Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, May 13: Investors Still Looking for New Balance

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China has discombobulated investors. They had been repeatedly that a deal was close and there had even been talk at the US Treasury about where Trump and Xi should meet to sign the agreement. Now China was given around a month to capitulate to US demands or face a 25% tariff on their remaining exports to the US.

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FX Weekly Preview: Trade, the Dollar, and the Week Ahead

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

China is isolated on trade. No one supports its trade practices. The idea that China was going to "naturally" evolve to be more like the US, or Europe for that matter, was always fanciful and naive. The emergence of China, as Napoleon warned two centuries ago, would make the world shake.

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Trade Wars Have Arrived, But It’s Trade Winter That Hurts

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

U.S. Imports from China, Jan 1989 - 2019
There is truth to the trade war. That’s a big problem because it’s not the only problem. It isn’t even the main one. Given that, it’s easy to look at tariffs and see all our current ills in them. The Census Bureau reports today that the trade wars have definitely arrived. In March 2019, US imports from China plummeted by nearly 19% year-over-year.

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A family apartment in Geneva close to twice the price of one in St. Gallen

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

On average, renting a 4.5 room apartment of 100 to 110 m2 costs CHF 3,820 a month in Geneva. The same apartment in the Swiss city of St. Gallen costs CHF 2,004, 52% of the price, according to a report on rents in Switzerland’s ten main cities by the price comparison website Comparis. For an apartment of this size, Geneva (3,820) is the most expensive, followed by Zurich (3,073), Lausanne (2,850), Basel (2,660), Bern (2,600), Luzern (2,430),...

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Unrealistically Great Expectations

2019-05-12

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2019-05-12

Declining Wages, 2008 - 2014
Let's see if we can tie together four social dynamics: the elite college admissions scandal, the decline in social mobility, the rising sense of entitlement and the unrealistically 'great expectations' of many Americans. As many have noted, the nation's financial and status rewards are increasingly flowing to the top 5%, what many call a winner-take-all or winner-take-most economy.

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Up to 100 Nestlé jobs in Basel at risk

2019-05-12

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2019-05-12

Nestle is planning to restructure its operations in the Swiss city of Basel. Up to 100 jobs are threatened by cuts or moving production abroad. Some 177 people are employed at Nestlé’s Basel plant, 100 of which could be under threat over the next 18 months, the Swiss food giant announced on Thursday.

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The price of some Swiss trains passes could rise significantly

2019-05-11

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2019-05-11

Some travelers on Swiss trains could be in for a shock. The price of a GA travel card, an annual pass that allows unlimited travel of the Swiss Rail network, might rise 10% in 2021, according to the newspaper Le Matin. Compared to the price of other passes and tickets, the AG pass is relatively good value, according to a leaked internal document written by CH-direct, a pricing association bringing together 250 Swiss public transport companies.

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The Great Unraveling Begins: Distraction, Lies, Infighting, Betrayal

2019-05-11

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2019-05-11

Income Inequality and Political Polarization, 1947 - 2009
There are two basic pathways to systemic collapse: external shocks or internal decay. The two are not mutually exclusive, of course; it can be argued that the most common path is internal decay weakens the empire/state and an external shock pushes the rotted structure off the cliff.

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French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

French - Real GDP Growth, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
The French government’s respond to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year.Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing.

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FX Daily, May 10: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

Overview:  Contrary to hopes and expectations, the US made good on the presidential tweet and raised the tariff on around $200 bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.  Trump indicated that the process that will levy a 25% tariff on the remaining Chinese imports has begun. Also contrary to expectations, Chinese officials did not detail their response, though it is expected to be forthcoming.

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Geneva has most expensive family flats to rent

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

Family apartments in Geneva are the most expensive to rent, while those in St Gallen in the east of the country are the cheapest, according to a survey of the ten biggest Swiss cities. The median monthly rent for a 4.5-room apartment (100-110 square metres) in St Gallen costs CHF2,004 ($1,971), according to a survey published on Thursday by the price comparison website Comparis.

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China’s Export Story Is Everyone’s Economic Base Case

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

China Exports, 1998-2018
The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive with a more aggressive ECB emerging.

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FX Daily, May 09: De-Risking as US-China Trade Talks Resume

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff hike, global equities are being smashed. Korea's Kospi was off 3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was shed 2.4%. Shanghai lost 1.5%.

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New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Washington, DC (May 8, 2019) – U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration. The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves,...

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Swiss teachers stretched thin with unpaid overtime work

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Swiss teachers are still working too much unpaid overtime, particularly in German-speaking Switzerland, according to a new survey by two major teachers’ associations. "Swiss teachers have the highest number of working hours of all OECD countries and work unpaid overtime for hundreds of millions of francs," denounced Beat Zemp, president of the Swiss Teachers’ Association (LCH).

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What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Europe Real GDP, 2007-2013
It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of crisis and economic weakness...

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Switzerland Unemployment in April 2019: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.4percent

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., April 2019
Registered Unemployment in April 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of April 2019, 107,298 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 5,043 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.5% in March 2019 to 2.4% in the month under review.

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FX Daily, May 08: Markets Trying to Stabilize

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Overview:  It is taking investors a bit more than two sessions to find its footing after being the unexpected end of the tariff truce between the US and China struck last December. Asia Pacific equities tumbled after the S&P 500 shed nearly 1.7% yesterday, the third largest decline in 2019, but Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near yesterday's lows.

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Brexit to drive pound to Swiss franc exchange rates

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Yesterday the PM’s deputy David Liddington confirmed that the UK will be taking part in European elections, therefore in my view the cross-party talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are over. If the Prime Minister thought that they would be able to come to an agreement in the upcoming days Mr Liddington would not have made the announcement yesterday.

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Gun law and corporate tax reforms set to be approved

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Opponents of restrictions on gun ownership in Switzerland have not been able to win substantial additional support over the past months, according to an opinion poll ahead of a nationwide vote on May 19. The No camp lags more than 30 percentage points behind the supporters, a survey published by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday as found.

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