Tag Archive: newsletter

Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

Italy: Key Upcoming Dates, 2019
Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August.

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Swiss pharma executive gets US sanction for insider trading  

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fined Lorenz Erne, a former senior executive at Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche, for insider trading and ordered him to pay back the ill-gotten profits. Erne accepted the accusations and agreed to the terms of a settlement with the SEC, according to an SEC document published on Thursday. He has to pay back $159,228 (CHF156,000) plus a fine of $79,614 within 14 days to the SEC “for transfer to the...

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Retail Sales’ Amazon Pick Up

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2019
The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the balance continuing in each direction – more of the good vs. more of the bad.

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Trendhandel auf Wolke 7 – Automatische Einstiege im Trading mit Ichimoku Charts

2019-08-16

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#ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO – was hier so kompliziert klingt, ist eine Wunderwaffe für Trader. Oft unterschätzt und noch viel öfter missverstanden, zeigt dieser Traum-#Indikator für trendfolgende Trader nicht nur erstklassige Einstiegslevel für #Swingtrades. Er liefert gleichzeitig noch eine Einteilung der Signale in „stark“ „neutral“ und „schwach“. Doch damit nicht genug zeigt er dem Trader auch direkt noch die wichtigen Unterstützungs- und...

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FX Daily, August 16: Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Overview:  The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long.  Next week's flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to countermeasures to the new US tariffs.

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New monetary policies for new challenges

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Towards a New Monetary Policy Style, 1981-2029
As central banks try (yet again) to bolster faltering growth and inflation, it is important to grasp how the ‘style’ and aims of monetary policy-making have changed over time and how they need to evolve in the future.The world is being disrupted by structural trends such as populism, demographic and climate change and technological innovation.

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Swiss taxis Europe’s most expensive

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

In a recent comparison of taxi fares across Europe, Geneva and Zurich were the most expensive. In the study, which focused on the total cost of a taxi journey from the airport to the centre of town, Geneva (€36 – CHF40) and Zurich (€63 – CHF70) fared better than Milan (€105) and London (€104), which had the highest total journey costs. However, this is only because Zurich and Geneva airports are close to the city centre.

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US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Industrial Production, NSA 2006-2019
Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was one nor in anticipation of one.

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The Paradox of the Creditor Debtor Relationship: Germany the Debtor Nation – Heiner Flassbeck 1/2

2019-08-15

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Former German finance minister, Heiner Flassbeck, on the unbearable debt imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles after WWI, the subsequent debt forgiveness & restructuring of Germany’s external debt after WWII and Germany’s position today as a European creditor nation. Two part series. Originally published June 26, 2013 at TRNN with which Lynn Fries is no longer associated.

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The Paradox of the Creditor Debtor Relationship: Germany the Creditor Nation – Heiner Flassbeck 2/2

2019-08-15

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Heiner Flassbeck: In Germany, unfortunately, the historical lessons are not even discussed.We’re asking debtor countries to repay their debt, but at the same time we are preventing them being able to do so. Originally published June 30, 2013 at TRNN with which Lynn Fries is no longer associated.

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FX Daily, August 15: Animal Spirits Lick Wounds

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

Overview:  It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture to China. 

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2019: -1.7 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, July 2019
15.08.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap as well as petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.7%.

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SNB sicher&solvent? Ja, meint Bern, und verweist auf Fussnote von Fussnote

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

SNB Logo
Der Bundesrat behauptet, es bestehe bei der SNB kein Solvenz-Risiko. Er begründet das in seiner Botschaft an das Parlament mit einer Fussnote zu einer anderen Fussnote, die es in einer Festschrift so gar nicht gibt. Das ist liederliche Arbeit in Bundesbern; und das zu einem Thema, das staatspolitisch von grösster Tragweite ist.

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The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

U.S. Gasoline Stocks, 2012-2019
If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its estimates for the third time in four months.

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FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

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Nationalbank unter Interventionsdruck

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

Der Schweizer Franken wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker gegenüber dem Euro. (Bild: Pixeljoy/Shutterstock.com)Die Zinssenkunkung der US-Notenbank Fed und die von der EZB angekündigten Massnahmen zur Lockerung der Geldpolitik sowie die jüngsten Ereignisse im Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China haben den Druck auf den Franken erhöht. Die Schweizer Währung wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback jumps and settles above 0.9726 as tariffs gets delayed

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

USD/CHF daily chart, August 14
USD/CHF is trading off 2-month lows below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). US equity markets are rising sharply as US tariffs are to be delayed to December 15. The news was perceived as risk-on, sending safe-haven CHF, JPY and gold down.

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Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019
What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else.

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Developed market equities update: a fairly reassuring reporting season

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

August’s Equity Sell-off’s Magnitude Looks Like May’s, but was Much More Rapid
There is an ongoing tug-of-war between trade tensions and fundamentals Due to renewed trade tensions, the S&P 500 corrected by 6.0% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8% from the late July peak to the 5 August low. Because the pullback was clustered around just a few days, its intensity was reminiscent of the worst market days of past major crises.

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Swiss financial sector shines in international survey 

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Switzerland’s financial centre has a positive reputation abroad, despite a string of scandals in 2018, according to a 19-nation survey conducted by Presence Suisse. The reputation and quality of Swiss banks were rated as “good” to “very good” by most respondents in the international poll of 12,767 people. The ethics and responsibility of the Swiss banking sector are also well regarded.

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