Tag Archive: Italy

ECB Assets Hit 35 percent Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Owns 9.2 percent Of European Corporate Bond Market

As global markets bask in the glow of the Trumpflation recovery, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind what DB recently dubbed global "helicopter money", by buying copious amounts of bonds on a daily basis (at least until tomorrow when the ECB goes on brief monetization hiatus, and Italy will be on its own for the next two weeks).

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FX Daily, December 19: EUR/CHF Dives under 1.07

Once again a line in sand for the Swiss National Bank is broken. The EUR/CHF falls under 1.07. But trading algorithms are like this: When the EUR/USD is falling, then the EUR/CHF must follow. The SNB decided not to intervene any more at 1.07.

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FX Daily, December 13: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. The dollar finished yesterday's North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited. After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. Initial potential seemed to extend toward JPY114.30, but dollar buyers reemerged near JPY114.75, and it rose back the middle of the two-day range...

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FX Weekly Preview: What the FOMC Says may be More Important than What it Does

FOMC meeting is the last highlight of the year. OPEC and non-OPEC producers strike a deal: optics good and that can lift prices further in near term. Italy will have a new Prime Minister, the fourth unelected PM.

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Adoption Of The Euro Has Been ‘Unequivocally Bad’ For Southern European Economies

Some say that the common currency prevents less productive economies from cheating by weakening their national currencies and forces them to become more efficient and competitive. Industrial production data shows that it is not the case. Italy, France, Greece and Portugal have not only stopped producing more; they are producing now less than in 1990! The decay started immediately after the introduction of the euro in 2002!

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FX Daily, December 08: Dollar Heavy into ECB

The ECB prolonged its bond purchases, which came unexpected for markets. Consequently the EUR/CHF lost nearly half of its big gains that it registered in the beginning of the week. The ECB expects lower inflation for longer, which makes the life for the SNB harder for longer.

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FX Daily, December 07: Greenback is Broadly Steady While Sterling Slides

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception, losing about 0.75% to trade at three-day lows. It was on the defensive in early European turnover but got the run pulled from beneath by the unexpectedly poor data. UK industrial output fell by 1.3% in October. The median forecast was for a small increase.

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FX Daily, December 06: You Can Almost Hear a Pin Drop

The foreign exchange market is quiet. Ranges are narrow, with the US dollar mostly consolidating against the major currencies. Given the push lower yesterday, the shallowness of its recovery warns of the greenback's downside correction after strong gains last month may not be complete.

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FX Daily, December 05: Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Still Vulnerable to Corrective Pressures

After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note. It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies. Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump and the Taiwanese President, the developments in Europe grabbed the markets' attention. Austria turned back the populist right Freedom Party's bid for the presidency. The Freedom Party does not appear to have carried...

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FX Weekly Preview: Focus Shifts toward Europe

US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV-Italy and Austria this Weekend

I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy.

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Austrian Presidential Election is Important even if Overshadowed by Italy’s Referendum

Italy's referendum defeat is not simply a victory for populist-nationalist forces. Freedom Party victory in Austria is a victory for said forces. Even if Hofer wins, there are sufficient checks that make it difficult to hold EU or EMU referendum.

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FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets

Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows.

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FX Daily, November 23: Dollar Sees Flat Consolidation while the Equity Advance Fizzles in Europe

The US dollar is trading inside yesterday's ranges against the euro and yen. The dollar's tone matches the consolidation in the debt market ahead of today's slew of US data and tomorrow's holiday. Tokyo markets were on holiday.

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Global Wealth Update: 0.7 percent Of Adults Control $116.6 Trillion In Wealth

Today Credit Suisse released its latest annual global wealth report, which traditionally lays out what is perhaps the biggest reason for the recent "anti-establishment" revulsion: an unprecedented concentration of wealth among a handful of people, as shown in its infamous global wealth pyramid, an arrangement which as observed by the "shocking" political backlash of the past few months suggests that the lower 'levels' of the pyramid are...

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The Italian Job

Italy is the epicenter of the next potential populist "shock." A defeat of the referendum is seen as intensifying the political risk. Renzi has wavered again regarding his political future if the referendum loses.

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You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization

You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said: Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.

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European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.

The European Central Bank (ECB), creator of the Euro, currently claims to hold 504.8 tonnes of gold reserves. These gold holdings are reflected on the ECB balance sheet and arose from transfers made to the ECB by Euro member national central banks, mainly in January 1999 at the birth of the Euro. As of the end of December 2015, these ECB gold reserves were valued on the ECB balance sheet at market prices and amounted to €15.79 billion.

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