Tag Archive: newsletter

Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-21

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2020-12-21

As of this writing, a stimulus deal is close and a US government shutdown Monday may have been avoided; the Fed gave US banks the go-ahead to resume stock buybacks Friday; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported on Wednesday due to the holiday.

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Covid: Switzerland suspends flights from the UK and South Africa

2020-12-21

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2020-12-21

Late on 20 December 2020, the Swiss government decided to suspend flights to Switzerland from the UK and South Africa following news of the discovery a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

Inflation Expectations, 2015-2019
Optimism on a stimulus deal remains high; the FOMC decision will be key; the dollar tends to weaken on recent FOMC decision days November retail sales will be the US data highlight; Markit reports preliminary December PMI readings; Canada reports November CPI

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Deflation: Friend or Foe?

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

Deflation is the most feared economic phenomenon of our time. The reason behind this a priori irrational fear (why should we be afraid of prices going down?) is the Great Depression.

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What Is the Great Reset? Part I: Reduced Expectations and Bio-techno-feudalism

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

The Great Reset is on everyone’s mind, whether everyone knows it or not. It is presaged by the measures undertaken by states across the world in response to the covid-19 crisis. (I mean by “crisis” not the so-called pandemic itself, but the responses to a novel virus called SARS-2 and the impact of the responses on social and economic conditions.)

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It Should Shock Us That There’s Any Consumer Price Inflation at All

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Thanks to lockdowns, high unemployment, and general uncertainty and fear over covid-19, the personal saving rate in the United States in October was 13.6 percent, the highest since the mid-1970s. This is down from April’s rate of 33.7 percent, which was the highest saving rate recorded since the Second World War.

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Countries still far from achieving sustainable development

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

The latest United Nations Human Development Report has found that countries, including Switzerland, still struggle to achieve high levels of human development without straining the planet.

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Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle Analysis
There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).

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Krankenzusatzversicherer: FINMA sieht umfassenden Handlungsbedarf bei Leistungsabrechnungen

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht FINMA stellt aufgrund ihrer jüngsten Analysen fest, dass Rechnungen im Bereich der Krankenzusatzversicherung häufig intransparent sind und zum Teil unbegründet hoch oder ungerechtfertigt scheinen.

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Fed Recommits to Misleading the Public About Inflation

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Did the Federal Reserve just usher in the next phase of the U.S. dollar’s decline? On Wednesday, the central bank recommitted to leaving its benchmark interest rate near zero for the foreseeable future. Fed officials also vowed to keep pumping cash into financial markets.

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Switzerland Construction prices fell by 0.2 percent in October 2020

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

Development of the construction price index in Switzerland, October 2020
The construction price index recorded a decline of 0.2% between April and October 2020, reaching 99.7 points (October 2015 = 100). This result reflects a decline in building prices and a slight growth in civil engineering prices. Year on year, construction prices remained stable.

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What Did Hamper Growth ‘In A Few Months’

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

US Industrial Production, SA 2011-2020
Over here, on the other side of that ocean, the US economy can only dream of the low levels Chinese industry has been putting up this late into 2020. At least those in the East are back positive year-over-year. Here in America, manufacturing and industry can’t even manage anything like a plus sign.

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators. Both countries came under scrutiny in the last report and so this week’s announcement was only surprising in that it was made by a lame duck administration that will be gone in a month.

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Monetary policy assessment of 17 December 2020

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2020
The coronavirus pandemic is continuing to have a strong adverse effect on the economy. Against this difficult backdrop, the SNB is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy with a view to stabilising economic activity and price developments.

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Wieso (Teil-)Lockdowns nicht gerechtfertigt sind – Einer Kurz-Analyse der Zahlen.

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

Täglich werden wir von den Medien mit Behauptungen und Schocknachrichten in die kollektive Schockstarre getrieben.

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Trump’s NDAA Veto Threat Should Force a Conversation on Defense Spending

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

A dirty secret of congressional military spending is that when the government allocates billions in spending, unnecessary, wasteful, and parochial interests quickly find their way into the legislation. Original Article: "Trump’s NDAA Veto Threat Should Force a Conversation on Defense Spending". This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Covid, December 18: 22 percent of Geneva tests positive for antibodies

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

An update to an antibody study conducted by HUG and UNIGE suggests that 22% of Geneva’s population had been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus by December 2020.

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2020: exports are on the rise

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), November 2020
In November 2020, Swiss foreign trade stood out with an increase in both directions of traffic. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports advanced 4.8% and imports 4.2%. Falling over the previous two months, exports resumed their growth path and the trade balance closed with a surplus of 3.1 billion francs.

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FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar.  Equity markets are moving higher.  Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February.

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Large government budget deficit in 2021 for Switzerland

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

On 16 December 2020, Switzerland’s Council of States, the nation’s upper house, accepted a 2021 budget deeply in the red following its acceptance last week by the National Council.

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