Tag Archive: newsletter

The Cultural Consequences of Negative Interest Rates

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Negative interest rates are now entrenched reality in Europe, and not just for buyers of sovereign or corporate debt – even retail savings accounts are affected. What does this mean for real people trying to save for retirement? And more broadly, what does it mean for Europe culturally? Not to mention America, since Alan Greenspan tells us negative rates are coming here soon?

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The ECB’s “mea culpa”

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Economists, conservative investors and market observers have been issuing stern warnings for years regarding the severe impact of the current monetary policy direction. In a recent statement, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned of potential side effects and risks to the economy resulting directly from the central bank’s policies.

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FX Daily, December 4: Hope Springs Eternal

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Overview: The prospect of not just the failure of the US and China to resolve its trade dispute but a new escalation has sapped the confidence that had lifted equity benchmarks and the greenback. Led by more than a 1% decline in Tokyo (Nikkei), Hong Kong, and Australia, all the major markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. European shares, perhaps encouraged by an upward revision to the flash composite PMI, are snapping a four-day 2.75% slide.

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Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Not only will events outrun Plan B, they'll also outrun Plans C and D. We all know what Plan B is: our pre-planned response to the emergence of risk. Plan B is for risks that can be anticipated, regular but unpredictable events such tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. In the human sphere, risks that can be anticipated include temporary loss of a job, stock market down turns, recession, disruption of energy supplies, etc.

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Verpflichtungen der Anlagefonds sinken erstmals seit 2008

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Sinkende Aktienkurse führten 2018 zu hohen Kapitalverlusten. (Bild: Shutterstock/Phongpan)Zwei Faktoren prägten 2018 die finanziellen Forderungen der privaten Haushalte: Einerseits führten sinkende Aktienkurse zu hohen Kapitalverlusten, andererseits erhöhten die privaten Haushalte ihr Finanzvermögen durch Transaktionen.

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China No Longer Needs US Parts In Its Phones

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

China was once very dependent on US chips for its phones. The latest Chinese phones have no US parts. The Wall Street Journal reports Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips. American tech companies are getting the go-ahead to resume business with Chinese smartphone giant Huawei Technologies Co., but it may be too late: It is now building smartphones without U.S. chips.

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$255 Trillion Global Debt Bubble May Burst In 2020 – Prepare Now

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Global Debt on track to surpass $255 Trillion in 2019
◆ Global debt has risen to another record at $255 trillion due to cheap borrowing costs. ◆ A decade of easy money has left the world with a record $250 trillion of government, corporate and household debt. ◆ This is almost three times global economic output and equates to about $32,500 for every man, woman and child on earth.

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Exports: Currency Devaluation Won’t Grow the Economy

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Industrial Production, 2000-2019
A visible weakness in economic activity in major world economies raises concern among various commentators that world economies have difficulties recovering despite very aggressive loose monetary policies. The yearly growth rate of US industrial production stood at minus 1.1 % in October, against minus 0.1% in September, and 4.1% in October last year.

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Dollar Soft on Weak Data and the Return of Tariff Man

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

The dollar has taken a hit from the weaker than expected data Monday. Tariff man is back. The US economy remains solid in Q4 but there are some worrying signs for the November jobs data Friday. The political pressure on Turkey from the US could increase soon; South Africa’s Q3 GDP came in well below expectations at -0.6% q/q and 0.1% y/y.

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FX Daily, December 3: US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Asia Pacific equities mostly declined in sympathy with yesterday's large sell-off in the US and Europe. China and Taiwan were the notable exceptions, while Australia's 2.2% decline, following the central bank meeting that resulted in what many are seeing as a hawkish hold, led the move lower. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% yesterday, the largest loss in two months, and is extending the losses for a third session today.

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USD/CHF hammered down to sub-0.9900 levels, 2-week lows

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Technical levels to watch
USD/CHF lost some additional ground for the second straight session on Tuesday. A subdued USD demand, stability in equity markets did little to provide any respite. Trump’s latest remarks opened the room for a further intraday depreciating move. The USD/CHF pair witnessed some follow-through selling on Tuesday and dropped to near two-week lows, below the 0.9900 handle in the last hour.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in Novemeber 2019: -0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, November 2019
03.12.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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2019-12-03 – Amendment of National Bank Ordinance

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Changes due to entry into force of FinSA/FinIA andadjustments to minimum reserve requirements. The Swiss National Bank is amending the National Bank Ordinance (NBO). Various terms used in the NBO will be revised in connection with the entry into force of the Financial Services Act (FinSA) and the Financial Institutions Act (FinIA) as of 1 January 2020.

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Swiss foreign work permit quotas maintained for 2020

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Every year, Switzerland sets quotas for the number of work visas it issues to citizens outside the EU and EFTA. This week the government announced it would maintain the quota of 8,500 permits that was in place in 2018. In addition, it confirmed an earlier deal it struck with the UK to issue up to 3,500 work visas to British citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

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Money and Prices Are a Dynamic System, Report 1 Dec

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Gold and Silver Prices
The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensional analysis looks at the units on both sides of an equation.

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FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss before the weekend. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also shrugging off the pre-weekend loss and to challenge the multiyear high recorded last week.

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Wird Risiko belohnt?

2019-12-02

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Risikoprämien an den Finanzmärkten. Bildlich dargestellt.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2019: +0.1 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2019
02.12.2019 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data.  While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region.  Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.

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Could America Survive a Truth Commission?

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

A nation that's no longer capable of naming names and reporting what actually happened richly deserves an economic and political collapse to match its moral collapse. You've probably heard of the Truth Commissions held in disastrously corrupt and oppressive regimes after the sociopath/kleptocrat Oligarchs are deposed. 

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