Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, March 25: Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

Overview:  Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend.  Asia's sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a fourth session. It lost 1.2% at the end of last week and gapped lower today but stabilizing after the better than expected German IFO survey.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

The combination of the dovish hold by the Federal Reserve and the eurozone's miserable flash Purchasing Managers Index casts a pall over the economic outlook.  Japan's flash PMI remained stuck at February's 48.9, while core inflation unexpectedly eased.  Three months after the European Central Bank stopped buying bonds, the German 10-year Bund yield fell below zero for the first time since 2016.

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Swiss join protests against EU copyright reform

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

Tens of thousands of people across Europe, including in the Swiss city of Zurich, staged protests on Saturday against the European Union's planned copyright reform bill. More than 1,000 demonstrators marched in the northeastern Switzerland against the copyright reforms which critics fear threaten freedom of speech, according to the Keystone-SDA news agency.

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Politics Has Failed, Now Central Banks Are Failing

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 2004-2018
With each passing day, we get closer to the shift in the tide that will sweep away this self-serving delusion of the ruling elites like a crumbling sand castle. Those living in revolutionary times are rarely aware of the tumult ahead: in 1766, a mere decade before the Declaration of Independence, virtually no one was calling for American independence.

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Is Inflation Beginning? Are You Ready?

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

Extrapolating The Recent Past Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” remarked George Santayana over 100 years ago.  These words, as strung together in this sequence, certainly sound good.  But how to render them to actionable advice is less certain.

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Switzerland waives post-Brexit visa requirement for British nationals

2019-03-24

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2019-03-24

The Swiss government has dropped the requirement that British nationals obtain a visa to enter Switzerland for a lengthy stay after Britain leaves the European Union. The British government has also extended the same privilege to Swiss nationals wishing to enter Britain after Brexit.

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February 2019 PBOC/RMB Update

2019-03-24

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2019-03-24

China Internal/External 2017-2019
This will serve mostly as an update to what is going on inside the Chinese monetary system. The PBOC’s balance sheet numbers for February 2019 are exactly what we’ve come to expect, ironically confirmed today on the domestic end by the FOMC’s dreaded dovishness. Therefore, rather than rewrite the same commentary for why this continues to happen I’ll just link to prior discussions.

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Wunschdenken von Frau BR Amherd

2019-03-24

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2019-03-24

Das VBS hat seit dem neuen Jahr eine Cheffin. Anlässlich der SOG-DV vom 16. März 2019 hat sie sich an die Offiziere gewandt und dabei einige interessante Äusserungen (Hervorhebungen durch den Autor) gemacht, so etwa zu den “Entwicklungen im internationalen Streitkräftebereich”:

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Live Artikel 13 DEMO München 23.3.19

2019-03-23

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✘ Werbung: https://www.Whisky.de/shop/ Kunden werben Tesla-Kunden ► http://ts.la/theresia5687 ►

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Parliament rejects reform of health insurance scheme

2019-03-23

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2019-03-23

Patients will not have to pay out extra money for health services before the health insurance covers the costs, after parliament surprisingly threw out the controversial proposal on Friday. In a previous decision earlier this month, parliament had agreed to increase the deductible paid by patients to CHF350 ($350) annually under certain conditions.

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FOMC: Above Trend Growth Requires Continued Monetary Support

2019-03-23

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2019-03-23

The Federal Reserve sounded more dovish than many expected and this prompted a 5-7 bp drop in US rates, and the dollar fell to new lows for the week against many of the major currencies.  The median Fed forecast now anticipates no hike this year but one next year.  The Fed will also taper the roll-off of its balance sheet and completing it by the end of September.

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Which Nations Will Crumble and Which Few Will Prosper in the Next 25 Years?

2019-03-23

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2019-03-23

S-Curve of Centralization
Adaptability and flexibility will be the core survival traits going forward. What will separate the many nations that will crumble in the next 25 years and those few that will survive and even prosper while the status quo dissolves around them? As I explain in my recent book Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic, the factors that will matter are not necessarily cultural or financial; being hard-working and...

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FX Daily, March 22: Dreadful EMU PMI and US Machinations Rival Brexit for Attention

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from the post-FOMC reversal to close a new 5-month high yesterday, led by technology.  Financials were the only main sector to retreat.  The large equity markets in Asia, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan all advanced.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed its initial gains and is nursing a small loss on the week.

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Pound falls against the Swiss franc owing to third meaningful vote uncertainty

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

The pound has once again felt the impact of the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the pound has fallen against the Swiss franc during yesterday afternoon’s trading session. We are now just over a week away from when the UK is due to leave the European Union and the latest update is that the EU will allow an extension until the end of June if Theresa May can get her deal backed in the next few days.

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In Gold We Trust 2019 – The Preview Chart Book

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

Gold and other financial assets
The new IGWT report for 2019 will be published at the end of May… …and for the first time a Mandarin version will be released as well. In the meantime, our friends at Incrementum have decided to release a comprehensive chart book in advance of the report. The chart book contains updates of the most important charts from the 2018 IGWT report, as well as a preview of charts that will appear in the 2019 report.

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Swiss companies make contingency plans amid Brexit uncertainty

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

As the Brexit saga continues, Swiss companies are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. But optimism is waning among companies that are trying to minimise disruptions from any deal/no-deal scenarios. With the UK’s departure from the EU scheduled for March 29, British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday asked the EU bloc to postpone the UK’s departure until June 30.

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Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey 2007-2019
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6.

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The Real End of the Bond Market

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

US Treasury Yield Curve
These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets work. They can’t even get federal funds right after two technical adjustments to IOER (the joke).

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FX Daily, March 21: Dovish Fed Sends Global Yields Lower, but Little Succor for Stocks

2019-03-21

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2019-03-21

The dovishness of the Federal Reserve sent ripples through the capital markets. US equities reversed initial gains, but Asia Pacific equities edged higher, though Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday. European shares are struggling, as financials and consumer discretionary lead the 0.3% push lower. US shares are also trading with a heavier bias.

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