Tag Archive: inflation

Real Wages Really Inconsistent

2017-02-16

Average Weekly Earnings Production and Nonsupervisory August 2007 - February 2017

Real average weekly earnings for the private sector fell 0.6% year-over-year in January. It was the first contraction since December 2013 and the sharpest since October 2012. The reason for it is very simple; nominal wages remain stubbornly stagnant but now a rising CPI subtracts even more from them.

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A New Frame Of Reference Is Really All That Is Necessary To Start With

2017-02-15

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-15

Evolution Fractional Lending Bank Reserves 1900 - 1921

In the middle of 1919, the United States was beset by a great many imbalances. Having just conducted a wartime economy, almost everything before then had been absorbed by the World War I effort. With fiscal restraint subsumed by national emergency, inflation was the central condition. Given that the Federal Reserve was by then merely a few years old, no one was quite sure what to do about it.

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Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

2017-02-13

by Tyler Durden

2017-02-13

On Friday, after it emerged that as part of Marine Le Pen's strategic vision for France, should she win, is a return to the French franc as well as redenomination of some €1.7 billion in French (non-international law) bonds, both rating agencies and economists sounded the alarm, warning it would "amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012, threatening chaos to the world...

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Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

2017-01-08

by EconMatters

2017-01-08

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks...

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WTI Crude tumbles To $49 Handle, Erases OPEC/NOPEC Deal Gains

2016-12-15

by Tyler Durden

2016-12-15

But, but, but... growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again... Well that de-escalated quickly... As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th.

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Healthcare: Inflation Hidden in Plain Sight

2016-11-24

by Charles Hugh Smith

2016-11-24

Charles Hugh Smith shows how health care costs are exploding in the United States and how this will lead sooner or later to inflation.

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Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

2016-10-18

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-18

Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

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Great Graphic: China’s PPI and Commodities

2016-10-14

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-14

China's PPI rose for the first time in four years. It is related to the rise in commodities. Yet there are good reasons there is not a perfect fit between China's PPI and commodity prices. US and UK CPI to be reported next week, risk is on the upside.

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Great Graphic: Low Wages in US Rising

2016-08-29

by Marc Chandler

2016-08-29

The bottom of the US wage scale is rising. The added wage costs are being blunted by less staff turnover, hiring and training costs. It is consistent with our expectation of higher price pressures.

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Great Graphic: The Decline in Durable Goods Prices

2016-08-02

by George Dorgan

2016-08-02

This economic graph is maybe the most important in the last decade. Service prices are rising, while goods prices have steadily fallen. The main reason for us is the possibility to outsource big parts of the durables supply-chain to China and East Asia. This is where productivity growth happens. Prices of services, however, are ever increasing. …

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Economic Forecasts for 2015: Swiss Banks were too Optimistic

Our analysis of the forecasts of economic data for 2015 shows that the Swiss banks were too optimistic for most data. US growth, the oil price, inflation and interest rates are far lower than expected. The errors for stock indices were smaller.

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Keith Weiner: Inflation Caused the Greek Tragedy

By inflation, I don’t refer to rising consumer prices in Athens. My Greek friends tell me that prices have been steady there in recent years. The focus on prices is the greatest sleight of hand ever perpetrated. It diverts your attention away from the real action. Inflation is the counterfeiting of credit. It is borrowing, when you can’t pay and you know it. Inflation is taking money under false pretenses, and issuing fraudulent bonds. This...

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The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the "risk aversion game", the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil...

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(1) What Determines FX Rates?

The effects of so-called “currency wars” and other central bank actions are small compared to the long-term impact made by these five catalysts, which include credit cycles, trade balance, differences in economic growth, and more.

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(3) Inflation, Central Banks and Interest Rates

In this chapter we connect three related concepts: inflation, central banks and interest rates.

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The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices

Gold and silver are the most complicated assets to price. Stocks, currencies, commodities mostly depend on their fundamental data, supply and demand. Gold and silver, however, are priced indirectly.

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Vieles wird teurer doch das Deflationsgespenst bleibt am Leben

2015-01-01

by Markus M. Müller

2015-01-01

Die SNB wird nicht müde, uns vor der bösen Deflation zu warnen und die Inflationserwartungen tief zu halten: SNB: «Deflationsrisiken nochmals zugenommen» – Handelszeitung, 11.12.14 Mittelfristige Inflationserwartungen weiterhin tief und stabil – SNB,...

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Peter Schiff’s Message to Switzerland: Preserve Your Wealth, Gold is Better than Pegging to the Euro

Peter Schiff, an Austrian economist who predicted the financial crisis urges the Swiss to preserve their wealth. Therefore, they should vote yes in the gold referendum. He thinks that buying gold is better than pegging to the euro. The Swiss will be better off if they possess a strong currency. Pegging to the euro implies that the Swiss Franc will become a new Italian Lira, Peseta or French Franc.

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