Tag Archive: newsletter

Blockchain shares – who needs lawmakers?

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

The Swiss parliament will soon get to grips with merging the current financial system with new blockchain architecture. This is a bit like refitting your whole house to make sure the swanky new furniture and fittings blend in. Switzerland has deliberately chosen to not to tear the whole house down and build it again in a new style.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

S&P 500 1-year Realised Volatility vs Effective Fed Funds Real Rates, 1990-2019
Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

At 30 September 2019, Switzerland had 79,000 job vacancies and 225,000 unemployed workers. This combination of unemployment and job vacancies can largely be explained by two things. The first is frictional unemployment, the period spent in between jobs. This typically increases when there is a lot of job changing. The second is a skills mismatch. Employers cannot find the skills they need among those seeking work.

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French strike disrupts rail traffic with Switzerland 

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

A national strike in France is causing severe disruptions to high-speed TGV rail traffic between Paris and Switzerland. Swiss Federal Railways issued an advisory discouraging travel along this route from December 5 to 8. Only one TGV train will operate between France and Switzerland on Thursday.

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All Signs Of More Slack

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

PCE Chain-type Price Index, 2009-2019
The evidence continues to pile up for increasing slack in the US economy. While that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession looming, it sure doesn’t help in that regard. Besides, more slack after ten years of it is the real story. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure in October 2019 stood at 1.31%, matching February for the lowest in several years.

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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

US Imports of Goods, NSA 1989-2019
For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over the world during the month of October.

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Blue Laws: Consumers, Not Capitalists, Are the Reason We’re Working on Sunday

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

It has now become commonplace for politicians and media pundits to casually assert that "everyone" — to use Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's term — is now working more and more hours — and perhaps two or three jobs — just to attain the most basic, near-subsistence standard of living.

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Andy Moran – The Shingles

2019-12-06

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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

10-year Core Sovereign Yields, 2017-2019
Neutral US Treasuries. We expect the US 10-year yield to fall towards 1.3% in H1 as US growth falters and the US Federal Reserve starts signalling additional rate cuts. However, continued monetary easing and election promises (i.e. fiscal stimulus) could boost inflation expectations in H2, with the 10-year yield ending 2020 at around 1.6% in our central scenario.

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Environmental spending and jobs on the rise 

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Swiss spending on environmental protection has increased 45% in the last eighteen years, while the number of people employed in the sector has almost doubled. Environmental protection spending rose from CHF8.5 billion ($8.6 billion) in 2000 to CHF12.4 billion in 2018, according to the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link. As a percentage of GDP, it has remained rather stable, fluctuating between 1.9% and 1.7%.

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Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Wages aren't keeping up
And how do we pay for these spiraling out of control costs? By borrowing more, of course. If we had to choose one "big picture" reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would be: the costs of essentials are spiraling out of control. I've often covered the dynamics of stagnating income for the bottom 90%, and real-world inflation, i.e. a decline in purchasing power.

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Largest Gold Nugget in Britain Found in River in Scotland – “Experts” Concerned About a Scottish Gold Rush

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

The largest gold nugget in Britain has been found in a Scottish river, as experts reveal that members of the public are taking up hunting after watching YouTube clips. The diver, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the £80,000 “doughnut-shaped” nugget using a method called “sniping”, in which a prospector uses a snorkel and hand tools to scan the riverbed for treasures.

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Global ‘Gold Rush’ Beginning As Investors and Central Banks Buy, Repatriate and Move Gold

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

◆ Gold is flowing to strong hands in safer forms of gold ownership, in safer jurisdictions. ◆ Gold and silver bullion coins and bars owned by GoldCore’s clients have been moved from Hong Kong to Singapore. ◆ Central bank and institutional gold rush is beginning as prudent money diversifies fx reserves by buying gold & repatriates their gold from London and New York.

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FX Daily, December 5: Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Overview: Global equity markets have resumed their climb after a wobble at the end of last week and earlier this week. A strong recovery in the S&P 500 on Tuesday signaled yesterday's strong advance that left a bullish one-day island low in its wake. MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline today with nearly all the market with the notable exception of South Korea advanced.

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Julius Bär ordered to repay CHF153 million missing German funds

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Swiss bank Julius Bär has been ordered to pay CHF153 million ($155 million) to settle a claim that one of its subsidiaries pilfered money from Germany during the reunification of the country in the 1990s. A Swiss court on Wednesday overturned a previous verdict that Julius Bär should not he held responsible. The Swiss wealth manager has been pursued for damages by a German state department that tracks down assets from the former East Germany.

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SNB entbindet zwei Bilanzpositionen der Unterlegungspflicht

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) passt die Nationalbankverordnung (NBV) mit Wirkung per Anfang 2020 leicht an. Neben der Anpassung diverser in der NBV verwendeter Begriffe und Anpassungen bei den statistischen Erhebungen im Anhang der NBV sind neu zwei Positionen bei der Berechnung der Mindestreserve nicht mehr massgeblich.

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Record number of new e-cars on Swiss roads

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

With 10,329 registrations so far this year, Switzerland and Liechtenstein have more new electric passenger cars than ever before. This is the first time the total hit the five-figure mark. The numbers reflect a 136.6% increase over last year’s fleet of new, completely electric passenger cars. What’s more, now e-cars represent 3.7% of all new cars in Switzerland and the principality next door, reported importer association Auto-Schweiz on Tuesday.

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Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Private Non Residential Construction Spending, 2011-2019
You can see the pattern, a weathervane of sorts in its own right. Not for how the economy is actually going, mind you, more along the lines of how it is being perceived from the high-level perspective. The green light for “trade wars” in the first place was what Janet Yellen and Jay Powell had said about the economy.

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The Risen (euro)Dollar

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

India Real GDP, 1997-2019
Back in April, while she was quietly jockeying to make sure her name was placed at the top of the list to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, Christine Lagarde detoured into the topic of central bank independence. At a joint press conference held with the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, Lesetja Kganyago, as the Managing Director of the IMF Lagarde was asked specifically about President Trump’s habit of tweeting disdain in the direction...

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