Tag Archive: Japan

SNB to Follow the Bank of Japan? Part1

2013-06-04

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2013-06-04

ISM Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing May 2013 YoY
Questions to George Dorgan Is there any chance that the SNB or other central banks could follow the BOJ and just depreciate the currency? George Dorgan: What did the BoJ do? Monetary easing and talk down the yen in a mercantilist style. A central bank is able to talk down a currency only if there … Continue reading »

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Abenomics: Japanese Economy Would Have Recovered Even Without it

2013-05-25

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2013-05-25

Response to Prof. Nick Rowe, Carleton University, Canada and Lars Christensen, the leading “Market Monetarist“.   Nick Rowe: Is the Bank of Japan trying to push down bond yields? Well, yes and no. Yes, it is fighting a battle to push down bond yields, but that battle is part of a wider war for economic recovery. And …

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How 40% Renmimbi appreciation vs Yen Caused a Deflationary Commodity Price Shock for World Economy

2013-05-23

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2013-05-23

Renmimbi vs Yen USD
  Everybody is wondering why China is currently so weak, with a HSBC manufacturing in contractionary territory. No wonder, the main competitor in electronics and many more products,the Japanese yen has appreciated by nearly 40%. While China has to fight years-long appreciation of wages, the Japanese profit on years-long deflation and cheaper costs. At the …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices

2013-04-11

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2013-04-11

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.   August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …

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When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions?

2013-03-05

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2013-03-05

Hedge Funds have lost their power. This year has shown that their only remaining possibility to gain easy money  is a concerted action with some of their friends manipulating currency markets, calling it “currency wars” and creating an unholy alliance with the dovish prime minister Abe. Some of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund investors have made …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

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2013-01-26

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

2013-01-14

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2013-01-14

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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Gold Tells the History of the 20th Century

Gold value and tons per country reserves US Canada Japan Swiss Netherland UK Russia France Italy


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The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

2012-12-26

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2012-12-26

Since 1960 Treasury Yield Chart
Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

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2012-12-20

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012.   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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The Balance Sheet Recession: UK Q2 Housing Equity Injection Largest Since Q2 2011

2012-12-03

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2012-12-03

Gross Flow Withdrawals Injections BoE UK
The American-Taiwanese economist Richard Koo, is the chief-economist of the Nomura Research Institute. In his theory of the Balance Sheet Recession he distinguishes between the “Yang” phase of the economy and the “Yin” phase (the so-called “balance sheet recession”). In “Yang” times companies want to increase profit and people consume a big part of their pay …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

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2012-11-12

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
  Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world.  BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry   December 3, 2012 …

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

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2012-05-22

Core PCE
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

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2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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