuesday, less than three months into the tenure of new CEO Philipp Rickenbacher.

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Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Macro Messages 2019
All the status quo "fixes" only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What's open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here's the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo elites can no longer mask soaring costs of essentials nor soaring wealth / income inequality between the top .01% (Oligarchs), the top 9.99% who enrich...

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EM FX Model for Q4 2019

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

EM FX has rallied sharply in recent weeks, helped by growing optimism that we’ve seen the worst of the US-China trade war. Given our more constructive outlook on EM, we believe MSCI EM FX should eventually test the 1657.50 high from July. We see continued divergences within the asset class. Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q4 2019 consists of TWD, THB, PHP, CNY, and KRW.

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Swiss company shares traded as digital tokens

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

A Swiss-German consortium has successful traded company shares on a blockchain-style digital platform using a Swiss franc-backed stablecoin to instantly settle the transaction. The trade marked a significant step towards creating a new breed of stock exchange.

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Don’t Want a Liquidity Trap? More Saving Is the Answer

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

With interest rates in many countries close to zero or even negative, some commentators are of the view that monetary policy of the central banks are likely to become less effective in navigating the economy. In fact it is held that we have most likely reached a situation that the economy is approaching a liquidity trap. But what does this mean?

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Dollar Stabilizes as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Press reports suggest that the mood in Beijing is pessimistic after President Trump pushed back against tariff rollbacks. Fed Chair Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday. Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; the deadline to form a government in Israel is fast approaching. RBA released dovish minutes from its November policy meeting.

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Things the UN does (that you might not know about)

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

What did the United Nations ever do for us? At the risk of a bit of cliched riffing on that famous scene in Monty Python’s Life of Brian, this month’s column is going to take a look at things the UN does that you may not know about. And one thing in particular: promoting fair and equitable access to the internet.

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2019: exports fall but remain stable

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, October 2019
In October 2019, Swiss foreign trade declined in both traffic directions. Exports fell sharply (-5.3%); however, they had jumped 8.8% the previous month, setting the bar very high. Imports fell 2.4%. Since the beginning of the year, foreign trade has thus revealed stagnation. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 2.4 billion francs.

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Most Swiss prefer home grown eggs, meat and dairy

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Recently published statistics suggest most Swiss prefer home grown animal products. Three quarters (75%) of those surveyed said they preferred Swiss eggs and more than half preferred Swiss meat (51%) and dairy products (59%).

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If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Fed balance sheet 2018-2019
Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862: 'If I should call a sheep's tail a leg, how many legs would it have?'

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True US Economy About To Be ‘Revealed’ – Stockman Interview

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

David Stockman is the former budget director for President Ronald Reagan and author of “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and the Fantasy of MAGA”. He believes that the market “can’t digest” all the money flooding into Wall Street and that the Federal Reserve responded with panic.

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The Perversity of Negative Interest, Report 17 Nov

2019-11-18

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2019-11-18

Gold and Silver Prices
Today, we want to say two things about negative interest rates. The first is really simple. Anyone who believes in a theory of interest that says “the savers demand interest to compensate for inflation” needs to ask if this explains negative interest in Switzerland, Europe, and other countries. If not, then we need a new theory (Keith just presented his theory at the Austrian Economics conference at King Juan Carlos University in Madrid—it is...

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