Tag Archive: Japan

Japanese Currency Debasement, Part 1: Current Account and Japanese Bond Bears

2013-01-30

In our first part on Japans currency debasement, we look on three aspects, government bond yields, current account balances and potential hyper-inflation which causes yields to rise strongly.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

by George Dorgan

2013-01-26

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

2013-01-14

by George Dorgan

2013-01-14

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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Same Procedure as Every Year: Analysts Shouting “The Great Recession is Over!” But It Is Not!

2013-01-06

by George Dorgan

2013-01-06

Or why we do not believe in the American economy. Like every year in Q4, analysts proudly present the end of the great recession: 2009: The big picture: The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession …. 2010: Mish Global Trend Analysis: The Great Recession is Over; Bad News: It Doesn’t Feel Like … Continue...

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Gold Tells the History of the 20th Century

Gold value and tons per country reserves US Canada Japan Swiss Netherland UK Russia France Italy

The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

2012-12-26

by George Dorgan

2012-12-26

Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

by George Dorgan

2012-12-20

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012. January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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May Japan face a weak yen and high bond yields?

2012-12-07

by George Dorgan

2012-12-07

Like often in global economic downturns, the demand for Japanese cars and electronics has fallen in Q3, especially due to European purchasers. Additionally fueled by a row with China, the current account has become negative. Is Japan doomed because the yen will fall and bond yields will rise?

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The Balance Sheet Recession: UK Q2 Housing Equity Injection Largest Since Q2 2011

2012-12-03

by George Dorgan

2012-12-03

Gross Flow Withdrawals Injections BoE UK

The American-Taiwanese economist Richard Koo, is the chief-economist of the Nomura Research Institute. In his theory of the Balance Sheet Recession he distinguishes between the “Yang” phase of the economy and the “Yin” phase (the so-called “balance sheet recession”). In “Yang” times companies want to increase profit and people consume a big part of their pay …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

by George Dorgan

2012-11-12

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry December 3, 2012 …

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Who Has Got the Problem? Europe or Japan?

2012-10-23

by George Dorgan

2012-10-23

A couple of months ago the euro traded close to EUR/USD 1.20 and the whole world was betting on its breakdown. Once the euro downtrend ended thanks to QE3, OMT and euro zone current account surpluses, the common currency did not stop to appreciate against the yen and reached levels of EUR/JPY 104 and above. … Continue reading...

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The End of Swiss and Japanese Deflation

2012-07-12

by George Dorgan

2012-07-12

At a time of speculations about global deflation, we show an interesting and very different aspect. Our CPI and wage data comparison among different developed countries, shows that Switzerland and Japan will see both inflation, whereas other countries like Australia will see disinflation.

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

by George Dorgan

2012-05-22

Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

by George Dorgan

2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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Credit Crisis Could Lift Yen, Franc (July 2008)

2008-07-31

by George Dorgan

2008-07-31

Jul. 31st 2008 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (July 2008). As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as the …

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