Tag Archive: Italy

Great Graphic: Sentix Shows a Shift

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

Sentix Euro Break-up Index: Greece and Italy
The risk that the eurozone implodes over the next year has risen, but is still modest. Italy has surpassed Greece as the most likely candidate. The December referendum is the second part of Renzi's political reforms.

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Jim Grant Puzzled by the actions of the SNB

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of a crash in sovereign debt, is puzzled over the actions of the Swiss National Bank and bets on gold.

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Central Bank Austria Claims To Have Audited Gold at BOE. Refuses To Release Audit Report

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

After years of gradually securing its official gold reserves (unwinding leases) the central bank of Austria claims to have completed the audits of its 224 tonnes of gold stored at the BOE. However, it refuses to publish the audit reports and the gold bar list. What could possibly be so sensitive to hide from public eyes?

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Great Graphic: Italian Banks and a German Bank

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

DB and Italian bank stocks have been moving in tandem. They suffer from fundamentally different problems. The euro has been selling off as the bank shares rebound.

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Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

A couple of weeks ago an article appeared on Bitcoin Magazine entitled ‘Some economists really hate bitcoin’. I read it with a sigh of nostalgia. As someone who has been writing about gold for a few years, I am used to reading similar criticisms as those bitcoin receives from mainstream economists, about gold.

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Why Portugal Matters

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

DBRS reviews its investment grade rating of Portugal on Oct 21. A cut in its rating would have far reaching implications. A cut in the outlook is more likely than a cut the rating.

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Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility. We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements… but it would be controversial and we question the benefits. An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme.

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FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Two Bookends

2016-10-02

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2016-10-02

The start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank's travails and dollar funding pressures, which may or may not be related. The end of the week features the US monthly jobs report. Despite being a noisy, high frequency time series subject to significant revisions, this report like none other can drive expectations of Fed policy.

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Renzi and the Italian Referendum: Disruption Potential Minimized

2016-10-01

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2016-10-01

Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly. It will be held on December 4. The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. Renzi's argument is that the political reform is necessary to make Italy governable. Italy has had 63 governments since the end of WWII. In order to address the economic challenges the country faces, political...

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Europe Debates The Burkini: “We Will Colonize You With Your Democratic Laws”

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

"We will colonize you with your democratic laws." — Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Egyptian Islamic cleric and chairman of the International Union of Muslim Scholars. "Beaches, like any public space, must be protected from religious claims. The burkini is an anti-social political project aimed in particular at subjugating women.

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FX Daily, August 31: Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month. The tone is consolidative as the market awaits assurances that the jobs growth this month has been sufficiently strong as to keep the prospects of a September meeting still alive.

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European Court of Justice Ruling Weighs on Italian Banks

2016-07-19

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2016-07-19

ECJ uphold principle of bailing in junior creditors before the use of public funds. Italian banks shares snap a three-day advance. The EBA/ECB stress test results at the end of next week are the next big event.

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FX Daily, July 18: Coup in Turkey Repulsed, Risk-Appetites Return

2016-07-18

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2016-07-18

The US dollar and the yen are trading heavy, while risk assets, including emerging markets, and the Turkish lira, have jumped. Sterling is the strongest of the majors. It is up about 0.5% (~$1.6365), helped by the opportunity of GBP23.4 bln foreign direct investment and comments from a hawkish member of the MPC suggesting not everyone is onboard necessarily for a rate cut next month.

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FX Daily, July 12: Easing Political Uncertainty Encourages Animal Spirits

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Further risk appetite means rising euro and weaker CHF. The SNB typically sustains such risk appetite phases with smaller FX interventions of around 300 million per day. Sterling is leading the new appetite for risk as one element of political uncertainty has been lifted. It is moving higher for the third consecutive session today; advancing by more than 1.5 cents to reach $1.3180.

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Stockman Rages: Ben Bernanke Is “The Most Dangerous Man Walking This Planet”

2016-07-12

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2016-07-12

Ben Bernanke is one of the most dangerous men walking the planet. In this age of central bank domination of economic life he is surely the pied piper of monetary ruin. At least since 2002 he has been talking about “helicopter money” as if a notion which is pure economic quackery actually had some legitimate basis.

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New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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Yahoo Finance Editor “We’re Suffering Of Too Much Democracy”

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

Following James Traub's mind-numbingly-elitist rebuttal of the democratic rights of "we, the people" in favor of allowing "they, the elite" to ensure the average joe doesn't run with scissors, "It's time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses."

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The Worst is Yet to Come–Don’t be Seduced by the Price Action

2016-06-29

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2016-06-29

The two-day bounce in sterling seems technically driven rather than fundamental. The Brexit decision has set off a unfathomable chain of events whose impact and implications are far from clear. The economic hit on the UK may spur a BOE rate cut, even if not QE, as early as next month.

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